Windspeed

8 minutes ago, Reb said:

NAM coming in much wetter than 12z

Much wetter with a stronger and more pronounced surface low over the panhandle at 42 hr. 850-700 mb weakness is cranking back over ETN by 42 hr and a thumping in progress by 48 hr.

Not surprised at the NW back building in the 12z ECMWF. At any rate, we're in hirez meso range. Global modeling at this point probably won't change or matter much with the 850-600 mb level weakness against the HP within 24 hours of event in progress. It's hirez meso time from this point forward folks. Good luck to everyone! Hope this event verifies for everyone and the sharp cutoff stays NW enough to produce for those posting/lurking.

0z NAM was the sweet spot for NE TN/SWVA region. 06z and 12z NAM is caving to the more southerly suppressed trend as well now. The 850-700 mb feature advancing out of E TX/Ark/W TN that was very evident on previous runs just isn't as strong versus stronger heights over Ohio Valley and New England. Still time to swing back but clearly the trend remains South for this system:

I'd obviously much rather have a period of sleet than freezing rain. Dave Dierks @WCYB seems confident in 4-6 inches of snow for the Bristol area now but I do not want a period of freezing rain mixing in under that. Would mean damage to to grid and power outages galore. Of course, there is also the possibility that the 920 - 850 mb nose doesn't make it NE of Morristown/Greeneville. That would mean KTRI and Abingdon getting crushed with significant heavy wet snow and outages regardless.

I have bought into around 7 inches of heavy wet snow at this point for my location. I noticed the NAM crushes us but I just want to see if tonight's Euro stays in play. 36-48 hrs, we're getting into crunch time folks.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Despite all the problems and negativity, and I am plenty guilty of it myself, we are still a blessed country and nation of people. I also would like to say that I am very thankful for this forum and for the people who post here. It is a wonderful community and an avenue to excercise my love of meteorology and science. A big thanks to all of you! Here's to a full belly and many good conversations today. Cheers!

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/winter-outlook-2018-2019-return-of.html

Yeah, agree.  Eventually this will be a very large metro area.  Right now, everything is spread out.  Honestly, I like the small town feel.  I don't want the traffic and craziness that comes with a bigger city.  But I think it is coming whether I am ready for it or not.  TRI sits at the intersection of two major interstates and is close to two others.  It is within a days drive of like half of he US population.  I would certainly think that places like Church Hill, Mt Carmel, Gate City, Weber City, Bluff City, Jonesborough, Gray, Abindgon, Fall Branch, Elizabethton, Erwin, and Unicoi would become part of that.   I am sure that I am missing a few.  The combined statistical area(CSA) is made up of two metro areas in Johnson City and Kingsport/Bristol.  The CSA number is around 500,000 people.  I can just about guarantee that most people have no idea there are that many people up here.  I assume the CSA would include those smaller cities.  We just don't have an area with one conglomerate of a downtown.    And you know while southwest VA is mentioned as it rightfully should be, we also see a few folks from the extreme sections of SE KY that use this area for shopping and medical services.

https://www.citypopulation.de/php/usa-combmetro.php?cityid=304

One other thing that is cool about Johnson City is its proximity to the Gray Fossil Site.  Now that place is pretty cool.  I also heard on the radio this morning and had to do a double take...is that Kingsport was just recently ranked as the fifth fastest growing city in the state.  Not sure I buy that or even know how they arrived at that number, but I did year it.  So, it must be true, right?  

[mention=4352]weathertree4u[/mention], we have loaded you up with a ton of information.  We definitely support whatever decision that you make.  Good luck!!!!!  Let us know if we can help in any way like tnweathernut stated or if you have any other questions..

I put many hours of work into that fossil site as a student long before it was the gorgeous museum and education center that it is today. Probably even more hours sifting and picking through its fill sediment in a basement lab at ETSU. If anyone has yet to visit the Gray Fossil Site and Natural History Museum, please go. It's a wonderful experience, terrific people and so easily accessible. Also, if anyone is fascinated with the cave systems around here, Dr. Schubert is also brilliant in that respect.

HWRF has TC Gaja making landfall in India near Cat 4 intensity.

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds. However, these winds are forecast to lessen by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Still way early in modeling but if I had to anchor a call, I'd place confidence in higher range eastern Cumberland Plateau and SWVA for 3+ in. accumulations. Everything below 2k ft needs better modeling support at this point. But again, it's early.

12z ECMWF did crush SWVA and the I-81/I-77 interchange corridor. Pretty much the entire upper Northeast TN Valley Watershed at and above 2,000 ft, and all points North and East from Abingdon had great returns.

Classic tight QLCS tornado sig on that imbedded cell NE of Tupelo.

First tornado warning in the strong QLCS line just east of Clarksdale, MS.

It’s all in the wording. In regards to what actually happened to the island. It was washed away. It’s underwater is an oversimplification. Not every event is directly or fully attributable to climate change. That’s all, I’m not CNN basher at all, what does bother me is stretching the truth to push an agenda, one which I happen to agree with.

