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Windspeed

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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. The slower core organization of Maria developing a closed eyewall may turn out to be a blessing for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Montserrat getting a hurricane versus major hurricane. Of course Montserrat has the bonus threat of mudflows off of Soufriere Hills volcano.
  2. A 75% chance 5 days before the Bahamas? lol... I wouldn't be comfortable with a 25% chance unless Jose gets kicked OTS like the ECMWF 00z run showed on Thursday night. I might give it a 50% chance of any CONUS impact at best this far out if Jose were streaming into the Maritimes. But you would still need a solid 500mb ridge extending into the SE interior to increase Florida's odds of landfall. Having a moderate 500mb vort east of the Mid-Atlantic opens the door for Maria to gain latitude near the Bahamas. It's more a question of timing right now and Jose's 500mb vort. That really is the key for any potential CONUS landfall. But, of course, this is all out in 144+ hour fantasy land. The talking points about chances and odds with respect to any CONUS impacts are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and will most likely change by mid week.
  3. Sitting over ocean east of Mid-Atlantic and south of New England in 240 hr La La Land. 500 mb ridge backed east. Surface ridge over Quebec. Probably results in New England landfall, but again, the op will probably change with every run for many days until it gets a better handle on how Jose breaks down. EPS is your friend and null and void beyond 144 in such a wild setup.
  4. 12z ECMWF is very similiar to last night's 00z. Incredible block over Nova Scotia/North Atlantic forces stalled out Jose off Mid-Atlantic. Eventually weakens and breaks down 500mb vort and fills in weakeness. Begins to increase heights over Mid-Atlantic. However, it does so with Maria further east this time. This looks like a similar stall setup as Jose between Bermuda and the CONUS. And being so far out will likely continue changing/evolving with each run depending on small adjustments with Jose's interaction.
  5. Tropical cyclones still need luck or a lack thereof if you are in their way. Yes, the moderate La Nina has relaxed the overall sub-tropical jet across the basin. But you still have TUTTs and cutoffs that evolve and interact in the upper levels. Maria's forecast track just happens to be positioned perfectly for strong divergence versus shear. Position Maria 10 deg longitude either west or east right now and it's sheared out. Lee is struggling.
  6. Yes, the westward motion of the TUTT over the central Caribbean is faster than Maria's forward motion. In fact, one of the reasons for the high percentage chance of rapid intensification is due to the impressive upper environment and outflow pattern that evolves on modeling. There is a large anticyclonic pattern right over Maria through Thursday or at least as far out in modeled range as I would trust. The 200 mb anticyclonic flow around Maria is just bananas.
  7. The longer it struggles with structure as a developing cyclone, perhaps the longer it will delay RI or avoid RI altogether prior to land interaction. Unfortunately there is still plenty of time for it to do so.
  8. Yes and more insane is the processes for landfall are completely opposite from last night's 00z run. The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. First, I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Force is strong with that block. Jose's 500mb vort gets completely filled and dissipates. Strong heights build back over the Mid-Atlantic and Maria gets driven inland. Oh well, this is all still a long time out in fantasy land and probably won't happen, but still fascinating for such a solution to be modeled.
  9. Convective towers are really taking off around the vortex. The MLC is tight. This may initially reach hurricane intensity with a very small core/diameter eyewall in the next 24 hrs.
  10. 12z ECMWF flips back to stalling Jose instead of the 00z swift OTS solution. That results in some crazy fujiwara and phase play. This is going to be another one of those wait and see tracks. May take another day or two before the Euro gets a better handle on Jose for downstream CONUS impacts with Maria.
  11. Banding is getting stronger. And I agree that the center may be south of track and model initialization. It was difficult to define an exact location earlier but that is no longer the case. This looks like a tropical storm. Would be surprised if this isn't upgraded to Maria at the 5 PM EST advisory. This is getting together fast.
  12. I posted this last night in the main Atlantic discussion thread. My thoughts haven't changed. Anxious to see if the 12z ECMWF release in about an hour continues to kick out Jose much faster for downstream implications with a future Maria and the CONUS. Obviously the more immediate dire cause to worry is the Antilles. Edit: Jtm12180, if you don't mind maintaining, updating and editing the title of the thread over the coming days, this can continue on as the main discussion thread for Maria.
  13. Looks like the ERC occurred in best case scenario with landfall.
  14. I think they might be a little too north in their forecast track. Of course it could gain a more WNW motion between now and landfall, but it really looks to be bullseyeing the mouth of the Palanan River.
  15. The forecasted location of landfall receives more severe landfalling cyclones than any place on Earth. That combined with the mountainous terrain of the region probably has a lot to do with the far less densely populated geography as compared to the rest of the Philippines. However, there are small villages and townships still located along the coastline of northeastern Luzon. Hopefully the center makes landfall where one of those villages aren't located. Additionally, you are correct about the threat of inland flooding. This typhoon has a powerful circulation with a very low pressure. As it pushes west, it will be a big threat to higher populated regions of central and western Luzon. That risk can certainly not be downplayed. Edit: Divilacan Bay has several small coastal townships that are the closest to the current projected landfall point. That area was also blasted by Super Typhoon Megi in 2010. Inland flooding from that typhoon displaced 200,000 people as it moved across Luzon. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divilacan,_Isabela https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maconacon,_Isabela
  16. Ok, great! It wasn't showing any changes for several hours. Glad they're up. Anxious to see what they have to report besides.
  17. Data equipment and communications obviously failed at the airport on Itbayat.
  18. The last report from the airport in Banco, which looks like it positioned just under the southern and southeastern edge of the intense eyewall, reported sustained SW winds of 96 mph and gusts to 116. https://www.wunderground.com/ph//basco/zmw:00000.1.98135 No reports out of the island of Itbayat. EDIT: Whooooa there... Banco airport last report is S wind @ 122 mph, 150 mph gust. I don't think it was under the worst of the backside eyewall either. Also looks like they're getting raked with a nasty intensifying outer eyewall.
  19. Meranti made its first landfall in the Batanes on the island of Itbayat.
  20. Think I'm buying that 160 kts now. May be even higher. Very symmetrical and expansive cold ring and the eye has further warmed. Really impressive system. In reference to the comparison to Haiyan earlier, Haiyan had a slightly colder ring, but it may have been low-balled on its peak intensity estimates anyway.
  21. Very close call for the southern tip of Taiwan. The cyclone will probably have a larger core by the time it is at closest proximity there. Even if the inner eyewall doesn't make landfall, it's very likely a concentric outer wall will impact land and they will experience typhoon force winds. For later today, the 06 HWRF has the northern Batanes nearly in the southern eyewall. The town of Banco is in the NW inlet of Batan proper. They will likely experience typhoon force winds even if the eyewall misses the island to the north.
  22. Yeah, looks like model consensus has shifted south as has JTWC's official forecast. Looks like the core will miss Taiwan and China's mainland will be dealing with a stronger intensity at landfall than previously forecast. This could end up the worst direct wind impacts at landfall for China for many years. The core will likely weaken and drop down to upper Category Three status due to internal reorganization and an expansion of pressure gradient /wind field, but Meranti may have a much larger core by then, affecting a larger area of shoreline with typhoon force winds.
  23. Haiyan was at a much lower latitude and had better upper tropospheric forcing. Probably the most incredible structure and symmetry we've ever seen in a tropical cyclone. I don't think Meranti can eclipse that. Inevitably, it is going to go through an internal structural change. It may have even peaked. As has been repeated, I wish they had recon over there.
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