Windspeed

For posterity, this was the last VDM on second pass a few hours ago. There will be no more flights into Willa. Of note was the 26 NM eye and the absence of an inner eyeband. Also the new eye was open to the SW at the time, typical of southwesterly encroachment of strong mid level flow.

000
URPN12 KNHC 231641
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP242018
A. 23/16:14:00Z
B. 21.53 deg N 106.80 deg W
C. 700 mb 2802 m
D. 966 mb
E. 115 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C26
H. 89 kt
I. 138 deg 16 nm 16:09:00Z
J. 231 deg 109 kt
K. 139 deg 15 nm 16:09:30Z
L. 97 kt
M. 313 deg 9 nm 16:16:30Z
N. 057 deg 91 kt
O. 313 deg 16 nm 16:18:30Z
P. 13 C / 3064 m
Q. 15 C / 3047 m
R. NA / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF309 0224E WILLA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 109 KT 139 / 15 NM 16:09:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 313 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Despite a larger eyewall (ERC is finished) reported by recon, Willa had struggled over night to suppress lingering convection associated with the decaying inner vortex. Also 10-15kt of analyzed southwesterly shear may have also been encroaching upon Willa's core entraining dry air and prolonging the replacement cycle process. That being said, there does appear to be some clearing out if the eye now on visible and Willa is moving over an area of 28-29°C SSTs. Some reorganization and deep convection of the new eye could allow a more steady state of intensity into landfall versus rapid weakening. Trough interactions are tricky. Regardless if Willa is still a major hurricane or category 2 at landfall, the windfield has grown and risk of surge remains. Areas of that part of the Mexican coastline are rather flat despite the nearby mountainous terrain. Speaking of, flash flooding due to prolonged southerly flow and orographic enhancement is already occurring in the higher elevations to the southeast in Colima.

Still forecast to make landfall on the Mexico mainland as a major hurricane, though obviously it could landfall on Las Islas Marias first.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230234
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an
SSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the
northern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over
the past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt
based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from
TAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and
that moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is
expected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast
through landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24
hours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the
forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-
threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas
Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on
Tuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
Moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread
northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a
swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

The initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to
gradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge
centered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the
northwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly
left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and
lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA
consensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed
of the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast
remains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

ERC is now in an advanced stage.

Great Typo

Haha that's an awesome typo!

Recon is getting close.

Edit: Actually, scratch that. They were en route and even descending to an operational altitude, then suddenly did a 180° and are heading back over the Mexican mainland. Perhaps something is wrong?

Willa may be in a state of weakening upon landfall, but it may still be a major hurricane. It's going to be close. Either way it will be a strong impact nonetheless.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220232
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify this evening.  Satellite
images show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of
cold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern
quadrant.  The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the
latest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.  Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since
genesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4
hurricane in less than 48 hours.

Willa is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion
estimated to be 340/6 kt.  The hurricane is expected to turn
northward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward
motion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches
the system.  The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.  On the
forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on
Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central
Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

The hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal
environmental conditions and since these conditions will persist a
little longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short
term.  However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to
eyewall replacement cycles.  The models then show a gradual increase
in shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and
these factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless,
Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple
life-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is
forecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the
mountainous terrain.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high
end of the model guidance through dissipation.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or
Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding
along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is
in effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to
completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

That's definitely a well-developed major hurricane. Though the explosive deepening was expected, it's still crazy to watch such rapid intensification unfold.

NHC is forecasting a Cat 4 now. It should be weakening prior to landfall though. Perhaps even falling below Cat 2 by the time Willa's core reaches the Mexican coast as some of the intensity modeling suggests. However, faster motion and track perpendicular to coastline could allow Willa to maintain major status into landfall. The states of Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit are all a mountainous/volcanic coastal region and too much land interaction there can significantly disrupt low-level inflow of a slow moving hurricane, especially a more adjacent track to the shoreline. Ultimately, landfall intensity will depend on trough interaction and trajectory of track versus the coastline. The eventual capture by the trough and NE motion may give Willa enough forward motion to the NE to avoid its own upwelling, but at the same time, strong southwesterly upper level flow may inflict increasing shear.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 211443
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

First-light GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that Willa
continues to become better organized, with a tightly coiled band
of convection wrapping around the center.  There has also been
evidence of a small eye in recent microwave and infrared satellite
pictures.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
range from 77 kt to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt for this advisory.

