Great Snow 1717

The issue is the entire sample size we have to work with is small considering the age of the earth. We really do not know how many 3rd year Ninas there has actually been. Add in a climate that has fluctuated over time and it makes the use of analog years "risky" when it comes to predicting weather. As a chess player knowledge is power. Most chess databases contain millions of games. I can search the database for moves and positions. I can find the results for the games that had a certain move played at a certain time in the game. The break down is percent of wins for white, the percent of wins for black and the number of draws. Since there are so many games in the sample size it makes trusting those percentages far easier. Unfortunately for mets and weather enthusiasts no such weather database comes close to having the amount information found in most chess databases so it makes determining outcomes far more difficult. Far into the future the database for weather will be far better than what it is currently. The sample sizes by then will be quite a bit larger. Of course by then there may be the equivalent of the chess super program Alpha Zero that predicts weather with a 99 % accuracy rate.

Agree, climate change has just had too much of an impact. I'd be very cautious about using analog years from the 1980's.

Personally, I would never consider using analog years from 100+ years ago.

Candidate for post of the winter even though it's not winter...

Agree....about as dull and boring as possible

Good luck with that lol....not happening

Bet the house on warmth..

I know lol...just wait....San Diego will have a 4 foot blizzard this winter..storm will move across the country and just south enough of SNE to be a miss for the area..... Scene outside of Ray's home as storm passes south..

It's like the area has become the San Diego of the northeast...

Just do not complain when the "heat" extends well into the fall and perhaps at least the early part of winter.

Now days school would have been closed for a week prior to Donna hitting the area..

Has there been a 1st hurrah?

As I mentioned I was going off of my memory...I recall reading about the storm but it has been a while. I'd have to through the 2-volume set of Early American Winters to find any other significant ice storms in CT.

The ice storm of 1898 would rank as one of the worse in CT history. If my memory is serving me well, I believe the greatest impacts were in western and northwestern CT

If you like being in extremely crowded places like this, then go..it's a zoo .traffic is a nightmare..parking is a nightmare...loads of strange people.. Dated, from 2017 but you get the idea..... Salem Halloween Road Closures, Traffic | Salem, MA Patch

So far this thread hasn't lived up to the hype. I'm strongly considering starting a new thread to whine about this whine/banter thread!

In this age of increasing climate change persistence often wins out. Usually once an overall pattern sets up it is difficult for the pattern to change/breakdown for any length of time.. At times there may a change that lasts for a bit but then the pattern reverts back. As we head deeper into the fall we need to keep an eye out for any signs of a real permanent change.

You know it has been a quiet season when people post" the 384 hour GFS looks good".

Are existential questions even allowed in a thread dedicated to whining???

Can I whine about there not being many whiney posts so far in this thread??? I am disappointed!

That is some of the finest whining I have ever seen!!...

If you want perfection, well that is going to cost you...

hey you recalled the wrong year...

The DT and JB Sideways Remembrance Thread...