Windspeed

Some of the flooding vids out of Puerto Rico are downright terrifying.

Do you have any links?

Wow, that's horrible.  How long will it be before we get a complete MW pass over the island?  Some of the deeper reds seem to be near San Juan, even though the pass didn't reach the city.

 

Keep in mind, microwave data estimates may not line up exactly with geography. This isn't nearly as accurate as radar estimates either, it's just the best we have right now with respect to remote sensing.

 

The next pass may miss the entire island or get all of it. There are several polar orbiting satellites that scan. I haven't studied their time syncs, I generally just check at random times. It's difficult to get the rain rate product scan where you want it.

 

Finally got a decent MW pass over PR for rain rates and, unsurprisingly, they're extreme. The pass missed the eastern island but it's close enough to get an idea what is occuring. Keep in mind, microwave data estimates may not line up exactly with geography. This isn't nearly as accurate as radar estimates either, it's just the best we have right now with respect to remote sensing.

Hopefully I can get an answer to this question. Can someone point me to he website where you can actually follow the track of the hurricane as compared to the official track? Someone posted it for Irma but like an idiot, I didn't save it. Thanks in advance. 

Probably University of Wisconsin's CIMSS. Pick your cyclone and then select which satellite overlay you prefer.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

But also seeing the inner eye opening after looking at the loop here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

Recent image -

 

The large eye looks to be clearing out. But my focus there was more on the convective complex over PR. We no longer have visible to see the individual training cells which was our next best thing besides radar. The complex is troubling.

The convective complex interaction with that strong feeder earlier has gone bonkers the past few hours with -80° tops.

This is the USGS 24 hr totals map of the flood event from Oct. 6-7, 1985 that set many of those flood stage records.

I think it makes sense to toss that one reading on the Rio Grande de Manati until proven otherwise. It doesn't match with the readings before and after at that gauge, upstream and downstream on that river, or to any of the rivers in the area.

Yes, the general idea here is to note that they reading above record. They may not be reporting correctly but anything above record is alarming. Those levels have been in data sets for many years as you would expect for a tropical island in the USGS database. The 1985 event set most of those records. 31.67 inches of rain peaked in the Toro Negro State Forest and is the record within a 24 hour period. Neither Hurricane Georges or Hugo came close. Maria may end up exceding it if the southerly onshore pivot persist all evening. Not having radar estimates or comms established sucks. It may be several days before we really grasp the brunt of impact with isolated communities.

 

This event is long from over. Note the intense CCs training directly over mountainous terrain off of the Caribbean. We will not have coms from the south facing slopes and low lying communites for a while. I have a great fear of mudflows being the big killer as this event progresses through the evening. There are some pretty steep and unstable slopes to contend with the already high precipitation that has occurred. Some people have a natural tendency to feel optimistic after landfall. I won't for several days. A tropical wave in the 1980s killed hundereds in the same location. Not trying to overhype or be an alarmnist. It's just a bad mix of geology and water in an event such as this and we are not done until Maria has pulled quite a good distance to the WNW. Hopefully people got away from mudflow prone areas. Unfortunately, that geography makes up a lot of the south facing slopes.

Amazing IR shot though definitely not something you want to see over land.

You can definitely make out the larger eye on visible.

TSJU radar at the airport is now down as well.

Last scans before TJUA went out.

Down to 155 mph- very strong Cat 4

 

Thanks for the radar images, it really puts the storm into perspective with the PR eastern coastline.

Enjoy radar while it lasts. I am going to be extremely shocked if it lasts much longer. Velocity is already 100+ at the station.

New NW eyewall now crossing PR SE coast.

Dying throws of the IEW...

We may lose TJUA radar when the OEW crosses over the site. Someone with more knowledge of the durability of the tower and dome might interject here. Sitting at a higher elevation, it will be exposed to extreme winds. Even if it survives, it will probably be disabled.

Don't expect to see any helicopter footage out of Dominica until tomorrow at the earliest. Turbulance and flight conditions would have remained awful there throughout the day.

 

CDEMA may have done aerial recon this evening but still nothing released:

 

Due to the conditions, the CDEMA head said the agency would have to identify appropriate landing sites for helicopters since fixed-wing aircraft could not be used.

 

CDEMA has activated its Regional Response Mechanism and aerial reconnaissance was taking place at the time of the Press conference.

 

The Regional Security System, including a CDEMA damage assessor, flew over Dominica  to get a better sense of what was happening on the ground and take aerial photos.

 

There was also a planned flight by a partner military institution to take a rapid assessment team and possibly one search and rescue person and a communications kit to the ravaged country.

 

http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/100659/cdema-gears-complex-dominica-mission

What an impressive hurricane. I thought after Irma that would be the best looking hurricane that I had seen on Nexrad. I figured it would be years.. Wrong!!

HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.

 

Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin like in the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria.

 

You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall.

 

The outer band does look to be intensifying. Unfortunately, even if St. Croix doesn't get into the northeast eyewall, that outer band may have long duration winds of hurricane force as it is moving over them. They are still going to get rocked.

 

What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?

It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter.

Maria's eyewall is coming into range of super resolution. This will be one of the most impressive eyewalls you will have seen on radar.

I was looking for this before but couldn't find it, what was the strongest TC to directly make landfall on Puerto Rico?

 

The Great "Okeechobee" hurricane of 1928 made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 5 with 160mph sustained winds. So far it is the only Category 5 to make landfall there in the historical record.

The immense size and spread of the heavy banding/precipitation field NW of the core is troubling. If this structure holds through tomorrow, Puerto Rico is going to be experiencing flash flooding all over the island long before the core even gets there.