Windspeed

Josh was in the eyewalls if Haiyan and Patricia. He's smart even if a huge risk taker. He might get killed one day, but he has always admitted the risk. Still, he usually seeks out the safest concrete structure to record data and has years of experience. Hopefully he will be okay.

Also, we aren't officially in storm mode, so please try and self moderate yourself. if you see your posts disappearing, think twice about your next post.

IF you are religious or not say a prayer for the Panhandle and keep those people in your thoughts ! Not much of a warning to possibly the WORST hurricane to ever hit the U S ...very sad

It will be among the worst landfalls for sure for the US. But we have had more intense hurricanes make landfall than Michael. This storm is going to be devastating to the panhandle, so it doesn't need downplaying, but I don't think it will be the worst ever to hit the US.

Upper level divergence is a hell of a drug.

80%???

You just don't know how to appreciate a meteorological gem.

But I have a side and refuse to see, much less believe with regards to anything other than what supports my close-minded agenda that I support!

Still feeling ok?

Not to overly defend, but NE GOM landfalls tend to be more bark than bite. We all have doubts just from recent history. The fact is that major hurricanes do make landfall there. They are perhaps just more rare due to typical atmospheric environmental conditions. Michael has not yet made landfall and given the presence of strong SW flow, we could still see core degradation before landfall. But this is the crux of it all. Inevitably, whether it is Michael or a future TC, we would have seen a major make landfall in the panhandle again.

Take a shot every time I mention mid level shear and you will end up with alcohol poisoning.

I love AVN. Oh how I have missed thee.

Also, thanks WxWatcher007

Josh is at Panama City Beach:

I’m still feeling okay about my call for a relative sleeper at landfall. 

It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow.

There’s little doubt the euro will likely be too slow on what it had for it’s forward motion of the hurricane.  The question is are the models too fast with the inbound trof/front from the MS valley.  I’m inclined to think they are so I still lean with something west of the NHC track after landfall

It's still early and time for shifts in models, but I have to give props to SnowGoose69. He has been sticking with a further west track vs the previously slower and further east modeling by the ECMWF. But that shift west and increase in forward speed by the 12z ECMWF was an eyeopener.

 

i dont understand why you have such a hard on for me when essentially all i said was that the major hype is likely to be wrong.

you're a good poster and should be able to recognize that my track record on this stuff is better than just about everyone here. 

trust me, i'd love to wrong and watch a cat 4 plow into the redneck riviera. but this is gonna be a sleeper ass cat 1...i think...

 

Yeah, I do not want a Cat 3, much less 4. But keep in mind, just because it's a banter thread doesn't mean you get to trash people without getting any flack yourself. This certainly isn't personal, however, so fair enough. This is hardly a heated disagreement and I'm not stopping you.

omg get over it. it's a banter thread and doing the "climo beats your models" thing has been my schtick for over a decade.
i wasn't even talking about you, but a hit dog hollers.  jeez.
 

discuss it all you want.  i am sure you'll find weenies to go down that hole with ya. hurricane nate last year had plenty of that.

Nate? Nate was a much different setup. This won't be moving at 25 kts at landfall and Michael actually has good modeling and synoptic support to attain major status. You may very well hit the target that Michael is more dud than stud at landfall, as it may be weakening, but to just criticize folks for reacting to actual data on a meteorological forum is essentially trolling. Why don't you post something akin to actual weather reasoning than just being insulting?

ok dude.  yeah, no hyping on this board.  especially not when posting those HWRF plots or jerking it to the sudden pressure drop last night

Because that's not warranted in a meteorological discussion? Haha, yeah. Models show potential major. Don't post that though, it's hype!

i'm not getting jebaited by an october NGOM landfall.  yall crazy with this hype.

Supposed to be in Seaside on Thursday. How many days does it usually take to call off the evacuation?

That's not looking good for you. Hope you can make arrangements for a later date. Though you would rather be on left side of track than right at this point with an advancing trough, as any shift in future track would likely be east vs west. Hopefully Michael isn't bad for Seaside but if surge/wind is bad it may be next week at the earliest due to inundation of low lying areas and power outages due to downed trees.

Josh Morgerman stated he would be heading out today to chase Michael per his Twitter feed.

Talk, it's only talk

Arguments, agreements, advice, answers,

Articulate announcements

It's only talk

 

Talk, it's only talk

Babble, burble, banter, bicker bicker bicker

Brouhaha, boulder dash, ballyhoo

It's only talk

Back talk

 

Talk talk talk, it's only talk

Comments, cliches, commentary, controversy

Chatter, chit-chat, chit-chat, chit-chat,

Conversation, contradiction, criticism

It's only talk

Cheap talk

 

Talk, talk, it's only talk

Debates, discussions

These are words with a D this time

Dialogue, duologue, diatribe,

Dissention, declamation

Double talk, double talk

 

Talk, talk, it's all talk

Too much talk

Small talk

Talk that trash

Expressions, editorials, expugnations, exclamations, enfadulations

It's all talk

Elephant talk, elephant talk, elephant talk

An issue for any vertical city is wind funneling. You may have 70 kt sustained at the airport, but in downtown with skyscrapers, off the bay, etc., wind will have greater effect and look more intense.

Yes I will agree this is a significant event for NC, but with that being said If you live near a river or the coast line this is to be expected a few times in your lifetime. There is going to be massive flooding. I dont know am just not impressed yet. That opinion could change over the next few days  but so far am like meh...

You don't even have to live near or adjacent to a river. This much rain will flood any drainage tributary. Yes, it is expected if you live near the coast. But we're starting to get into unprecedented territory even for NC. We need Florence to move out ASAP.

No matter what happens the sun will still rise torrommow. Not like this is a extinction type event omg

Did you fail to notice that this is a weather and meteorological forum? You keep going on about extinction events. Since those don't occur due to tropical cyclones, I don't think anyone here is impressed with the hyperbole. We're here to discuss the effects be it marginal or severe and your self-righteous belittling diatribe has worn thin. I bet you would be tooting a different horn if you lived in any of these impact areas.

When all this is over and locations surveyed, we will see plenty of damage due to surge across the barrier islands, up inlets and estuaries; and unfortunately, several hundered thousand people will continue to be severely impacted by record breaking rainfall totals for weeks to come as the watershed continues crest and drain. Intense bands are still pushing well into and across NC. The river flooding may even surpass Matthew and Floyd when all is said and done.

Intense rain band creeping closer to Wilmington..

The 0914 00z ECMWF continues to model grim totals for the event.