Euro op and AIFS are just about the coldest guidance at the sfc tonight. Euro op has definitely been cold biased at night lately, but i havent really noticed it with AIFS. Gonna be interesting to see how well it advects southwest.
Hrrr is really cold with this (probably too cold), but I find it a little intersting because its been too warm at times, esp at the surface this season.
Need that high to back off the end of next week for any big warmth. Gonna be hard to scour out if becomes entrenched. 12z gfs nearly kills the entire window with CAD for eastern areas. Euro AI has been doing it too at times.