Great Snow 1717

A strong late entry for the post of the year award!!!

All aboard!!!...

Walt, Thanks for the reply!

Agree

So are you saying that I can tell the people who are still waiting for the December Train to arrive to go home???

Perhaps a rival to the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard

Agree

A candidate for post of the thread!

Exactly!

"Pattern" is one of the most use meteorological terms, it is impossible to ban it from the lexicon

Back in the day the setup for late Thursday/Friday would often lead to a secondary low developing along the eastern seaboard. That seems to be happening with less frequency than in the past. Can you offer up some reasons as to why that is happening less often? Thank you.

Incorrect, back in the day meteorologists focused far more on pattern recognition than the models. Leading into the winter season it was common for on air(TV and radio) mets to mention the weather patterns of the fall leading into the winter months. A key for them was where the main storm track(s) had set up since late summer. Also we know that certain patterns are more likely to be associated with different types of weather. For example a pattern that features a trough in the west usually isn't all that good for winter weather prospects in the east

Alpha Zero plays such remarkable high level chess that even grandmasters admit that humans would not be able to "find" some of Alpha Zero's moves.

The strongest chess engine in the world is Alpha Zero. The "program" was never "taught" how to play chess and understand chess. It learned how to play incredibly strong chess by playing millions of games against itself. All AI machine based learning

I do not think you are overreacting at all. The so-called upgrades to the models haven't worked all that well. Perhaps it is time to re-engineer" the models back to their previous state(s). I've known a few people who wrote software. All said doing upgrades is difficult. If given the choice all would have elected to just write new software rather than to attempt to upgrade existing software.

Agree...and it is why many analog based forecasts fail.

Agree. There is far too much reliance on the models as opposed to pattern recognition.

We know that to be true. That is not correct. Global warming has been a concern for decades, but many people chose to ignore it. The term “global warming” appears for the first time - HISTORY

Exactly....

The issue is the use of 30 year norms rather than the entire database. Makes no sense to not use the entire database for comparison(s)

Something tells me chaim bloom isn't in charge of that..

Climate change leads to pattern change and different outcomes.

Agree, far too many people fail to mention it or have not noticed.

Snow to rain situations certainly impacted snowfall totals more back in the day than now.

Don't worry JB will have the Little Ice Age following the nationwide warmth...keep the faith..