Windspeed

The first wave the OP GFS had been persistently developing the past few days was lost on the most recent 00z run. No surprise, around 100-120 hrs, it gets mauled by 30-50 kt westerlies. The 2nd wave mentioned in the previous post hits the same wall around 200 hrs out. Something probably will hit a favorable pocket eventually, and perhaps the deep mind is seeing that, but the upper levels will have to chill out. Not sure how the AI models are handling those same modeled westerlies simulated on the GFS and ECMWF operationals at advanced hours. That being said, recent EURO runs have been flirting with the build of dominant 500 MB heights over the ECONUS and WATL around Labor Day. We'll see if one of the later AEWs can find its way under that ridge and a more favorable ULAC pocket amidst the upper level chaos.

Climatology always finds a way to break free even from the most hostile conditions. I'm sure we'll see at least one long tracking hurricane in the next 1 1/2 months. We had Joaquin in 2015 and that one was originally forecast to pull another hurricane Sandy into the east coast but that eventually didn't pan out. Joaquin was able to find the perfect spot to turn into a high end category 4 and hang around for a while. 

A long-tracking hurricane? Maybe. Perhaps a few long-tracking TCs regardless. One that remains powerful enough to stack ACE? There in lies the problem, or lack of a problem, depending on perspective. Yes, Joaquin occurred during an El Niño season. But you should read up on that TC's meteorological history. Joaquin did not form in the MDR, nor was it even associated with an AEW. That particular TC formed out of a retrograding mid-to-upper cutoff interacting with a remnant surface trough. Despite its stall and eventual high-end intensity, such a system doesn't happen with frequency even during active seasons. My previous post is merely stating, sure, climatology might get us a hurricane, or even a few of them this season. I just doubt we'll see any CV majors cross the MDR and rack up significant ACE with walls of shear. Something might develop, may even flirt with hurricane status, or become a hurricane, but it will probably struggle to reach or maintain major status very long, if at all, to pump up those numbers. Mind you, these comments should also not be confused with significant landfalls or impacts. That could still occur. Yada, yada, yada, it only takes one. At any rate, we're quickly approaching the heart of the season. We shall see.

A PDS is currently out for the ongoing flooding emergency:

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NAALEHU IN KAU DISTRICT

FFWHFO

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
The island of Hawaii in Hawaii County

* Until 100 AM HST.

* At 953 PM HST, local law enforcement reported 2 homes swept away due to intense rainfall over Naalehu. Rain was falling at a rate of 3 to 5 inches per hour. Flash flooding is ongoing with additional heavy rain bands expected over the next several hours

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Naalehu in Kau District. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Wood Valley, Pahala, Punaluu Beach, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, Kawa Flats, Volcano, Naalehu, Glenwood, Hawaiian Ocean View, Mountain View and Waiohinu.

Radar coverage for the eastern half of the island is down at present. Unfortunately, a strong backside circulation feeder band with enhanced southerly flow is aligned and curving upslope right over the Big Island. Radar would most likely show an ongoing firehouse if it were still operational. You will notice the lightning showing where the deepest cells are likely training under the deepest convection.

I am not confident we will see substantial ACE accrued in the Atlantic Basin this year. We may get a TC that finds its way into the right synoptic pattern at the right time to become a hurricane, regardless of land threat, but I do not forsee any long tracking systems remaining powerful for a duration that would stack ACE points. There will just be too much airmass expanding away from the Pacific from the mid-to-upper levels shearing off whatever might develop in the Atlantic MDR.

Crazy total rain accumulations have occurred over the eastward facing volcanic slopes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa massifs. Not unexpected, but hopefully more populated residential areas have avoided high water this morning.

Hrmm...

I actually like the call for minimal hurricane on the closest approach. Though the discussion mentioned not much change in organization or intensity in the past six hours, Lala's core structure is starting to show some interesting signs it may be about to begin a period of intensification. Over the past several hours, organizing banding is wrapping near the CoC. Additionally, some deeper convection is now firing within that interior band, and radar also suggests a shallow ring is evolving. SSTs are running above 27-27.5°C at that location, which is above normal aided by the strengthening El Niño. I'd favor steady intensification now despite any lingering dry airmass and status quo at this point.

That is just not a great look for the first potential MDR system. A wall of strong mid-to-upper shear with a sharp trough or cutoff as it moves NE of the Lesser Antilles has stayed persistent between 72 and 144 hrs over the past day or two of operational runs. May have to pay attention to the MDR setup if perhaps a second system can organize behind the first, where it could slip into better upper support or pocket of favorablility. But my enthusiasm is very much lacking so far for the first.

