Windspeed

12z ECMWF follows 0z and forms Gordon in eastern GOM and then crawls across the NW GOM coastal plain. Boy track position is going to be super critical if that resolves. Though not substantially deep, upper layer SSTs are running 29-31°C right on the coast. 200 miles north or south could be the difference between a coastal flooder or a Cat 3.

The GFS continues to be annoyingly overblown on intensity modeling. Jebi at 918 mb just off the coast while imbedded in strong SW mid level flow? No...

Updated track and intensity guidance for Jebi.

12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps. The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target.Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4.You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses.

Be careful with use of that word imminent in describing an increased probability of a significant earthquake. Though there has been research that has tried to link small and prolonged seismic signals to tidal stresses, there has yet to be any substantial evidence correlating a single large seismic event based on the tidal influences and lower atmospheric surface pressures of a tropical cyclone. Simply put, there is yet no known mechanism to forecast failure of a fault based on a single weather event such as a tropical cyclone. The stresses of rock deformation, elastic and isostatic rebound are many factors exponentially greater on scale than to that of any atmospheric pressure influence by a single weather event. We also have too many examples of strong typhoons hitting Japan with little or negligible large seismic event observed. There is simply no evidence to support such a precursor, much less a prediction. However, Japan is always under threat of a strong seismic event simply due to the many active thrust faults there besides. So a threat is always high compared to other populated geographic locations regardless of what is occurring in the atmosphere. 

 

The same strong mid-level trough responsible for steering Jebi towards Honshu may also phase it. This will be a timing issue but I agree that Jebi has a good chance of being a significant strike. There may be mid-level shear impeding upon Jebi as it approaches landfall, but SSTs are still running 27-28°C off the coast there, so though I do expect quite a bit of weakening, it could still be packing 100+ kts. Could be a damaging event. Those folks are seasoned to handle it, however, though I am certainly not downplaying the threat.

JTWC now has Jebi classified a Super Typhoon at 140 kts.

The EPAC continues to ball out. Norman has rapidly intensified and is now a beautiful category 4 major hurricane:

I actually think Tennessee will upset West Virginia and start out 3-0 before heading into its difficult conference schedule. Tennessee will need that upset win as I can't realistically see them winning more than 7 games this year. Perhaps 8 if they get lucky. The conference is just too strong and Pruitt and Helton do not yet have the depth and player personnel they need to sufficiently run their style of defense and offense. But I do think there is enough talent to coach up and win some games in close matchups. Though Tennessee has not won a game under this staff yet, I have already bought in that they are vastly superior to any staff we have had since the Fulmer era on paper. So I am cautiously optimistic here.

GFS continues to be very bullish with a Cape Verde hurricane turning up into the central Atlantic and becoming a major hurricane. ECMWF has also been consistent with the same TC moving into the central Atlantic, but much weaker and traversing a less favorable upper level environment. I think we probably do end up getting our first long-tracking TC out of the MDR, but the GFS is being way too favorable and overdoing intensity. Whether a hurricane or struggling tropical storm, at least we'll have something to track.

 

 

The Atlantic has been quiet and the MDR virtually dead so far, however, the MJO is forecast to head into phases 8-1 and potentially enhancing convection over the GOM, Caribbean and portions of the Atlantic in a few weeks. Granted, you still need cooperative Azores ridging and easterlies without a suppressed regime into the ITCZ to get an increase in activity out of the MDR. But favorable MJO phases could lead to a little fireworks from mid September into early October. Models will probably flip-flop for another week but it's at least something to keep an eye on as there is little else.

 

The ECMWF weeklies hint at a cooler pattern in the SE CONUS with some fronts that manage to swing through, becoming stationary boundaries over Florida, the Bahamas and W. Caribbean. Definitely could lead to some development closer to home out of any persistent surface troughs with a favorable phase in place. The models are also starting to suggest some stronger easterly waves in the coming week, even closing one off into a TC before moving into the central Atl., though showing little support beyond initial development. As things stand, I am not yet confident that the atmosphere over the MDR will be all that favorable by September 10th. But even if it is not, remember, as the previous poster mentioned Andrew, that was also a Cape Verde system that managed to survive a similarly unfavorable MDR and hostile upper level environment. Andrew held together and snuck under a favorable extended W. Atantic ridge, being in the right place at the right time; the rest is history.

 

So much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin. This statement in particular:

 

"This event is absolutely baffling, and my fellow meteorologists and I are struggling to theorize what just happened."

 

There is absolutely no way any senior met would make such a statement. People will make up lies about anything these days. 🤪

PHMO on Moloka'i base long is really telling the story here for The Big Island.

