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Windspeed

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    Winter 25/26 General Obs

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    We are either going to tie or break our record low for KTRI by daybreak. Skies are clear, and I am at 0°F at my location. Showing 1°F at KTRI. The official record low for KTRI on February 2nd is exactly 0°F. With a clear sky and no wind, surely we can drop another degree or two at the airport.

    Edit: And we officially recorded a new record low for February 2nd. Currently -1°F at KTRI.

    Edit 2: Posted in the storm OBS thread, but will paste here for posterity. KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.

    Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    This isn't going to be a popular opinion, but my many years of snow events at TDOT has made me very skeptical of brine. During the event last January we brined half of I-75 in Hamilton County and left the other half untreated. It made zero difference during the event.
    It's just too cold for brine to be effective at these temperatures, no? They heavily treated the main road nearby, and it's all white other what they've managed to scrap or plow.

    1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    The RGEM crushed our souls last week once it got into range. Everything quickly followed suit, so I'm going stubbornly stick with it through the evening. The 12z run doesn't have my location with an inch of accumulation at 10:1 until around 0z / 7PM. That seems reasonable, given the melting occurring with the sun. I figure we won't see heavy returns until sunset. As the temperature drops that ratio should also increase with the cold column in place.

    • Like 1

    1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Text for the map above..


    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Morristown TN
    250 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

    TNZ016>018-040>047-072-074-087-VAZ002-005-006-008-291815-
    /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0002.260130T1800Z-260201T0600Z/
    Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
    Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest
    Carter-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
    Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
    Including the cities of South Holston Dam, Elkmont, Mooresburg,
    Hansonville, Bybee, Abingdon, Rosedale, Benhams, Pardee, Citico,
    Greeneville, Norton, Big Stone Gap, Hartford, Doeville, Shady
    Valley, Mountain City, Dye, Hampton, Coker Creek, Limestone Cove,
    Wise, Hiltons, Kingsport, Gatlinburg, Erwin, Appalachia, Honaker,
    Unicoi, Newport, Neva, Bristol TN, Laurel Bloomery, Bristol VA,
    Coeburn, Castlewood, Cedar Creek, Elizabethton, Cades Cove,
    Trade, Johnson City, and Lebanon
    250 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
    SATURDAY NIGHT...

    * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
    7 inches possible. Winds in the mountains could gust as high as 35
    mph.

    * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

    * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

    * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
    could impact the Friday evening commute.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

    &&

    $$

    1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I feel completely opposite versus last weekend's lead time into the event for a snow storm. Obviously, that transitioned into worry for the ice storm. But with respect to all snow, perhaps even significant totals, my confidence is growing. Got to love recent trends with a stronger and slower mid-to-upper low versus the coastal surface low. If the moisture feed is there, that ULL will eat. Very cold column and high ratios. I guess if I get my heart broken, so be it. I am all in on this system.

    • Like 3

    1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.
    You hate to see it, Carver. We still hold some cards. But it's getting dangerously close to the event. I will say we've been very lucky the past three to four decades regarding heavy ice accumulations. I think it was even '77 or '78 the last time KTRI saw icing on a scale that could play out in this event. Hopefully, it does not.
    • Like 2
    • Sad 1

    1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Just want to thank everyone for their input and analysis the past few days. I am worried about the duration of the freezing rain event for KTRI. I am now just hoping all hope for significant downsloping to get surface temps above freezing. I have thrown in the towel for snow. Yes, we may still see 3 to 4 inches here. But it will not be fun if the ice accumulation occurs. The grid here can't handle anything over .5, God forbid .75, without greatly increasing the scale of damage to infrastructure. I am hopeful that a change over to heavy rain could result in significant melting before strong NW surface flow hits.

    • Like 2
    • 100% 1

    1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    You know the thing that is concerning for me is that on the 6z GFS run...we barely get above freezing at TRI from Saturday to the end of the run.  The 0z Euro (can't use the 6z as it only goes out to 144) doesn't bring us above freezing until Feb 2, and has a very severe cold snap on the 30th.  Maybe the real story(other than snow) is the duration and severity of the cold which could accompany this.  If we get heavy snow or ice, that could be significant problem in combination w/ cold which follows.  The GFS and GEM-para also both have another pretty severe cold snap around the 30th.  The 0z EPS has a 10day mean from Jan 24th to Feb 3 which is 10-15 degrees BN...incredible or an ensemble to have that.

    I want snow like everyone else here. But I am in total agreement with you on this. If the berserk modeling runs this morning verify, the severe cold that follows is going to be a huge concern. Major power outages with a slow recovery to repair lines. Hopefully, the models have hit their peak and are way overloaded. But unfortunately, anything around a foot of snow, followed by severe bitter cold will cripple infrastructure for the region. Often, we have a warmup after a major snow event. The timing of the upcoming event is not so great in this regard.
    • Like 4

    Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    At 657 ft that’s pretty low. What is the height threshold for these 
    They transmit data several times a second until they splash down to get a real-time measurement of the column they're falling through. In this particular case, the peak of the gust occurred at 657 ft, but the gust most likely continued through decent into splash-down being that low. I haven't read the entire data transfer, however. That being said, there is no bearing on height. It could have occurred even closer to splash down, given the high frequency of the data transfer. 657 ft is pretty close to the surface, though. Within 20 seconds to splash down at 10m/s..
    • Like 1

    Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Incredible and I mean incredible tree/vegetation damage from Melissa across a large area in this video. There's only a few TCs in recent memory that have produced damage on this scale.
    Unfortunately, that's what you would expect to see from a higher-end Category 5. The footage is still insane, however. Thanks for sharing.

    RE: Deaths, I would be shocked if the toll remains below 100. There is just too far wide an area of immense devestation, especially through the interior of the island, and it takes time to search with cadaver dogs through all scattered piles of debris.

    Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Any major flooding reports from this?


    Flooding did occur. I just do not have access to anything official yet. Based on images, there was clearly a strong storm surge in the right-front quadrant. Also, the eastern areas of the island did not go unscathed as there was flash flooding off the ridges. But so far, I have not read any official numbers yet on either. Hopefully, as Melissa gained forward speed while crossing the island, mudflows due to flooding were mitigated somewhat. If anyone has anything official, please share.

    Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    For sure the Montego Bay damage consistent with cat3 winds
    Yeah, unfortunately, it seems everything operationally is verifying on the ground. I am hopeful many lives were saved by residents heeding the advanced warnings. They had several days to plan. It will still be a miracle if the death count doesn't rise, however, despite the more densely populated areas in eastern Jamaica avoiding the eyewall. As you can see in the imagery, there are an overwhelming number of structures deroofed, walls down, or completely destroyed.
    • Like 2
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