RORY Yoronjima pressure dropped to at least 938 mb as the eye passed.  Since the reports are hourly, the pressure likely got lower.

However, the winds are not what one would expect for such a small inner ocre and low pressure.
 
RORY 070600Z AUTO 11031G42KT 2300 RA BR SCT008 OVC010 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959
RORY 070500Z AUTO 11032G45KT 3300 -RA BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC013 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959
RORY 070400Z AUTO 11031G44KT 1500 RA BR FEW004 BKN007 OVC008 //////TCU 28/27 Q0957
RORY 070300Z AUTO 10040G68KT 0600 RA FG OVC004 //////CB 28/28 Q0951
RORY 070200Z AUTO 06022G33KT 1200 -RA BR FEW003 BKN005 BKN007 //////TCU 29/28 Q0938
RORY 070100Z AUTO 33055G71KT 0200 RA FG SCT004 BKN007 OVC012 //////TCU 28/28 Q0951
RORY 070000Z AUTO 33038G51KT 1300 RA BR SCT006 BKN009 OVC011 //////TCU 28/27 Q0961

The OBS make logical sense. Though Dolphin's eyewall has clearly intensified, the expansive sink and spread out low pressure surface trough due to many days of large eyewalls and concentric banding now surround the central vorticity maximum and core (i.e. background pressures are very low around the typhoon's envelope). Dolphin won't increase the overall maxium wind too significantly. However, it will allow strong winds to mix down better in the eye. Still an impressive system regardless if it is not capable of reaching high end typhoon status again.

Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.

Spiral galaxy mode engaged.

Dolphin is definitely winning in beauty points. Absolutely gorgeous expansive typhoon.

Dolphin appears to be entering a new phase of intensification. Dual CBs are currently rotating around the core. Tops are getting colder with a notable HT. The core looks overall healthier than the past few days. Again, the gradient may still be too spread out to actually make another run at Super Typhoon status, but clearly, some intensification is underway as ADT numbers are back on the increase.

It's pretty fascinating thermal dynamics at play with Dolphin. The system remains in relatively low shear. It has already gone through numerous EWRCs. The typhoon has morphed from a deep, heavily banded system to one of multiple concentric rings that tend to hinder the core. Yet, shear should remain light. It will be moving across another degree Celsius or two of higher heat content. It will be interesting to see if Dolphin can reestablish enough intense core convection to tighten its gradient. It most likely will not reattain super typhoon status again. But it may have another period of strengthening. We shall see...

Dolphin is evolving into a Caterpillar 797 tire..

I only got about .4 yesterday. 15 miles away it was 10x that.  After 15 inches in 30 days, I'm kind of glad to have missed it. My yard is out of control and it hasn't been dry a single 24 hour period in seemingly over a week.

Yes, the grass never seems to dry off regardless of whether it rains that day. Mowing is a pain in the ass of late.

Kudos to the UKMET. Especially with the eventual westward component that it started suggesting before anything else. A few days ago, the ensembles latched onto taking the feature into the WATL. I was confident of that as well. But confidence means little in the early stages of a disorganized system caught between several dominant features and weak steering currents that are not fully resolved.

Now, we have to see how convection evolves with the overall broader surface low. If a smaller vorticity becomes dominant, location if where that occurs will be critical to how long this system remains over water versus the gradual westward turn. Regardless, it looks like copius rainfall is on the menu for the Panhandle/So. Alabama, MS, and LA.

The lightning in these overnight cells gets intense, and if you happen to find yourself under one, look out. I had a tree struck around 2AM here. Virtually no wind. Just periods of frequent CGs.

If nothing else, at least it is a feature to track and watch. There is nothing much to add beyond the most recent posts. Spot on. It's a mid-level system / pulsing MCS. Let's see if it will ramp up again this evening. We need persistent deep convection to drive inflow and get vorticity to resolve in the low levels. That happening out over the GOM sooner than later determines if we get a TC or just beneficial rains to the upper peninsula. Again, it's something interesting to watch, and we may not get many of these this season.

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

I’m currently thinking the under on the NS and H forecast.

Ditto.

Oh no!! He will be greatly missed! Thank you GaWx for letting everyone know.

Rest in peace, Roger. May your contests be forever eternal in the great beyond.

If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one while recalling Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.

I think KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.