Windspeed

Posted in the main thread in the tropical subforum but posting here as it is just incredible footage. Sudduth mounted a GoPro in Mexico Beach. In all the recent years of impressive landfall footage, this takes the cake. Some of the gusts/bursts look similar to shockwaves:

ECMWF is now on board for a Portugal landfall as well. That stink jet though. Could be bad timing for landfall and PT transition.

That "no surge" guy must have read comments somewhere on the internet that Panama City would be spared a storm surge, and thought that would apply as far south as Mexico Beach but in all probability the storm surge was something like 3' around Panama City, 10' just a little south of Tyndall and appeared to be 12-15 feet at least in Mexico Beach. There would have been a horrendous result if Michael had been even five miles to the left of its actual path, ten to fifteen would have been worst case scenario (for metro Panama City). 

That's the only good thing we can say about this strongest of all cat-2 hurricanes.

We almost always have a worse scenario with every bad landfall. Michael is no exception. Actually, perhaps 8-10 miles further west would have been the death knell. It would have put PC in the worst of the eastern eyewall and PCB in the worst if the western eyewall and maximized destruction for the most infrastructure damage and people in harms way. Fortunately that did not occur, but no less downplays the catastrophe for the region.

Thanks to Leslie and Michael, Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) is now 119 for the Atlantic Basin, pushing the 2018 season above climateological mean of 111 considered for an above-normal season. 153 ACE is the mark for a hyperactive season like the one we experienced in 2017.

So far 2018 has resulted in 14 storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

This will probably be poor neglected Nadine's only mention here. lol..

Leslie's track guidance has shifted north significantly due to deeper longwave trough interaction. Baroclinic influences by that interaction may also bring hurricane force gusts to Portugal coast as a post-tropical low. 10/12 12z GFS is now suggesting this as well. NHC 11 AM AST:
 

Quote

The intensity forecast shows Leslie only slowly weakening as a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours due to a combination of cool SSTs and increasing shear from the trough. However, simulated satellite imagery and model fields suggest that Leslie will transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, likely still at hurricane intensity as shown by the global models.

53°F and overcast. If this garbage low level coverage can clear out, perhaps radiational cooling can get us down close to 40° by dawn. 30s might be asking too much.

Tonight feels freaking amazing! I hate Michael happened to the SE. But combined with the high amplitude trough, these are the most seasonal Autumn temperatures we've had. Still don't expect a frost for another few weeks. Eager for that Fall foliage.

SENC is on the verge of Kevin Martin troll status. 

Perhaps anyone that engages SENC appears gullible, but when someone posts images or data sets from obs to support a claim, it should to be analyzed and explained like anything else. Otherwise, such posts can be misleading. There is also the possibility this person is legitimate and believes their point of view. Not everyone that reads these forums are capable of telling the difference however.

Crazy rambling rant? Sure, easy to ignore. Posting data or images to support a claim, no matter how misconstrued? Yeah, that's going to need to be explained. At the risk of having fed a troll, data is data. At any rate, if a discussion gets out of hand, there are mods.

ok Lets go  to Port Saint Joe.. Weather Station,, Gulf County Emergency Operations Center WeatherSTEM Station 11.4 miles from Landfall.. (Mexico beach)  I DO NOT see Cat 4 or 5 Winds do you?  

Once again, if you would just do some actual analysis of the data you are viewing, you would have quickly realized that station lost power in the preceding hour before landfall.

Notice the last report, 12:53 PM. Port Saint Joe, FL is located in the Eastern timezone. Landfall time was approx 17:33z or 12:33 PM CDT. Simply put, that last reading was at 11:53 AM CDT.

Again, the last reading ended with power failure or a malfunction due to conditions, but before closest proximity of eyewall and the highest winds experienced at that location.

Edit: Perhaps semantics, but for posterity, PSJ WStem failure was approx 40 minutes prior to 17:33z/12:33 PM CDT landfall.

For the sake of accuracy, Google was a few ticks off, not that you'll notice from eyeballing the map. This is dead on for 29.408 N 84.858 W, the station in question. And this is exactly where you'd expect such readings:

The pressure didn’t even fall below 29.2, which means it bottomed out around 990. Way outside the eyewall. 

Man, trying to navigate all these armed mines and contribute any meaningful analyzing discussion with regards to Michael's observed meteorological phenomenon is a good lesson in futility. It's more than enough to present your opinion and evidence in a debate, it's another to hijack all the discussion because the majority disagrees with you, much more demand everyone believe you.

Present your point, your reasoning and evidence, whatever; debate it, amend it later if there is new evidence to support your claim if you must; but in the meantime, get over yourself and move on. People get so damn offended when not agreed with. It may be a science forum, but you're not defending your dissertation. Step away. Chill out. Stop being miserable and go enjoy life for a while.

