Windspeed

I think they will make it. Based on radar, we're 1.5 hrs from western eyewall crossing over eastern Dominica.

Yes extreme defoliation will occur but having deep tree roots versus bald/naked ridges is better than nothing.

A direct track over the island will have some effect though the NHC can't realistically forecast that due to it being such a small island. The vortex of Maria is tiny. This isn't a huge 25nm diameter eyewall like Irma that was able to engulf Lesser Antilles islands with peaks without much effect. Such a small eyewall in Maria crossing a 4,700 ft peak/ridge may interact enough to hinder the LLC but that doesn't mean it will cause significant weakening. The disruption may be enough to temporarily pause ongoing intensification however. Again, that will likely be temporary.

I have posted several of these but this takes the cake. This is the most impressive eyewall signature on a small vortex I have seen not utilizing NEXRAD. Holy cow!

Dominica has a pretty sharp incline in topography from sea floor and shoreline. Surge isn't as big an issue even for the water fronts. Maria, though intense, has a very small vortex besides. This is obviously an extreme wind event for the island. Dominica also has 1,400 meter volcanic peaks and unfortunately there are residences located up on the sides of ridges above towns. Elevated structures may be subject to higher gusts. Mudflows are always an issue on volcanic terrain but at least the ridges and peaks are heavily vegetated.

8nm wide stadium effect.

Yes, amazing eyewall presentation on radar. This probably is stronger than last recon data.

As long as the ECMWF continues to evolve and deepen a post-tropical/hybrid mid-level storm out of Jose and lock it down in the same general region off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast, it will continue to funnel mid-level steering in an OTS solution for Maria. Until we see it either go back to modeling a much weaker and filled/dissipated remnant of Jose's 500mb vort or kick it out altogether, modeled landfall for Maria is unlikely. I do think it is overdoing the intensity of 500mb cold core baroclinic forcing. I think a more likely solution is the ECMWF's earlier runs showing strong filling of heights and a build back of ridging. That still doesn't mean landfall, but a close call versus sharp OTS. Still a long way out.

Visible says it all. This is a very small and intense vortex.

I would think so. It was a Tropical Storm this time yesterday... [emoji102]

I understand your point but I am going to have to disagree. NOAA has a research division with a plethora of peer-reviewed climatological data in literature and journals that are accessible online. Information that is available for good people like Don and others to present that in discussion on any forum or media worth their weight in salt. The focus of the meteorologists at the NHC should be forecasting based on current synoptic pattern and modeling, and further working with other government agencies to provide advisories based on those forecasts. Perhaps what happened 83 years ago with a cyclone is helpful from a climatological standpoint; however, it isn't very helpful from a forecast standpoint. In fact, mixing climatology into a hurricane forecast discussion might even be misconstrued by the media. They have enough difficulty understanding 5-7 day forecast errors as is. You're shooting yourself in the foot mentioning something like 75% of major hurricanes made landfall at this position or impacted this region may set unrealistic expectations when the synoptic pattern or atmospheric steering features may be nothing like those previous examples. Again, just forecast. Leave the climatological discussion outside of official forecast discussion.

Impressive...

And what a tiny CDO it is...

I am aware. However, the current steady trend of intensification beats it already going through rapid intensification. Yes it could close off the eyewall and bomb out tonight/tomorrow. But just looking for positives and if it remains a slower intensification might not undergo RI until past those particular islands. Still a dangerous situation.

The slower core organization of Maria developing a closed eyewall may turn out to be a blessing for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Montserrat getting a hurricane versus major hurricane. Of course Montserrat has the bonus threat of mudflows off of Soufriere Hills volcano.

A 75% chance 5 days before the Bahamas? lol... I wouldn't be comfortable with a 25% chance unless Jose gets kicked OTS like the ECMWF 00z run showed on Thursday night. I might give it a 50% chance of any CONUS impact at best this far out if Jose were streaming into the Maritimes. But you would still need a solid 500mb ridge extending into the SE interior to increase Florida's odds of landfall. Having a moderate 500mb vort east of the Mid-Atlantic opens the door for Maria to gain latitude near the Bahamas. It's more a question of timing right now and Jose's 500mb vort. That really is the key for any potential CONUS landfall. But, of course, this is all out in 144+ hour fantasy land. The talking points about chances and odds with respect to any CONUS impacts are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and will most likely change by mid week.

Sitting over ocean east of Mid-Atlantic and south of New England in 240 hr La La Land. 500 mb ridge backed east. Surface ridge over Quebec. Probably results in New England landfall, but again, the op will probably change with every run for many days until it gets a better handle on how Jose breaks down. EPS is your friend and null and void beyond 144 in such a wild setup.

12z ECMWF is very similiar to last night's 00z. Incredible block over Nova Scotia/North Atlantic forces stalled out Jose off Mid-Atlantic. Eventually weakens and breaks down 500mb vort and fills in weakeness. Begins to increase heights over Mid-Atlantic. However, it does so with Maria further east this time. This looks like a similar stall setup as Jose between Bermuda and the CONUS. And being so far out will likely continue changing/evolving with each run depending on small adjustments with Jose's interaction.

Tropical cyclones still need luck or a lack thereof if you are in their way. Yes, the moderate La Nina has relaxed the overall sub-tropical jet across the basin. But you still have TUTTs and cutoffs that evolve and interact in the upper levels. Maria's forecast track just happens to be positioned perfectly for strong divergence versus shear. Position Maria 10 deg longitude either west or east right now and it's sheared out. Lee is struggling.

Yes, the westward motion of the TUTT over the central Caribbean is faster than Maria's forward motion. In fact, one of the reasons for the high percentage chance of rapid intensification is due to the impressive upper environment and outflow pattern that evolves on modeling. There is a large anticyclonic pattern right over Maria through Thursday or at least as far out in modeled range as I would trust. The 200 mb anticyclonic flow around Maria is just bananas.

The longer it struggles with structure as a developing cyclone, perhaps the longer it will delay RI or avoid RI altogether prior to land interaction. Unfortunately there is still plenty of time for it to do so.

Yes and more insane is the processes for landfall are completely opposite from last night's 00z run. The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. First, I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Force is strong with that block. Jose's 500mb vort gets completely filled and dissipates. Strong heights build back over the Mid-Atlantic and Maria gets driven inland. Oh well, this is all still a long time out in fantasy land and probably won't happen, but still fascinating for such a solution to be modeled.

Convective towers are really taking off around the vortex. The MLC is tight. This may initially reach hurricane intensity with a very small core/diameter eyewall in the next 24 hrs.

Impressive...

12z ECMWF flips back to stalling Jose instead of the 00z swift OTS solution. That results in some crazy fujiwara and phase play. This is going to be another one of those wait and see tracks. May take another day or two before the Euro gets a better handle on Jose for downstream CONUS impacts with Maria.