Windspeed

Mesoscale Discussion 0208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Mississippi...Northwest Alabama...and
   southern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 141647Z - 141815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storms is expected through the
   afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis shows much of northeast
   Mississippi and northwest Alabama has warmed 4 to 5 F in the last
   hour despite some cloud cover across the area. This has led to an
   increase in low-level instability to around 750 to 1000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE. Warming is expected to continue with low-level moisture
   advection which will lead to moderate instability by mid-afternoon.
   The recent heating in this area has provided enough instability for
   a reinvigoration of lightning from some of the convection in
   northern Mississippi. Therefore, expect more widespread storm
   coverage within the next hour or two as surface destabilization
   continues to increase. 

   Deep-layer shear in this area is very favorable for supercell and
   low-level mesocyclone development with deep layer effective shear
   around 55 to 60 knots and 0-1 SRH around 350 m2/s2 per GWX VWP.
   Therefore, these storms will pose a tornado threat with the
   potential for strong tornadoes, especially as supercells mature into
   northwest Alabama.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/14/2019

Cyclone Idai, moving across the Mozambique Channel has completed an ERC and slightly reintensified to Cat 3. The internal structure of the cyclone has taken on annular characteristics. It is forecast to make landfall near the city of Beira in Mozambique. Despite Idai's intensity, flash flooding will be the greatest threat to the city and surrounding region. Certainly storm surge up the Pungwe River also poses a dangerous threat to life and property.

SPC AC 080700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2019

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE ARKLAMISS INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWESTERN TN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from parts of eastern
   Oklahoma and Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valleys, lower
   Ohio Valley, and Southeast. The best potential for scattered
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes appears to be across parts of the
   ArkLaMiss into northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. A
   couple of these tornadoes could be strong.

   ...Synopsis...
   A negatively tilted shortwave trough initially over the southern and
   central Plains will move rapidly northeastward to the Upper Midwest,
   Great Lakes, and OH Valley regions by Saturday evening. An
   associated surface low over central KS should develop northeastward
   in the same time frame to the vicinity of eastern IA/northern IL
   while deepening slightly. A cold front attendant to this surface low
   will sweep eastward across much of the lower/mid MS Valley into the
   lower OH Valley and Mid-South through the day. The trailing portion
   of this front should stall over parts of the Southeast Saturday
   night as this boundary becomes increasingly aligned parallel to the
   mid-level flow.

   ...East TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valleys, lower OH Valley, TN
   Valley, and Southeast...
   Increasing ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough
   and a strengthening low-level jet will likely foster an increase in
   convective coverage and intensity across parts of eastern OK/TX into
   the ArkLaTex region early Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will
   have some potential to be surface-based, especially along and south
   I-40 in central AR where surface dewpoints should reach into the mid
   60s to the south of a warm front. A couple tornadoes and isolated
   damaging winds should be the main threat given the strong low-level
   shear that will be present, although some large hail could also
   occur as far northward as the Ozarks in southern MO with any
   elevated supercells that develop.

   The main uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude of the severe
   threat across the lower MS Valley into the Mid South remains the
   northward extent of potential destabilization. The early morning
   convection should move quickly east-northeastward in tandem with the
   low-level jet and surface cold front. It appears that a greater
   chance for surface-based thunderstorms should occur from parts of
   the ArkLaMiss region into northern MS and southwestern TN from late
   Saturday morning into the early afternoon, where MLCAPE of 500-1000
   J/kg could develop. Low-level shear is forecast to be very strong
   through 18-21Z as a 50-65 kt southwesterly low-level jet overlies
   this region. Forecast soundings show ample effective SRH to support
   rotating updrafts, and a few tornadoes could occur, particularly if
   convection can remain semi-discrete. There is some concern that a
   couple of these tornadoes could be strong given the very favorable
   kinematic environment. Scattered damaging winds may also be possible
   across this region. By late afternoon into the evening, the
   shortwave trough and strongest mid-level flow will become
   increasingly displaced to the north of the greater low-level
   moisture across the TN Valley and Southeast. Still, some severe
   threat may persist into parts of middle TN and northern/central AL.