But SENC has aerial survey photos from 17 years ago he searched on google. Oh and lets not forget bouys. Clearly all the resources at the tips of his fingers he needs to assign wind damage and post reoccurring rant after rant a mere 6 hours after landfall to discredit a 919 mb Category 4 and the NHC.

"But the SLABS! The... SLABS! ..... Anemometers!

Politicized..

NHC!.....They

are not...

**GOD*****

Government...

CONSPIRACY!!!!

You young whipper SNAPPERS! ...

69 SURVIVOR!......and

OBX bound!!!!!"

These  picture are  about 17 years old..

Your reading comprehension skills also need improvement. You completely missed the point. There have yet to be damage survey flights for Michael over the swath of landfall shoreline. Yet you use older ones as a comparison example to argue intensity.

Do you know what you are even looking at? ( I think you are in your  younger 20's Myself)   you  have a lot to learn My friend.. 

Like grammar? Perhaps the ability to engage in a mature debate? You of all people are telling me I must be young and have a lot to learn. Grow up.

If this was even a "Cat 4 or even a Cat 3",, THIS is what We would be looking at.. I'm not seeing it here.. As far as Michael..   

 

Neither has anyone else. Usually helicopter survey flights occur the next day or days.

This discussion about the real wind speeds (on land) is pointless because (a) instruments failed before those might have been recorded at some locations, and ( we have yet to see any documented evidence of actual wind speeds near Mexico Beach. There may be none available. 

Sometimes an assertion can be true for unexpected reasons too. If there's a 12-15 foot storm surge with waves added, the maximum winds will be dislocated higher by at least 12-15 feet. Look at the readings from any ocean buoy in a passing eyewall situation. They rarely get anywhere near the dropsonde measured wind speeds within 50 feet of the mean sea surface, partly because of the low exposure altitudes and partly because of the wave environment. It's hard to get a 145 mph wind between two 30' waves. 

This was no cat-2 but a sustained cat-3 will do considerable damage, a lot of the outcome depends on duration rather than peak gusts. I was living near a tornado path about thirty years ago and watched very brief gusts hit trees near my home that seemed to be EF-2 (like the tornado itself) but they only lasted a few seconds and the trees were not destroyed as they would have been if the gusts had continued for 2-3 minutes.

Michael had sub 940 mb pressure readings for nearly 8 hours prior to landfall. Think about that. Before anyone should have to defend the official intensity statements, it would seem to me someone would need to explain their hypothesis against the meteorological fact above as to how in the hell maximum sustained winds never exceeded C2 at landfall. I don't care that we've yet to have an official or unofficial anemometer reading analyzed. There are way more logical explanations for the latter.

I've just thought it was always weird to have to remind everyone that you aren't an official source of information on a weather forum. I mean, I get it if you are making videos or posting media like Levi Cowan or Jeff Masters on your weather blog, regardless if you are a professional. But if a person uses a poster's forecast opinion on a weather forum over an official agency to make life or property decisions, regardless if the poster is a professional, well... what the hell are you doing? Weather forums are for professionals, enthusiasts and amateurs to discuss weather and science-related matters. But policing and forcing that is annoying and counterintuitive.

Meh, I like the community that posts here. I also enjoy the discussions more. The ****show was extreme, yes, but not typical of most landfall threads here. Mods volunteer their time so I'm not going to criticize, but I do wish the meteorological thread had went into Storm Mode last night when it became clear that we were going to have a major landfall.

Having said that, I enjoy not having to type a bloody damn disclaimer every time I want to analyze development, modeling or a forecast, or be careful about my opinion if is not in line with an official agency.

just surrender to the flow, dude. it'll all be okay.  

HEY MODS!!...

https://www.youtube.com/embed/MMzd40i8TfA?

Damage from a fire caused by the storm.  Still valid.  He's either a willful jackass or inept.  We've been getting a ton of EMAC requests in the past couple of hours to FL and now GA.  This is gonna take a while to rebuild from

Yes, I am aware. But it's a laughable comparison to use in reference to their "storm survey" and then use a photo from Panama City Beach, which was on the outter edge or just outside the western eyewall. Not trying to downplay Sandy's damage but this is getting ridiculous. They could have at least made an effort to find actual surge or wind damage. Search engines aren't that hard to use. There are plenty of bad Sandy images to choose from besides damage from a fire, which is clearly going to be deceiving if not pointed out. I bet they didn't even realize that was from a fire.

Look what Hurricane Sandy did as a Category 1 compared to Michael as a 3.
Queens is flattened for blocks but these structures right on the beach in Florida remain. 

I didn't expect Florida to dodge such a bullet.  This morning it looked like it was going to be really bad. From my post storm survey they came out relatively well.