You want the DGZ saturated with lift through that layer, so a thicker DGZ provides a much larger favorable window. Basically just increases the size of the target.
Ratios will probably be mediocre due to the warming layer aloft, but I doubt there will be much paste in CNE. More than likely a flip to sleet before hitting 32F
I'm guessing 15-17". The Hudson Coop is at 15.5" and I've measured 16". That site avg is 33.7" ytd, so tracking about 40-50% of normal, but up from the 10% in mid Jan.
Gonna have to wait a few more hours. Probably post 7-8pm around here. Maybe a little earlier the bigger bands/bright banding southwest moves in starts dynamically cooling things.
It's pretty warm aloft today. Highs will depend on how much mixing there is. If there's light rain around this afternoon it'll cap them, if its dry it wouldn't be hard to pop near 40 for alot of areas. CAA really doesn't start til after 23-0z