   Farther north into the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley, confidence
   in sufficient destabilization to support surface-based convection is
   even more questionable. Regardless, there will be very strong low-
   and mid-level flow present which could support isolated damaging
   winds and perhaps a tornado. This threat should wane with eastward
   extent across southern IN and central KY by Saturday evening as
   low-level moisture and related instability become increasingly
   marginal.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10% SIG - Enhanced
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Gleason.. 03/08/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 0928Z (4:28AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Unfortunately today's event is already the deadliest tornado outbreak since the April 27th-28th outbreak in 2014. I believe there were 34 deaths as a result of that event, though that outbreak covered a much larger region of the country. Of course it only takes one strong EF3+ tornado tracking through a residential area to have a significant number of deaths. The toll in Lee County, Ala. alone stands at 22 and may rise further unfortunately. Datasets located here:

http://spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/fatalmap.php

I know it's not our area, but portions of Alabama and southern GA are getting rocked this evening. Significant long track tornadoes, some strong and some unfortunately deadly with multiple fatalities.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52142-march-3-2019-severe-threat/

Yeah today hurt. I am thankful we got a 72-96 hour break this week, but I thought today's rain would remain light and rather insignificant. Nope, a rather large area will finish around .8 to 1.25 for the upper TVA watershed.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Same video but on KnoxNews Sentinel's YT channel:

The Columbus, MS tornado has been rated an EF3.

Super Typhoon Wutip was upgraded to Cat 5. No, not unusual to see those in the WPAC, but it's a first for February. In fact, this is the first classified Cat 5 ever in the northern hemisphere for the month. 28°C SSTs around the Marinas are still warm enough to support the intensity, but atmospheric favorability and outflow for this cyclone is textbook.

Looks Like Columbus took a direct hit  https://www.meteotube.net/video-incredible-tornado-in-columbus-mississippi-feb-23-2019/

Got an engagement and won't be able to post further warnings but it does look like things are picking up. Hopefully things don't digress into an outbreak and the discrete stuff transitions more linear swifly. Regardless, good luck to everyone.

Here is the most recent warning on cell east of Philadelphia, MS, moving ENE:

Well-defined quasi-linear meso circulation on the strong line approaching MS/AL line moving north of Aberdeen, MS.

Discrete cells over central MS starting to get that look.

West of Booneville, MS:

First tornado warning of the event issued in Walker Co., Alabama:

Uptick QPF a bit further on the 00z. I hope this busts.

HWRF has TC Gaja making landfall in India near Cat 4 intensity.

I'll go with the ECMWF Euro as usual. Either way it is rainy crap weather on Election Day. Consider early voting if not already done, weighing the next two days also. Halloween is today and looks like rain tomorrow (Thursday) which is the last day of early voting. I respect no politics on the weather board; we love weather first. Just a note on weather related logistics. Happy and safe Halloween!

Thanks, Jeff! No need to remind when you are merely being informative about what to expect weather-wise while people are out exercising their right as citizens. Hopefully no severe variety storms or high wind impact events, and crap rain is all anybody has to deal with that day.

Yutu continues to buzzsaw along due west.

Yutu appears to be reintensifying. The ERC completed many hours ago and both microwave and visible imagery confirm a large and well-developed eyewall that continues to clear out. It is surrounded by a rather large CDO -- a big donut.

Yutu may also not be done with land either. Some of the globals are flirting with Luzon. It is possible Yutu could even have a south of west motion for a time as heights may rebuild west under a lifting trough to the north. That trough was originally capturing Yutu, but that solution is losing recent model support.

Night time visible band uses moon light and some other remote sensing techniques. You can see the stadium shape of the eye down near the surface and lower level. The northern portion of Saipan may have missed the worst of the eyewall but it's still a guess at this point. The southern half may have got the worst. Clearly all of Tinian experienced full frontal and backside winds. I want to refrain from hyperbole, but there probably is catastrophic devestation for anything not built within the strictest of code. Image courtesy of CIMSS and William Straka and Scott Bachmeier:

And the non-colorized loop:

AVN loop of Yutu through landfall: