Great Snow 1717

It is because they fail to understand that there is a difference between having a different point of view and cancelling winter....

I never knew you loved popcorn...

Don't worry Carl would have you shooting 200 in a matter of a few weeks

I "love" watching TV mets when they show 2-3 model outputs but then fail to make a forecast. ....makes it into a multiple choice game for the viewers! "Honey I'm going with the GFS"...."not me I think the NAM is going to be right"

I wonder which model Carl relied on????

Too bad because rumor has it you were going to have a legendary caddy..

That goes back to what I mentioned yesterday-pattern recognition. There are times when that happens, meaning a 10-14 day stretch of overall mild weather followed by a stretch of 10-14 days of cool/cold weather. And there can be patterns withing a pattern. For example it is stormy when it is mild but not stormy when it is cool/cold...and vice versa. Ask chess players about pattern recognition in chess and they will tell you that it is vitally important to being a good chess player. Understanding patterns helps to "unlock" chess positions. The same applies in weather but far too many fallback on the models rather than being able to recognize patterns.

We are only in the infancy of understanding the effects of climate change, but I would not be surprised if it is leading to or will lead to more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas. And longer lasting ones.

Have you considered having your own channel on YouTube or Twitch? I think the channel would do very well. Perhaps post weekly updates on YouTube or Twitter.

it sure doesn't seem as though the pattern change will be "complete by the 25th"

...what is even worse is the over reliance on the models rather than pattern recognition. Happy Thanksgiving

Well written!!! And I agree with you regarding the reactions/replies when people express doubt and different opinions.

As always, thanks for sharing your thoughts on weather. You are one of the most knowledgeable forum members. AMWX is fortunate to have you as member!

The article is nearly 5 years old but the problem with the crows has only gotten worse since the time it was written. Now there are flocks of geese battling the crows. At times it is like watching a "dogfight" in the sky. https://www.eagletribune.com/news/in-lawrence-a-massive-and-wily-flock-of-crows-delivers-a-winter-mix-of-urban/article_13895400-0dd1-11e8-acf5-c378a515f53

Did I mention snow??? There are more geese in the Methuen area than I can ever recall. They are battling the crows for territory....it's like 2 gangs having a turf war.

My memory isn't hazy at all...lol....

Back in the day mid to late November did not "look" early April. There was a obvious difference.

There are flocks of geese in the Methuen area. Grass in my yard is still growing. The other day my wife and I were driving to a basketball tournament, and along the way we commented on how it looks more like early april.

Santa will NOT be returning to your home!

but, but the pattern change was supposed to be complete by the 25th.....

Right around 9 AM...

That makes too much sense...

I also like snow in November BUT November is not a winter month, nor will it ever be a winter month.

There have been far more major snowstorms in March than in November. It's not even close.