Great Snow 1717

Here in NE Mass there wasn't a lot of snow after early March 2015. It did remain cold into early April. I moved into my home mid December 93. The first snowstorm occurred a few days after Christmas. Prior to that there were several coastal storms but it was too warm for snow BUT it was a good sign that there were coastal storms.

for the winter of 14-15 there was little winter weather until a historic pattern set up in late January. That pattern is likely a once every 300-400 year pattern.

Even in the mountains in New England there has been a change.

Using analog years is one of the main reasons why so many winter forecasts fail.

Agree

Winters are the same length but there is far less winter type weather during winter. People are just going to have to accept the impact that climate change has had on winter.

Every time the models get improved they get worse...I'm with you it's time for a "palace coup" to return the old GFS..

Forky got forked...

Exactly lol

Correct

It is because far too many people fail to account for climate change. The overuse of analog years also contributes to poor forecasting. Using analog years would make some sense if the climate had remained essentially the same. The source region for the cold air has warmed considerably. Larry Cosgrove is one of the few Mets who mentions that climate change has to be a consideration when developing a seasonal forecast. Another thing that leads to poor forecasting is a lack of pattern recognition. There is an over reliance on the models and various indexes such aa the AO PNA and NAO. Just look at what has been occuring....one system after another into the Pacific NW. Back in the day forecasters on the east coast would often mention that a stormy pattern for the Pacific NW doesn't bode well for winter weather enthusiasts on the east coast.....now it is rarely mentioned.

I always love that one lol

Great post!!!

You should post more often!!

The WC is a great sporting event!

As always, thanks for sharing your thoughts with the rest of us!

that does not answer my question....you are essentially doing what victims of fraud do....they want to believe so badly that they discount unfavorable possibilities/outcomes...

..and what does that have to do with the models and mets possibly being wrong???...

We all know that has never happened before....

Weather heresy....keep a watch out for the pitchforks...

Candidate for post of the year!

Correct

......can't make people "listen"......some will poo-poo any and all dissenting views on the pattern/winter.

and many good deals to be had on a toaster at this time of year!