Great Snow 1717

I have never been a fan of using 30 year norms.

oh gee I forgot you turn your attention to winter weather once the Mets have been eliminated from contention....but isn't that usually by the end of July??? lol

Not at all this isn't Fox News lol

one of the problems is comparing current day temps/precip to 30 year norms. Current day temps should be compared to the long term data set for reporting stations. And yes I do realize that the "official" gathering place for the data has changed within cities and towns.

Perhaps in the new climate regime the fall is going to be weighed more heavily...

I hope he is going to be right BUT at this point there needs to be a massive pattern change. I find the bolded interesting because you begin to look for winter weather in October...

Did you base some of your past winter forecasts on facts???

Well you are entitled to your thoughts and opinions and I am entitled to mine. We disagree.....good luck with your cold and snowy winter forecast.

If I was agreeing with you, you would say that I am making sense lol...

Time will tell....

Perhaps an attempt should be made to let a new model learn how to forecast on it's own. The chess super computer Alpha Zero learned to play extremely high level chess by playing thousands upon thousands of games of chess against itself. The computer has never "seen" a game played by humans or other computers. The computer"learned" by trial and error. I am far from a computer expert although I did stay at a Holiday Day Inn Express last night but I wonder if a similar development can be taken to develop a new and much better weather model. From the Wiki article AlphaZero was trained solely via "self-play" using 5,000 first-generation TPUs to generate the games and 64 second-generation TPUs to train the neural networks, all in parallel, with no access to opening books or endgame tables. After four hours of training, DeepMind estimated AlphaZero was playing chess at a higher Elo rating than Stockfish 8; after nine hours of training, the algorithm defeated Stockfish 8 in a time-controlled 100-game tournament (28 wins, 0 losses, and 72 draws).[1][2][3] The trained algorithm played on a single machine with four TPUs.

C'mon that is 1 month. September and October are months that lead into the winter season. One of the warmest falls if not the warmest fall on record.

No surprise. The pattern leading into the winter months was terrible.

You should read some of his posts in the Off Topic section....

I was only kidding...you are more than welcome. It is a lot better for you to post here than in the cesspool otherwise known as the Off Topic forum... Are you still celebrating Riley's departure??? Lol

You might want to check the Oklahoma version of the map of the USA ...Oklahoma doesn't border New England..

Perhaps in Oklahoma ...otherwise known as the land where college football teams play little to no defense..

.. and the odds of another 14-15 is ????

You have been mentioning a pattern change since October lol...

What do you like about the current pattern?!??

95-96 incoming..

That should come as no surprise. There continues to be no sign of a cold/snowy pattern being established.

Feels like spring...

but they do get sucked in....as in sucked in to a massive blackhole lol