Windspeed

Starting to get excited. 2"/hr rates is no joke. If that heavy deformation band sets up, even if the strongest of the event only last 3-5 hours, that's a nice haul for NETN/SWVA. 4-6" for the upper northeast Valley seems possible with the higher elevations getting thumped. 8-12" looks doable for the Smokies, Banner Elk, Mt. Rogers, into the Blue Ridge.

We really need a "wow" button.  

Saturday will depend on the prefrontal trough. Main front is veered off with parallel upper level flow, not really a tornado machine.
Mississippi and Alabama will start Saturday capped. However the cap will gradually erode. Prefrontal trough is forecast and will be there. Question is the cap.
If the cap breaks down there, discrete supercells will bring their usual threats. They would probably go from rooted to tornado in an hour. That kind of shear, this time with low level flow, would spin up tornadoes rapidly. Would be MDT but too early to make the call now. That's only if the cap breaks.
If the cap holds then it'll look a lot like Wednesday - which still had Sand Mountain tornado(es). However that's not a huge day across the region. SPC should hold with ENH on this afternoon's Day 2.

Even an dusting would be a total win at this point as the Valley has had big nothing so far this season.

Josh must be losing his touch, is he suffering from long covid or something 

RAI absolutely went beastmode today. May make a run at Cat 5 before landfall. Any chasers going to be documenting this one? 

This may have to be tabbed a special indicator by the survey crew, not unlike the ripped up hospital parking stops for the Joplin EF5, but this rebar enforced concrete foundation was annihilated at a home site in Bremen.

Looks like ground scouring can be seen near Bremen.

What's happening/not happening on Friday?

Though I agree somewhat, I think a better solution would be to look at revising the wind speed category system. To me, cat 4 should comprise 130-150 mph, cat 5 should be 150-170 mph and there should be a cat 6, for storms such as Dorian and Irma. I think the difference in wind magnitude between a 160 mph hurricane and a 180 mph hurricane is enough to justify a separate category for only the strongest storms on earth. 

Weird, NHC has named some garbage circulations this summer but you get a storm packing almost 100mph guts into eastern Mass and nothing?  

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts 

NHC is forecasting a Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Rick. But the core looks to be in a favorable environment for some beefy rapid intensity gains over the next 24 hours. Leaning towards Rick being a Category 4 landfall near or between Lázaro Cárdenas and Zihautanejo. Hopefully not a direct hit on either city.

Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern Mexico could cause some weakening. After landfall, the cyclone will weaken rapidly and the system may lose its identity sooner than shown in this forecast.

NHC is forecasting a Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Rick. But the core looks to be in a favorable environment for some beefy rapid intensity gains over the next 24 hours. Leaning towards Rick being a Category 4 landfall near or between Lázaro Cárdenas and Zihautanejo. Hopefully not a direct hit on either city.

Pretty impressive statistic here. I had thought the entire tropics, not just the Atlantic Basin, but globally, seemed too quiet. But no Category 3+ hurricanes in such a long period of time for early-to-mid Autumn is rare.

In early October, there were indicators of an active Caribbean around mid-to-late October. I had expected several more hurricanes including one more major hurricane by closing of shop in November. Well that appears to all be unlikely at this point. Beyond a marginal convective disturbance southeast of the Lesser Antilles, the basin appears to have shut down. Can't rule out one more hurricane but the potential is just not there for the time being.

We can hope. I know that is inappropriate, but still it is always a long wait before the next season.

Interesting to think back how this season would compare to other seasons say in the past 20 years (even though it's not even over yet).  In terms of US impacts, obviously 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 stand alone.  But other than those, 2011 had Irene, 2012 had Sandy, 2016 had Matthew brushing the coast, 2018 had Michael and Florence.  2007 and 2008 destruction was mostly in the Caribbean and Central America.  I can't think of any really bad US impacts in 2000-2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013-2015, and 2019.  With the mere presence of Ida, in terms of US impacts I'd put this season just behind 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, and maybe 2008 in the past 21 years.  Definitely wouldn't call it a dud.

The list posted a page before had Donna, Carrie and Esther listed in the top 10; of course they were pre-satellite era hurricanes. Everything prior to satellite archive is based on shipping and land obs in and around those earlier historical systems that were reanalysized for ACE. So it might be best to post the top 10 since '66, which here that is along with a nice write-up by Brian McNoldy, a TC Researcher at The Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami University.
http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2021/10/hurricane-sam-clinches-its-place-in.html
This places Sam in the top five during the satellite era.

Going to be real close with Luis on the 5PM AST package if it hasn't transitioned by then. I think it will fall just short with transition occurring during the evening. Over calculated the numbers a smidgen. Inez is safe at this point. It really needs to stay tropical until 11PM AST and I don't think that will happen now. Transition is already underway.

EDIT: Sam did indeed have enough tropical fire left in the furnace to remain a classified TC on 11PM AST/3AM GMT; therefore, Sam surpassed Luis before succumbing to the frontal trough. Still a very powerful PT low for any maritime shipping interests. That's all, folks.

Sam is now among the top 10 biggest ACE producers, kicking down Matthew. It should pass Esther and Allen on the next advisory to reach 8th. It might stay tropical long enough today even supplant Luis and reach 7th place. Going to be a close call on Inez.

Don't ever recall seeing such mature concentric eyewalls this far north. I suppose this type of thing was always possible as long as OHC is sufficient enough to support intense lapse rates and convection. Of course, colder upper tropospheric temps this time of year at this latitude combined with +26°C ought to do it.

Yeah, I'll reiterate wow here. Sam looks like it has reintensified this evening as it crossed over a +26 warm eddy within the Gulf Stream.

Sam has one more +26°C warm eddy to cross on its trek across the Gulf Stream. After that the SSTs drop off dramatically. However, ET transition should begin tomorrow with the trough ejecting off of Eastern Canada. Presentation is pretty darn good for a hurricane at ~40°N.