Windspeed

This is just wrong 

Surprised this is only at 140kts. Hard for me to believe such an incredible sat presentation along with a cleared out 5 mile wide pinhole eye is only producing 140kts.
Anyone know the pressure on this thing?

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A VERY COMPACT CORE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 5NM PINHOLE EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 080433Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED THE PINHOLE EYE SURROUNDED BY A CORE OF INTENSE CONVECTION AS WELL A MOAT REGION AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION WHICH IS LIKELY THE FIRST SIGN OF A DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMMINENTLY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE STRUGGLING TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF STY 19W DUE TO EXTREMELY SMALL EYE, THE ADT AT TIMES SWITCHING TO EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE AS IT STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN TRACK ON THE EYE. SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO PROVIDE CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AS THE RESOLUTION OF AVAILABLE INFRARED IMAGERY IS SUCH THAT THE EYE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS ARE SHOWING WILD SWINGS FROM AS HIGH AS 16C TO AS LOW AS -48C. ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG INNER-CORE LIGHTNING BURST WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 0200Z AND 0600Z, WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION LEADING UP TO THE 0600Z INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF AN UNOFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 OBTAINED AT 0310Z USING THE ADT EYE TEMP OF 16C AND COMPARING THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AT THAT TIME TO THE STRUCTURE AT 0600Z, WHICH HAD DEPICTED AN EVEN SMALLER EYE AND COLDER CLOUD TEMPERATURES, THE LIGHTNING BURST AND ASSESSMENT OF THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA. THUS THE LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY IS WELL ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE FIX ESTIMATES. STY 19W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW NORTHERLY VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, HIGH OHC WATERS.

Looks like a low-level circulation is forming tonight. Quite evident on shortwave too. Good call on the thread. A tropical storm by landfall is looking likely now.

Looks like a low-level circulation is forming tonight. Quite evident on shortwave too. Good call on the thread. A tropical storm by landfall is looking likely now.

Larry's structure has improved some this evening thanks to some convective bursting rotating around the eyewall. Larry's forward motion appears to finally be increasing as well. It's possible that Larry's core may have gained enough forward motion to counter the rate of significant upwelling. Not expecting anything impressive as far as reintensification tomorrow, but that is usually when surprises occur [in my case]. If nothing else, perhaps it might restrengthen enough to avoid losing major hurricane status the next few days. It is barely a Cat 3, and though 850 hPa winds are still between 100-110 kts, the SFMR data was perhaps only supportive of 90 kts. Could have been undersampling, but, at any rate, Larry appears to be holding its own if not rebounding a bit tonight. This remains an enormous hurricane in size and wind field, which should act as a deterrent to significant strengthening.

Well so much for the Atlantic Basin (Larry) overcoming the Western Pacific's ACE. Chanthu is about to become violent and will likely evolve into one of 2021's most intense long-tracking tropical cyclones. The rate of organization is outpacing forecast trends and it looks like this has a good shot at becoming a Super Typhoon. It will have a very favorable environment for rapid intensification.

Correct me if I am wrong but generally the larger the eye, the more stable the eye is and less susceptible it is to eye-wall replacement cycles. Fun fact btw, the largest eye ever recorded was around 230 miles across.

Larry's forward motion appears to be slowing. I suppose we're going to find out just how much shallow TCHP can support a 'cane this large. Another EWRC is underway. But Larry is not in any hurry to the NW on its current heading at the moment. Granted there is still plenty of deeper OHC to the northwest. Really at this point it's just a visual experiment on if Larry can maintain enough thermodynamic driven convection to fuel the even larger eyewall that is forming. There is a rather large region of 29°C SSTs northwest on its current heading. Should be enough to keep it a major hurricane through Thursday.

Larry is pumping up the Atlantic's ACE. Based on its forecast alone, it should allow the Atlantic to overtake the EPAC and WPAC barring any potential development in those basins this week.

Dropsonde recorded 957 mb at 9 kts. 102 kt SFMR in the northern eyewall. Likely a bit stronger in the NE eyewall based on relative motion. So the satellite intensity estimates are performing well as is the NHC's best track intensity guidance.

A convergent boundary has setup in place north of the Yucatán that is associated with 91L's northern axis. Low level flow is southerly but with an absence of any notable cyclonic rotation. However, if this boundary can persist with strong convection and increase the gradient, an MCS may develop, which could increase potential of development as the feature drifts north into the central GOM. Shear appears too strong over the BOC for anything to get going for the original low pressure. If something is to organize, it's going to be out of that region of strong low level convergence.

Larry has a huge circulation. But its new massive eyewall might be moving just fast enough with respect to oceanic heat content to do something special over night, perhaps not seen in the Atlantic since Isabel: A giant annular intensifying major hurricane. Category four intensity seems in reach as the presentation continues to improve. Could it make a run at Isabel's lofty status as the most powerful annular 'cane? If it can maintain forward motion enough to avoid its own upwelling we could definitely see some significant intensification here. But Isabel is the rarest of the rare, so probably no...

Larry appears to be going through another EWRC. It looks like the inner eyewall, which isn't exactly small, is not convectively bursting as much and may be breaking down. The new eye may end up being quite large.

This tweet from Dr. Ventrice is strongly misleading IMHO.
 
 

Well now quasi-annular is a thing. Probably should have had an official designated title when 'canes are showing annular characteristics but are not fully annular. Kind of like quasi-linear super cells. Linear cells that have super cell characteristics.

Guidance is allowing greater confident this remains east of Bermuda and keeps them out of the core. The remaining threats would be large swells for the ECONUS seaboard and problems for maritime shipping interests. But direct landfall is becoming unlikely, which is good news. Hopefully no wild swings back west until the track is locked in..

I don't believe that that is true.
Afaik, the actual swings in temperature are so fast that they are mushed by the process of ice forming and melting , with the associated gas diffusion.
Basically, the cores show very abrupt changes, which we are struggling to understand. 

I am pretty sure that is a non tropical low off the SE coast. So no Fujiwara.

I'd been under the impression that very sharp climate swings were the norm, as evidenced by the very abrupt temperature changes during the most recent ice age and the 'Younger Dryas' cold snap. 

Oh man, Larry is checking all my boxes here:

• Cape Verde Hurricane
• Minimal land threat
• Major Hurricane Status
• Rapid Intensification
• Large eye
• Annular characteristics
• Daylight hours (visible satellite presentation)

Yes, I am a weenie.

Climates have been changing since the beginning of our planet. Obviously what we are doing as a species has some kind of effect on our environment. We know we can kill a river or lake very quickly, etc. We cut down forests and plant fields. We cut into mountains and build roads. We build large cities. We definitely change the atmosphere on some level.
But maybe the climate is changing anyway as it always has.
I get curious, if the oceans keep heating up and hurricanes become less effective at cooling them down, what happens?
More storms, bigger storms, so on at first. But I suppose a hurricane can only become so big or so powerful.
I wonder if on the Earth over the past billions of years there were storms more powerful than hurricanes. What would they be like? A Jupiter like storm maybe?

Recent satellite estimates support an upgrade to Category 3. The NHC's 00z best track analysis now shows 100 kts. Since we do not have recon data to overrule estimates, this is most likely the upgrade intensity on the next advisory package, 11PM AST.

AL, 12, 2021090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 427W, 100, 964, HU

Sunset over what is likely to be a major hurricane by morning. A large eye is clearing out as the Sun slips over the horizon.