I agree about the bad wording, but my point was that the majority of outlets essentially reported the same thing. The attributed scientist was using the island as a laboratory to study sea level rise. Obviously the island is underwater directly due to the storm's effects, but the particular scientist involved is stating that as sea level rises, similar events will be more commonplace. I.e. it won't take as much to overwhelm flat land on atolls and surface bed rock at sea level, especially when hit by storms. I'm not sure if that is why CNN focused on the climate change bit or due to scientist involved, but they weren't alone.

TOR still going. This cell may be quite the longtracker and not even in the best dynamics yet. Most of this early coverage is within the slight risk.

Edit: More like may not be the longtracker. lol, not long after I made this post, the Natchitoches cell fell apart.

Supercell near Ringgold is impressive.

Possible first tornado in LA.

Latest HRRR around 11 PM EST / 10 PM CST.

Cloud coverage has broken over portions of MS and much of Tennessee. May aid in further destabilization. NE Mississippi and all the northern half of Alabama still looks thick as molasses though.

Nah, I think they didn't use the hatched area because their confidence in a high-end tornado event has decreased. If the EURO from late last week were to have verified, we should have been looking at at least a 15 hatch MDT if not HIGH risk by now. My how the "King" has been dethroned. Used to be it was the GFS you could always throw out for over-pumping setups in the medium range.

Yeah, the 00z ECMWF and the 12z even more so backed down on CAPE surface values and timing of surface-level backing winds. There is still strong low-level shear and 0-3km helicity but the mode looks to go quasi-linear early. The threat of discrete super cells from Northern MS to Nashville looks reduced versus runs up to a mere 24 hrs ago. I don't know if the ECMWF has necessarily been "dethroned" but it definitely had been more tornadic versus the GFS through yesterday. That doesn't mean we still won't see some intense action in the hatched region tonight, but it seems strong frontline winds and brief spinups were going to be the order of the night for the majority of the TN Valley regardless.

Edit: I originally said the threat "looks nothing like" with regards to N MS to Nashville. That's a bit of hyperbole. I should have said the threat is reduced. There is still a threat for tornadoes, the modeling and forecasted storm mode just looks more linear and messy versus what the global ECMWF had been showing into early weekend runs.

Despite the overlap of impressive shear and modest instability, this is not a slam dunk event. Pre frontal convection could interfere with available instability. Also, the shear to instability ratio may be too great. But, if deep updrafts flourish, they will easily rotate, and low level SRH will be supportive of tornadogenesis.

This is probably why we won't see an upgrade to moderate until early tomorrow afternoon, if there is an upgrade at all. I suspect if high precipitation linear modes develop earlier, the tornado threat will be squashed, though certainly enough 0-3km helicity will be there for imbedded tornadoes to occur. The threat increases substantially if convection remains disorganized or holds off until late afternoon. We'll have to watch for any breaks in coverage by midday as 3-4 hrs of sunshine could really get things cranking by early evening for central MS up into SW Tennessee. It seems enough instability and low level shear will be there regardless for strong storms and frontline winds even if the mode is messy or linear.

The wind profiles on the Euro are really impressive into the Mid Valley into the lower OV  before the system heads away.There still looks to be a tornado chance for the whole Valley until you might get to the TN/NC mountains

ECMWF simulated reflectivity for Mon by 11pm CST also still looks discrete in nature:

Sat 12z ECMWF didn't back off the Monday evening/night severe threat from earlier runs. If anything, it increased 50-60 kts of low-level shear between 6pm to 2am from the northern half of MS into Kentucky. An area stretching from central MS to Nashville looks particularly concerning between 9pm and midnight. CAPE values are obviously lower/decreased over Middle Tennessee as the evening progresses, but bulk shear continues to increase. Hoping this stays more linear, however any discrete cells probably will be the rotating variety and some likely tornadic through the lower half of the MS Valley and western half of the TN Valley. Given the strong low-level jet, linear storm mode will likely have severe frontline winds as well as the line advances into the middle and eastern Valley. Images courtesy of weather.us.

To add more to handheld anemometers and storm chasers: Juston Drake and Simon Brewer managed to find an elevated sea-facing clearing on US Route 1 on Saddlebrunch Key when Hurricane Irma made landfall. In their attempts to hold the anemometer, their highest sample was 117 mph. But they were only able to hold steady enough to report it as a gust and the Kestrel likely did not accurately sample velocities over 100 mph. Still, just to manage the act of getting a measurement, they were in about as good a location as you could hope for and avoid getting pulverized by debris or inundated by surge. Now imagine trying to do something similar near beach front housing with infrastructure breaking down around you. If you are a chaser imbedded within legitimate Cat 4 winds, you're going to be behind a structure, sheltering in place or unfortunately caught in your vehicle with the windows up for safety. Otherwise, you're risking even greater injury to yourself versus being in the eyewall in the first place.

Jim Edds has the wildest chase video I have ever seen during Super Typhoon Haiyan. It was all he could do to protect himself and still film. He still got freaked out and attempted shelter while building and vegetation debris began to blast around him. It would take intensive location planning and luck to be able to get an anemometer reading, and it's still a huge risk to take. Even if you managed to find a spot to sample, the best handhelds themselves are only rated to good accuracy in a low end major hurricane. Accurate highest sustained winds and wind gusts in high end tropical cyclones are rarely ever going to be recorded from high speed anemometers that are anchored/reinforced, not by a human shields holding devices that distort extreme winds.