Willa is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. The track guidance
continues to indicate that Willa will move northwestward today,
then turn northward on Monday, and then head north-northeastward
on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the
Gulf of Mexico and an approaching mid-level trough. The dynamical
model guidance remains in good overall agreement on this scenario,
but there are differences in how quickly Willa will accelerate
north-northeastward.  The UKMET and ECMWF are much slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, with the GFS and GFS ensemble
mean the fastest.  The NHC track forecast brings the center of the
Willa onshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 h, and
it lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is a little
faster than the other consensus aids.

The hurricane is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear
and over warm waters of around 28 degrees Celsius during the next
day or two.  These very favorable conditions are expected to allow
steady to rapid strengthening through Monday night, and the NHC
forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance.  By 48
hours, increasing southwesterly shear is forecast to initiate
weakening, but Willa is likely to remain a very strong hurricane
through landfall in southwestern Mexico.  After landfall, rapid
weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland
Mexico should occur.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of
southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a
life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and life-threatening
flash flooding, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now
in effect for a portion of the area.  Residents in the watch areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 16.6N 106.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Willa has developed a pinehole eye. Should be upgraded next advisory. I may end up wrong here, but Willa is likely to outperform model intensity guidance. Low shear, small core and high OHC. It has a good 36-48 hrs remaining before increasing SW flow could impart any shear. Really the only thing stopping this from reaching maximum potential through Monday would be the onset of an ERC that takes too long. But ERCs can also be fast and result in a more stable eyewall versus an original tiny core like Willa's.

Edit: Pinhole, not Pinehole. lol..

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 210232
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Willa has rapidly intensified since genesis occurred last night,
and it is almost a hurricane.  Geostationary satellite and
microwave images indicate that banding features have become well
established in all quadrants and the inner core has continued to
organize.  There is still no evidence of an eye feature,
however.  A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates
supports increasing the initial wind speed to 60 kt.

The latest satellite fixes indicate that Willa is now moving
northwestward at about 5 kt.  The storm is expected to gradually
turn to the right as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge.  In response, a northwestward motion should
continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the north
on Monday.  After that time, a faster north-northeast to northeast
motion is expected when a shortwave trough approaches the system.
The latest model guidance, except for the UKMET, show Willa making
a sharper northward turn and at a faster pace.  The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement
with the latest consensus aids.  This forecast is again faster than
the previous one and shows Willa making landfall over west-central
Mexico in 72 to 96 hours.

The storm has taken advantage of near ideal environmental conditions
of very low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and warm 29 deg C
SSTs.  These conditions are expected to prevail for another couple
of days, and that should allow Willa to continue to strengthen
rapidly.  In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
show about 90 percent chance of RI continuing during the next 24
hours.  Based on this information and the latest model guidance, the
NHC intensity forecast shows Willa becoming a major hurricane in a
day or so.  Some weakening is likely before Willa reaches the coast
due to an increase in shear and a decrease in available moisture,
but Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
coastline.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to
interaction with the rugged terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 15.7N 106.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 16.1N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 16.9N 107.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 17.7N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 18.7N 107.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 20.7N 107.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

TS Willa is establishing a tight inner core with nice symmetrical radial anticyclonic outflow aloft. Expect hurricane intensity by daybreak Sunday and rapid intensification into Monday. Willa will be an intense major hurricane before making the forecasted NE turn.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 201446
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

A GMI microwave pass over the depression at 0916 UTC revealed that a
tight inner core has developed, with a cyan and pink ring noted in
the low-level 37-GHz channel.  Outer convective banding has also
been increasing, and a consensus of the latest subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates supports raising the maximum
winds to 35 kt and designating the cyclone as Tropical Storm Willa.
On an historical note, this is the first time that at least 21 named
storms have formed within the eastern Pacific basin since the 1992
season.

