Windspeed

Multi-model ensemble tracks for the 95L/Beryl from onset to final landfall.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1810425710223483086?t=ZBTiQmbgg0oO73E-KiNHvw&s=19

Beryl may end up being the most expensive Cat 1 landfall just from wind damage. Katrina was pretty high due to Miami. It's never good when you have an eyewall cross over a densely populated metropolitan and residential area, not even a Cat 1.

 A strengthening 1 is often worse than a weakening 2.

Beryl appears to gradually be increasing forward motion. Must be feeling the trough. Flooding is occurring, but hopefully, Beryl can lift out by this afternoon, and the metro can avoid any trailing feeders off the GOM.

Landfall.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MATAGORDA TEXAS...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OCCURRING WITH FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 96.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080907
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

The strengthening forecast by the regional hurricane models began
in earnest just after the last advisory was issued. Doppler radar
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Beryl regained hurricane strength near 04Z, and intensification
continued until the just-occurred landfall of the 28 n mi wide eye
on the Texas coast. The landfall central pressure was near 979 mb,
and the maximum winds were near 70 kt.

The initial motion is 355/10. Beryl should move northward for the
next 12 h through a break in the subtropical ridge, with the
center moving through eastern Texas. After that, the cyclone
should turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed, with
the cyclone accelerating across the lower Mississippi Valley and
into the Ohio Valley until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast.

Now that Beryl is moving inland, it should quickly weaken, with the
system becoming a tropical storm in the next few hours and a
tropical depression in a little over 24 hours. After that, the
cyclone should merge with a frontal system over Mississippi Valley
and become an extratropical low before it dissipates.


Key Messages:

1. There is a continuing danger of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine
Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Beryl is bringing damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of
the Texas coast this morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from
Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into
tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also
expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Tuesday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 28.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON COAST
12H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 32.7N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 35.0N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/1800Z 40.0N 85.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 42.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Josh has 982 mb and dead calm, near the center of the eye. Official landfall is imminent.

Edit: 981 now.

Eyewall approaching here. Green power flashes continue. 

Gust to 76 at Port O’Connor

At least on IR satellite the shape resembles having an eye:

https://col.st/Y7YNB

We would need to see persistent intense CBs in the core, and that just hasn't occurred yet. Beryl is gradually improving but still lacks a well-formed eyewall. Good news so far to mitigate wind and surge. We're within the 12-hour window from landfall. Unless there is a rapid change in core convection, a Cat 2 is looking less likely.

 Unfortunately but not surprisingly, DMAX appears to have been a factor leading to strengthening with increased convection collocated with the center. Recon confirms an SLP drop to ~990 mb, a rather significant drop overnight. 

 We’ll see whether or not this increased convection holds as we go toward DMIN late today. With dry air/shear decreasing further and SSTs increasing, I expect it will. 

 With ~18 more hours over water projected til the ~3AM landfall, SSTs increasing to a whopping ~88 F, and another DMAX then being approached, a strengthening cat 2 at landfall is quite possible with an outside chance for just reaching cat 3.

Good discussion by Beven. When recon arrives, it will be interesting to see if the surface circulation is getting tugged any underneath the new MLC and if the intense CBs on the western periphery continue to be due to the onset of an eyewall.

I will say that these convective bursts are not waning this evening. If anything, it's growing in coverage. But structure is an unknown until recon gets there with Beryl not being in range of radar.

That last part is what I’ve been thinking about a lot. It’s a relatively compact storm but has a very broad wind field. It’s entirely possible that intensification means more that the RMW contracts some but remains broad, rather than contracts a lot and is very intense at the core.
I do think we need about 24 hours to have a real sense of which prevails. I do think a low end 3 remains plausible but unlikely. I think a Harvey like outcome is extremely unlikely.
I’ll also say again that I think the angle of approach will also help to tighten this up near landfall. 

From Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall:
While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl
 
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809643994177237427|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

This is an excellent visual of the dry air it’s fighting currently. I actually think the southern portion looks ok, but it’s all fragile until everything is fully mixed out. I think the inflow on the eastern side could easily collapse things.
Shear has been gradually pulling away but still lurking as well.
 

 
Hard to see on the image above but SSTs only increase as it gets closer to the coast. That should make it increasingly easy for deep convection to fire.

In less than six hours, Beryl went from devoid of any mid-level vortex to a partial eyewall. That's absurd. I had just analyzed the storm this morning and accepted, based on in situ recon and the stable airmass parked over the low-level circulation, that it was going to take at least another 24 to regenerate its core.

Good grief... Tropical meteorology is the toughest for reason. Too much chaos.

