Windspeed

That sounding is super contaminated by ongoing convection and not representative of the actual atmosphere.

Yikes...

Good morning. I suspect we're in for a long evening and night. Good luck to everyone as far as hail or wind damage. And don't forget to unplug your sensitive electronics and hardware if you're going to be away from your home this afternoon-evening. Sometimes surge & ups fail and warranties can't replace everything.

Cyclone Marcus has been quite nuisance for Darwin and Kimberley in N. Australia the past few days. The core will be pulling away from the coast on Monday and will put on quite a show this week in the SE Indian Ocean. Forecast reasoning and modeling suggests a rapidly intensifying and prolonged cyclone event and Marcus may reach Category 5. Fortunately it will be doing so a good distance away from land.

Had a possible tornado touchdown just south of Tellico Plains in Coker Creek area. 1 structure damaged alot of trees/power poles snapped. Currently 1048 FLEC customers out of power. No injuries.

**Warning: Loud volume with explicit language**

I saw this video on another site that mentioned near Etowah. Save your ears and adjust volume down prior to viewing.

Surprised none of you in here have mentioned the risk for severe weather on Monday...

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

This was the same storm that also produced a F5 in the southern counties of Tn.In Lawrenceburg it went through the Amish country,don't know how no one died from that community.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_15–16,_1998

The Lawrenceburg footage is very intense. Perhaps the most violent tornado ever recorded in Tennessee on video. Though the 20 mile path traversed sparsely populated communities, still quite miraculous that it resulted in no deaths.

21 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

March, 2-3 is the Anniversary outbreak of 2012
 
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120302

Day of the EF-4 Henryville, Ind. tornado:

..and that same day near Chattanooga, an EF-3 hit Ooltewah and Cleveland, Tenn., and also this EF-2 in Etowah:

That does not look good.  Any updates on those cells and what happened on the ground?

Some organizing supercells moving towards north-central Alabama. Weak rotation but nothing yet tornadic.

Gita is a gorgeous cyclone. The status is currently at Category 4. Though it temporarily reached Category 5 yesterday, it has maintained a fairly steady large eye and taken on some annular characteristics. A reminder that categories in the S. Pacific and Australia are not the same as the N. Pacific and N. Atlantic.

Did it not snow fairly significantly in the eastern Valley following weekend after the March 12-13th event as well? I believe we were around 14" officially at KTRI for the Blizzard of '93 event, though closer to 18" on average at our house. But later that next week I seem to recall an additional 3-6" off a seperate clipper.

Edit: Nope, I'm getting the '96 blizzard mixed up with the '93 blizzard. Also, looking at the intervals of time between major blizzards during my childhood and teenage years is depressing.

Severe Cylcone Gita is churning away in the S. Pacific near Tonga. It is still classified a Cat 4 based on latest advisory, though, based on over-night imagery, it may have weakened temporarily or gone through an ERC. That process appears to have completed as the eye is again clearing out. The core will cross through a favorable environment and higher SSTs the next 24-48 hours. As such, Gita may not yet have reached its maximum intensity. The core will pass very close if not over the island of Ono-i-Lau very close to or at Cat 5 intensity.

6 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

That looks like a typical JTWC "tropical storm" bearing down on Vietnam.

I like this system to undergo a period rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hrs into landfall. I think this makes landfall stronger than 80kts. Perhaps even reaches Category 3. The core is getting established and the upper environment is clearly favorable. 27-28°C SSTs should support sufficient enough instability given the divergence aloft and jetstreak to the north.

115 kts ... massive wind radiii:

6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM AS THE ONCE LARGE EYE FEATURE IS NOW OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST LAYER WHILE EXHIBITING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, A 220441Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL MOSTLY INTACT WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE ERODING AWAY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T7.0 (102 TO 140 KNOTS) AND A 220542Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE OVER TY 25W NOW DISRUPTED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY TY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

Near or at landfall:

FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.6N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 370 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

54 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

people can read the posts and decide themselves about the hype.

 

it's all love, man.  i like your posts.  but i am just staking out a strong position. the storm is increasingly looking like crap, the JTWC forecast is loltastic, and japan can handle it.

They can handle a Cat 2/3, yes, they have sea walls and well built structures. But that's besides the point. Even a Cat 2, don't take it seriously and it hits a densely populated area, see what happens. And just based on current motion, 15-20kt of weakening is probably close to the mark. It wouldn't be good and it will cause destruction. Nobody was hyping this.

Edit: Current intensity is 125 kts and that may even be high. Earlier, when Lan looked a lot better, mind you, I made the 15-20 kt comment based on its appearance versus rapid forward motion. It's down to 125 kts. So give me the benefit of the doubt of 20 kts. You win. It will clearly weaken more than 20 kts. Probably 30 kts by landfall. Congratulations. I apologize for overhyping a 135 kt typhoon based on a worry of rapid motion. A Cat 2/3 landfall was forecast throughout and that is likely what it will be. Never called for anything higher, but you are correct. I insinuated hype with the word "worry" that it wouldn't weaken below Cat 3. It most likely will. Cheers!

everyone knows i am ridiculous.  that's irrelevant, though. i am also usually right.

 

3 hours ago you said this:

 

this will definitely be wrong. by a bunch.  

 

japan is going to be just fine.  they have great building codes...and look at the satellite, dude...its pooping out.

you can totally downplay a 135kt storm that is in the middle of the ocean.  what matters is what it is when it hits something.  and when it hits something it's going to be pretty run of the mill....maybe even garden variety (shout out to my hurricane nate weenies).  i'll be fine with eating a fat plate of crow if it turns out to be a disaster.

 

Also, NOBODY in this thread has been overhyping Lan. Not in the least. Get real.

let's just leave it be for now and we can see how it plays out.  i am still on team "blustery day with lots of twitter videos of waves".

lan is definitely hot garbage and has been for its entire existence.  the WPAC is the land of gods.  show some respect to real legendary typhoons.  let this one go.

 

135kt max and extratropical turning crap into japan is zzzzz

you've got way too much faith in this system. just throw on the loop.  this is going to look terrible in 8-10 hours.

 

1 hour ago, cmasty1978 said:

i don't know, man...it's really going downhill the last few frames

Define "really going downhill"? If convection were falling apart, I'd concede. But this is classic tilting due to mid-level flow. Only, at present, the core is moving rapidly enough to counter it. That northern eyewall must still be quite fierce with such intense convection wrapped around it. Yes, you will have an assymmetrical appearance outside the core with baroclinic influence and increased southwesterly flow, but the core itself around the eyewall remains symmetrical and intact. This is still an intense typhoon. Hopefully it will begin to weaken significantly for the sake of impact on a highly populated region.