The microwave data suggest that Willa's center is a little farther
south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is
calculated to be westward, or 270/8 kt.  The storm is already
located near the western periphery of a mid-level ridge which
extends across northern and central Mexico, and Willa is expected
to slowly recurve around the ridge axis during the next 4 days.  By
the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough located over
the western U.S. is likely to cause Willa to accelerate toward the
northeast in the direction of mainland Mexico.  All of the track
models agree on this general scenario, but there are some
differences on how wide a turn Willa makes while it recurves.
There are also some speed differences that appear to be related to
how strong Willa will be when the mid-latitude trough becomes the
main steering driver.  The NHC forecast is very close to the
previous forecast during the first 48 hours.  After that time, the
forecast has been nudged eastward since the GFS and ECMWF models are
both near or east of the multi-model consensus aids.

With a low-level ring already observed in microwave imagery, and
Willa located in an environment of low shear and over very warm
ocean water, the cyclone appears poised to go through a period of
rapid intensification (RI).  Several of the various RI indices are
over 50 percent, and thus the NHC forecast favors the high end of
the intensity guidance and explicitly shows rapid strengthening
over the next 48 hours.  Willa is expected to be moving more slowly
by days 3 and 4 (about 3 kt), and upwelling of colder water could
induce some weakening by that time.  An increase in shear is likely
to cause more significant weakening by the end of the forecast
period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the
previous forecast to account for the possibility of rapid
intensification, and it shifts Willa's expected peak intensity about
a day earlier.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 14.8N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 15.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 15.3N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 15.8N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Here is the most recent ECMWF (10/19 12z) that resolves both systems quite well. Note how fast the small vortex of Vicente gets driven NNW up the coastline ahead of the larger and stronger vortex of Hurricane Willa:

We may have an interesting fujiwhara effect between two TCs in the EPAC developing near the Mexican coast in the coming days. The very small circulation of Tropical Storm Vicente spun up rather quickly this morning S of Guatemala and E of a strong northerly wind flow being funneled into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Invest 99e is still slowly organizing further to the W and SW of the Mexican coast and will probably become TC Willa. If TS Vicente survives the Tehauntepec wind gap flow over the next 48 hours, modeling by both ECMWF and the GFS simulate possible interaction and play off both systems as they begin to pull N to NE in 5-7 days due to interaction with a mid-to-upper trough. In the meantime, if Vicente survives, it may continue W and NW to either get absorbed by an eventually stronger TC Willa that develops out of invest 99e, or be forced up into the Mexican coast to eventually phase with the resulting larger low pressure over the Gulf of California. Below is the 5 PM EDT discussion for Vicente and the 2 PM outlook for invest 99e. It will be interesting to see the wacky solutions by each of the OP model outputs versus eventual outcome as TCs in close proximity can have radically varied simulations in successive runs. Despite uncertainties on eventual intensities of either TC or their eventual points of landfall, there is increasing concern of severe life-threatening inland flooding over these mountainous coastal regions due to a steady feed of moist southerly flow and proximity to land.

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Although tiny, the cyclone continues to display well-defined
convective banding.  The system's quick formation and small size
make it difficult to have high confidence in its current intensity,
and the various subjective and objective estimates range from
T1.8/28 kt from the ADT to T3.0/45 kt from SAB.  As a compromise,
the intensity is set at 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB estimate
and the most recent SATCON number, and the depression is upgraded to
Tropical Storm Vicente.

As noted this morning, warm waters and low shear should induce
further strengthening during the next 48 hours.  On one hand, this
intensification could be more than what is being indicated by the
models, since small systems can have a tendency to gain strength
quickly.  On the other hand, Vicente will be interacting with a Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event during the next 48 hours, and the
storm could end up ingesting some drier, more stable air into its
circulation.  The NHC intensity forecast favors the former scenario
and is a little above the guidance envelope for the first 2-3 days.
After day 3, an increase in shear, interaction with another possible
tropical cyclone to the west, and possible interaction with land
could all conspire to arrest the intensification trend, and
weakening is expected by the end of the forecast period.  It is also
possible that Vicente could dissipate before the end of the 5-day
period.  This scenario is reminiscent of, and has similarities to,
the interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Hurricane John back in
early August.