Something else I keep noticing is a trend in the TC models to show an intense feeder or two off of the GOM long after Beryl is already well-inland and making the turn NE. These feeders could train over the same coastal regions of Texas and produce flash flooding. No where near as severe as Harvey, mind you, as Beryl should be lifting out of Texas much faster with trough interaction. But these bands off the GOM, given strong instability and training convection, do not take long to produce flash flooding. People in that region are hardened to flood-producing TCs. But they certainly don't need to deal with any more. Hopefully, Beryl's forward motion mitigates this.

The HAFS suite, in general, did an excellent job modeling Beryl's interactions with the ULL, including the dry stable airmass that now plagues its circulation this morning. Despite current conditions, it's important to note that persistent runs of these models, especially the HAFS-B, regenerate and tighten Beryl's vortex by the time it interacts with the Texas coast. Convection needs to burst and persist, not only regenerate an MLC, but stack the column if the RMW is to sufficiently tighten within an eyewall. Any delay in that process decreases the hurricane threat, and the official forecast could always come down. Still, as 40/70 Benchmark alluded to yesterday, a northward turn track adjacent to the Texas coast allows enough land interaction to assist Beryl in tightening the LLC. The NHC's forecast of 80 kts near the coast is quite reasonable. Mid-to-upper environmental conditions will continuously improve throughout this afternoon until landfall on Monday. With sufficient instability and divergence aloft, Beryl should be an intensifying hurricane through landfall. Hopefully, with the current delay and slow process of reorganizing today, we will avoid any rapid intensification on Monday. But a lot can change in 48-60 hours.

Beryl's mid-level vorticity is nonexistent this morning. The ULL is forcing extremely dry stable airmass into the remainder of Beryl's broader 700-400 hPa circulation. Without any compact MLC, all that remains is Beryl's surface low. Though that low remains very well-defined, the RMW is now over 60 miles at the surface. It's going to be a slower process for a core to rebuild and shield off the effects of all that lingering stable airmass. You can easily see the ULL is still pumping that airmass into the COC from the southwestern GOM on water vapor imagery.

Beryl may need another 24 hours to produce enough convection over the center to regenerate a core. The current environmental state has squashed any concern I had of a potential major landfall yesterday. Simply put, Beryl just doesn't have enough time now. But I do think Beryl will eventually produce enough deep convection near the center to regenerate a mid-level vortex, and should have enough time to tighten its RMW and regain hurricane intensity, which the official forecast continues to call for, and remains well-supported by TC modeling. Beryl may end up with a larger core; therefore, wind and surge impacts could cover a larger area of Texas coastline.

It really took a beating. This is a really tough forecast and I wonder how many in the general public will take it seriously if it’s still a mess tomorrow and the track guidance keeps shifting.

Some good discussion on current and potential future structure of Beryl going on right now.

Based on reconnaissance, it looks like Beryl's MLC is decoupled or significantly titled downstream to the ENE of the low-level center. This is due to influences of the mid-to-upper level low over the western GOM. I anticipated this last night, and it was simulated in numerous TC models. But recon also did not find any other competing mid-level vorticity to the north. So, for now, we just have Beryl's dominant mid-level vortex. We'll have to wait and see if that MLC takes over by tomorrow or if the old low-level center regenerates a new vortex further southwest in track. Again, implications are high in both how quickly Beryl reintensifies and ultimately landfall location in Texas.

Shelf waters north of the Yucatán are relatively cool between March and July. This is a climatological norm for that part of the GOM due to persistent vertical transport of cold, deeper water onto shallow continental shelf north of the Yucatán, and upwelling from low-level trades. Additionally, some influence of drag off of the warm Yucatán Current (Gulf Stream), which is further east within the Yucatán channel, aid in cool water extending north. This persistent upwelling keeps SSTs several degrees Celsius below the warmer overall background GOM temperatures, usually ranging from 24 to 27°C along the northern Yucatán coast in June and July while the rest of the GOM ranges from 27-30°C. This typically halts intensification in TCs that track or wonder too close to there or delay reintensification of TCs moving back off of the peninsula into the GOM. But it's not a large surface area of ocean comparatively as SSTs increase substantially only about 100-150 miles north. As such, I wouldn't expect Beryl to immediately begin reintensification after reemerging over water until it's well northwest of the Yucatán, regardless of its core structure or upper-level environment.

Low-level reconnaissance is sampling the storm and should give us an idea of how close the COC is to the coast. Earlier, they flew through the strong convection to the north of Beryl, in the outer band, and there does not yet appear to be anything organized in the mid-levels out over the GOM. So, there is no sign of competing vorticity that was hinted at in earlier runs of the HAFS suite.

NHC 5PM discussion...