..it is why analog forecasts often fail. Larry Cosgrove is one of the few who has mentioned that climate change needs to be factored in for seasonal forecasts.
Next time it snows in Methuen I'm going to have the Methuen DPW dump truck loads of snow at Ray's place....then Ray can post photos of outside of his home..
Box has legitimate concerns about the impact of "warm" air from the ocean impacting snowfall totals. At this point they are being conservative which seems to be the way to go as things stand right now.
I do not think there will be a significant pattern change until the parade of storms into the Pacific NW comes to an end. At this point it is anyone's guess when that will be.
Much like with analytics in baseball the models allow people to go searching for the answers they want to find...in other words the most favorable outcomes.