Maybe we need to say "above trend" instead of "above normal". Let's say the 30 year trend is an increase of .04f per year (fictional number), we draw the thirty year trend line, then forecast how far above/below the trend we expect.
This is a great analogy. Guys like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Cowher have a thousand times the football knowledge compared with myself....probably more. Are they better than me at picking games? Not by one iota.
It goes to show ya. Predictions are hard....especially about the future.
It looks like the GFS is hinting at another blocking episode in a couple of weeks, with the coldest air on the Eurasian side. Very spring-like maps with blocks and bowling balls...could be a good thing if we are looking for a big dog.