SR Airglow

Flakes in Boston!

Flurries in the Back Bay.

I’d assume it’s that 24 hour criteria is 8” and that it’s spread out over close to 48 here, but I definitely LOLed at the 4-11” advisory for CT when I checked BOX this morning. This is what @WxWatcher007 went with yesterday evening for CT, a little more aggressive than consensus, but I think I like it after seeing the overnight runs. Think we should hit the low end pretty easily and there’s opportunity for the high end depending on how round 2 sets up/how strong round 1 is. Still not convinced the dryslot is as dramatic as advertised, although it’s definitely real to some extent.

I’ll be at Clarke’s 12/21 or 12/23 at 7 PM if you are. Anyone else in?

That's very true and I agree completely. I remember we used to see models establish in 2-3 camps, they'd persist for several runs, then one caved to the other and we'd have some sort of consensus - most of my discussions would be something along the lines of "the NAM caved to the Euro". Now over the last couple seasons it seems like we get consensus much faster (4-5 days out even) and then lose it several times as the models become much more sensitive to variations in data. I'm sure we'll adapt and become less trusting with time, but it definitely takes some getting used to for forecasting. My unscientific hunch from a data science perspective is that higher resolution and more frequent panels is making things more sensitive and compounding errors, but I don't have anything to back that up. Has more sampling data been added over the last couple of years? That could explain things as well to an extent, but I don't believe there have been expansions? Take it all with a grain of salt because I don't really know the details of how models work behind the scenes, but interesting to think about for sure.

Not only has this one had one huge change, it's arguably had three; went NW, then went pretty far SE, then came back and now seems to be going SE again. And all inside 72 ish hours. Wild. Not sure what's causing this, but it only seems to be more and more prevalent in modeling over the last couple of winters, sure makes this a more aggravating (but also more enjoyable) hobby. Updated BTV/GYX maps seem reasonable, but I still think there's time for changes here given how variable this has been. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Probably will make the final call tomorrow morning on 93N, but would like to have some idea nailed down tonight, definitely still have some time though as you said for this to go either way. Yup, closest mountain to Boston that's what I would consider a large resort (2k+ of vert) with great snowmaking, decent natural, and some pretty fun terrain. Unfortunately that means it's often a gongshow on busy weekends, but it's still a great time if you know the place and know where to not go. Guess we'll see what happens over the next couple of runs, too bad Sugarbush has so little open as they'd be the winner here. They generally are pretty aggressive opening things on natural but probably need another storm or two first.

That was my gut feel as well, Loon probably has the higher ceiling but also a far lower floor. Should be a fun one regardless, could be 55* and raining so I’ll take what I can get in November.

If you were gonna ski tomorrow would you do Loon, Killington, or make the haul to Sugarbush on limited terrain because the other two have too much of a mixing risk? My gut says Loon and K will be okay but the mix line flirts too closely to both of them for my taste.

Prepping the skis to launch for Loon; I’d think their far enough north to remain all snow and it seems like the QPF axis will be pretty similar between there and SR so an hour less driving is appealing. This has been quite the back and forth on the guidance, wouldn’t be surprised if we keep seeing more ticks as it’s a pretty sensitive setup. Good to be back model watching again, forgot how addictive this hobby can be, but gonna be a long winter if every system is this turbulent in the short-mid range.

12/21 or 12/23 please, never made one of these in my 5 years in Boston since I’m always traveling and am again this year but I’ll be back by then and would love to finally meet some folks in person. First weekend in December would work well too.

Took a two hour ski tour around the hill during the height of the banding (5:30 - 7:30 ish) and that redeemed a lot of the negatives about this event. Not sure what the final was here since I didn't keep any measurements but likely a respectable amount in the end - 15" ish?

Yeah we're doing much better now - not pounding yet but solid improvement in flake size and fluff factor. Heading up to the top of the hill to attempt to build a ski jump shortly since driving to wawa is probably a no go right now.

Finally starting to pick up here - let's make this band count!

Embrace the bust.