Don't like throwing around the word "catastrophic" for description because it gets over used in an exaggerative manner, however, if the 1-3"/hr rain rates don't back down upslope of Hilo soon, that's exactly what we're going to be using to describe the flooding event there.

The eyewall looks like it is starting to take on a tilted vortex appearance from SSW (LLC) to NNE (MLC) in the directional flow of impeding shear. The CDO also appears to be elongating in that direction as well. This just might be the beginning of faster paced weakening.

 

 

Distant base refectivity shows a very well-defined eye.

954 mb and just outside eyewall. Eye may be filled with mid-level cloud debris but it is definitely still intense.

Latest radar..

The professor can explain it better than I can lol

The proof is in the pudding. I am still confident this does not make landfall or even closest approach as a hurricane regardless of current intensity. As long as the shear axis remains adjacent to the core, Lane will weaken slowly. But as soon as 40-60 kts of mid-level bulk shear impedes, it will decapitate Lane as rapidly as any storm we have ever observed. This still does not downplay the worst hazard by any means however, as Cat 4 or 5 intensity was always going to have no bearing on the end result, which is clearly high rainfall rates on the volcanic terrain and a severe downslope flooding threat.

Nice sharp moat coming better into view now.

Visual for those wondering. 

 

That is long base range, so not the greatest detail, but the outter banding north of the eyewall doesn't look too organized yet to be choking off the eyewall even if the northern semicircle of the eyewall already has a moat feature.

The axis of stronger wind shear is clearly just west of Lane's core but not advancing or yet encroaching upon the core itself, which is still within a very favorable environment. Barring ongoing consolidation of an outter concentric band forcing an ERC, Lane should hold at least Cat 4 intensity through the next 12 hrs. The CDO is very impressive at the moment.

 

 

At least we still have AVN for the Pacific.

How is Lane doing this with 27C waters? Is there like a layer of 29-30C water 50 meters below the surface? Upper-air enhancements? Unreal stuff. For perspective. Most of the SW Atlantic has warmer waters than this region of the PAC.

Lane's core is moving just fast enough over SSTs with a mean of 28°C. Even though the 26°C isotherm isn't substantially deep, Lane is moving fast enough that upwelling is not really an issue. 28°C SSTs can support a Cat 5 in the right favorable atmospheric conditions. With excellent outflow and slightly cooler upper tropospheric region for lower level instability and convergence, consider those conditions favorable.

 

Latest HWRF has Lane's core holding together fairly well and reaching latitude of Maui somewhat intact.

With so much shear expected to impact Lane, I'm not sure what landfall/closest approach intensity will be. On one hand, there is a very strong core that could be a bit resistant to rapid weakening. On the other hand...shear tends to wind those battles, especially if it's attacking in different sectors (low level, etc.).

If you'lll notice the GFS and RGEM 500mb dam is very persuasive that Lane gets decapitated somewhere in the late 48-72 hr range. Easterly trades and Leeward flow off the islands halts Lane's LLC with strong 30-40kts mid-to-upper southwesterly flow persisting. A strong moisture feed against the trades will still do a nasty deed over the islands depending on closest approach however. This trend is why I am gaining confidence Lane will not be a hurricane impact at landfall with respect to sustained winds for the lower elevations. But it certainly poses a severe flooding threat depending on how proximity of track, eastern semicircle of circulation, moisture feed and windward orographic enhancement evolves.

 

 

As previously suggested, I also think the worst issues with Lane will indeed be flooding. Even though the angle of approach supports the best track for a possible hurricane landfall based on the profile of sea surface temperatures and climatology, Lane's approach in particular will bring the core into increasing southwesterly mid-to-upper 500-300mb shear. The last actual hurricane landfall, being Iniki, the 500mb heights and southerly steering flow were positioned directly east of Iniki so though upper-level enhancement increased, shear was limited, which resulted in not only a hurricane strike but a major one. In the case of Lane, heights will actually be rebuilding to the NE as the mid-level trough digs and begins the process of cutting off. This should introduce three vectors of wind flow between surface, steering and upper-level flow. Lane will even get blocked and turn back NW-WNW slowly moving along or just south of the chain. Timing of this slow down will be critical to how close Lane can get to landfall before significant weakening, but I'm not confident Lane can remain a hurricane up to landfall, if the core landfalls at all. Yes, there is still a high threat of damaging winds, but this won't be another Iniki.

Regardless if Lane is a weakening Cat 1 or 2 hurricane or TS upon land interactions of the weakening core, the biggest threat is going to be the insane amounts of easterly orographically-enhanced rainfall on the islands' volcanoes. The surface circulation will slow down and turn back to the WNW and not at a rapid pace and this will cause a lot of problems for runoff and flooding of areas with lowest topography.