Vicente is moving very slowly northwestward, or 305/2 kt.  The
track models are indicating that the ongoing gap winds over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec may have a greater influence of Vicente than
previously thought, forcing the storm to turn west-southwestward in
the next 24-48 hours.  After 48 hours, Vicente should gradually
enter the flow between mid-level ridging over Mexico and low
pressure west of Mexico, causing it to turn back to the west and
northwest on days 3 through 5.  The new NHC track forecast is not
too different from the morning forecast during that period, and it's
closest to the paths shown by the GFS, HCCA, and FSSE guidance,
which would bring the center close to the coast of Mexico later in
the forecast period. There are considerable speed differences,
however, and the NHC forecast splits the difference between the fast
ECMWF solution and the slow GFS scenario.

Even though Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast
tonight and on Saturday, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 13.3N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 13.6N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 13.3N  94.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 12.9N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 12.7N  96.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 13.7N  99.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico,
are gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental conditions
are expected to become increasingly favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tomorrow while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph, well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

If low-level cloud cover moves out in time we could get a hard frost and freeze Sunday morning for the Eastern Valley. If nothing else, this weekend should finally kickstart Fall foliage into gear.

Nice charted pressure vs distance relationship/comparison by Josh Morgerman [mention=19]hurricanejosh[/mention] between two of his Kestrel instruments, seperated by 3.7 miles. One left at his original chase location recorded 939.7 mb. It remained inside the eyewall. A second he had inside the hotel at his final chase position that measure 923.2 mb just inside the western periphery of the eye. A difference of 16.5 mb in 3.7 miles or 4.46 mb per mile. That is probably not exact as the pressure drop probably increased from point B to A. At any rate, that aligns pretty well to the last 919 mb center fix by recon at landfall, though central pressure may have actually dropped a mb or two lower as landfall was underway. Regardless, that is an impressively tight pressure gradient. Post analysis should definitely be interesting.

Dusting off the cobwebs in this thread. Tara is in the process dissipating in 24 hr near the SW Mexican coast; however, there is a new area associated with the CAG and 94L that may interact with a northerly jet over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A number of GEFS and EPS suites have suggested cyclogenesis occurring south of Guatemala and is climatologically favored in the current setup. Why it's worth watching is that some of the guidance shows signficant intensification in 3-5 days and also the possibility of a mid-to-upper weakness or trough being modeled late in 7-10 day range that could pull the TC into the S. Baja or Sinaloa region Mexico.

A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua, southwestern Honduras, and eastern El Salvador will move westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean later this evening. The combination of the wave and a strong northerly wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to develop a low pressure system a couple of hundred miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or early Friday while the system moves west-northwestward near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Signature win for you guys.  Maybe y’all are finally putting it back together.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 132036
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number  70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
or just north of Spain by late Sunday.

Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
guidance.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
on this system.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 40.5N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  14/0600Z 43.0N   4.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
 24H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

I'm seeing improvement. Yes, Tennessee won. But there appears to be a change or evolution occurring right before our eyes. The Vols had no business beating Auburn at their stadium. I didn't expect the win today, nor do I expect them to best Alabama. But they are focusing on their assignments and plays much better. Hell, it's a night and day comparison.

Noon hour and the temp is holding at 47 degrees. Summer to winter in a few days.   Second observation. If your offense is struggling, play Tennessee and it will work much better.

I'm just happy we're still in the game ...for now.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 131433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

Despite Leslie moving over 20C ocean and being embedded within
strong shear, satellite data indicate that Leslie has maintained
its deep warm core and is running ahead of a cold front. Although
convection has weakened considerably, Dvorak estimates indicate
that the winds are still 65 kt.  All indications are that Leslie
will acquire extratropical characteristics in the next several
hours, and by the time it reaches the Iberian peninsula later today,
the system will be a powerful post-tropical cyclone. After landfall,
rapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate
into a broad low pressure area over Spain in a day or so.

Leslie is racing toward the northeast or 055 degrees at about 29 kt
while embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies.  A continued
northeastward motion with gradual decrease in forward speed is
anticipated in the next 12 to 24 hours. This is consistent with
most of the track guidance, which unanimously brings the core of the
post-tropical cyclone over the Iberian peninsula tonight.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 38.0N  12.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 40.0N   8.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  14/1200Z 41.5N   4.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Leslie is coming in fast and aquiring extratropical characteristics now. Looks like it will complete transition to a post-tropical storm just before landfall. That low-level jet streak on the southern side and sting jet may still force surface winds that pack quite a wallop however.

I've spammed the tropical ans SE subforums, might as well deposit this here: