Great Snow 1717

Below normal snowfall and above average warmth equates to an F- grade from me...so we will just have to disagree on the grade. A D grade in my book is still a rat of a winter...

You are far too sensitive when it comes to your winter forecast lol

Well they can give a grade for the winter...mine is an F-..and even that is a generous grade..

it was still a rat as I expected it to be...lol

Well I still would have graded it an F- winter. ..it was awful

Even with the blizzard it was an F- winter......a blizzard in 16 wouldn't have saved SNE from a terrible winter......and keep in mind that our area did meet the guidelines for a blizzard on 1/29...

I think many people discounted the warm fall when preparing their winter forecast(s). It was a historically warm fall. And it was the main reason why I had very low expectations for the winter of 21-22. Prior to this winter I only had lower expectations for one winter and that was the winter of 15-16. Dec- Above average temp Jan-Below average temp Feb-above average temp Mar-well on its way to being a well above average temp month. Forecasts for March that called for it to be a cold and snowy month are going to bust badly.

In reviewing your forecast, I noticed that you did not mention the months leading into the winter season. ..in other word what was taking place weatherwise.

What do you think the keys are for improving seasonal forecasts for New England?

How long has the analog information been available for??

as I mentioned...the mets experience and knowledge of the area played a role, which means taking into consideration past seasons. And many mets do just rip and read a model(s) to make their forecasts. How many actually make a forecast without referencing the models?

But you have to keep in mind that back then there was less information available to mets. There wasn't mentioning of models and analog years. It was more of an old school approach to forecasting. And that led to mets at times having much different forecasts. Mets back then often took the time to explain their forecasts which is far different than now. Now mets are like Brian Kenney on the MLB Network...a whole lot of numbers and graphics. At one time, back in the dark ages Channel 7 has a weekend met that really went out on a limb....he would give a forecast for the next 7 days during his Sunday evening weather segment ....which was unheard of back then. the following Sunday he would grade his forecast for the previous 7 days and then forecast the next 7 days..I have long forgotten his name. Walt Drag is someone I consider to be an old school met. And I mean that as a compliment. I really enjoyed reading the discussions when he was at Box. I like Tip's approach also.

Prior to this winter 76-77 was being bandied about as an analog year. I mentioned that I would not use that year as an analog year because of climate change. And because it was 45 years ago. Back then the book The Cooling was a popular book....now no one considers that there is an ice age coming. If my memory is serving me well the book was released in 1976. The timing could have not been better because the winter of 76-77 rolled in. That winter provided a lot of creditability to the book. Speaking of Cosgrove. At one point one of his analog years was 95-96....and then he decided to drop it.

Back in the day analog years were not mentioned in winter forecasts. What was mentioned were the pattern(s) leading into the winter months and where the main storm tracks were during the fall. It was more of old school meteorology approach. The mets then would come up with a winter forecast based on their experience, knowledge of the area, and what was taking place during the months leading into the winter. Currently Matt Noyes comes the closest. Prior to each month he provides a monthly forecast. He doesn't mention analog years. And he gives his thoughts on why he is making the forecast for that month. For example, for this March he forecasted the area would likely have normal temps but above normal precip. And he explained why.

I equate using analog years during this time of climate change to someone thinking a starting pitcher who threw 85-90 mph back in the 90's would have the same success now that he had back then. Jamie Moyer for example. Moyer would get crushed if he was pitching now. A few years ago Larry Cosgrove made a great point...essentially that climate change has to be factored in when putting together a seasonal forecast. Another thing that I am not a fan of is comparing temps to 30 year averages. I think temps should be compared to the entire dataset for a reporting location...and yes I do realize that for some cities/towns the location has changed over time. Doing so would provide far more evidence of how much the climate has actually changed.

Did you use analog years to come up with your forecast for March???

Not a fan of analog years.

How many analog years busted badly for the winter of 21-22???

"Sir all of these people are refusing to leave unless Anthony is called into work on Friday"....

Exactly!....Same goes for surgery, best to find a surgeon that specializes in treating athletes. As you know a skilled physical therapist can lessen the time required for physical therapy. And the results are much better.

...and let me add this....if you are having that much pain then you should call the doctor that performed the surgery.

Make sure you do your physical therapy with a therapist that specializes in sports injury rehab even if the injury isn't sports related. ....makes a significant difference. I hope you are doing better sooner rather than later.

Snow(for me) is one of the " ingredients that makes for a good winter but it has to be combined with at least average temps and snowpack.

Best to have low expectations and be pleasantly surprised than to be bitterly disappointed...

a dud of a winter...