Go Kart Mozart

I have never been impressed by the BAM weather crew. Lot's of bold talk about how it's "meteorology not modelology" then they flop around like a freshly caught mackerel with each new run.

I am curious (not doubting the validity of the findings), but how did they determine the jet stream speeds from 100 years ago?

Are the flurries the cause?

I like this AI ensemble look that has been showing up. Lot's of disturbances coming out of the SW, with a strong thermal gradient just to our south?

No need for commiseration down here in the banana belt. We are at 14" on January 4rth...that's a strong start for us!

.8" here. Total surprise...I should have listened to DIT, he tried to tell us! Some years it just wants to snow.

He is dead nuts right. Can I suggest sunscreen and a big floppy hat?

Going by the AIs and AI ensembles, it looks like a simple matter of cracking a few eggs to make a nice omelet

Where is WinterWolf and what have you done with him?

The AI models are self-educating, so they should get even better with time even without tweaks to the programing. It gets interesting with models like GraphCast, which are apparently a hybrid of AI and fluid dynamics. I still like the physics models inside of four days, but beyond that time frame it seems that AI has taken the clear lead.

The Pivotal free site now has Euro Skynet ensembles with the continental view. BTW, after about the 11th or so...they look tasty.

By February 1st or so we should have a good handle on January.

1.75" in the heart of Trumbull.

My sister-in-law in Erie reported T-snow with the squall lime.

His constant inhaling of snot was annoying.

Hazey might like these runs.

Shovel it with the leaf blower?

2", then sleet, rain, dry slot.

Funny, but I was contemplating a similar question today. What would people prefer, four 7" storms over twelve days, each 3 days apart, or one 28 incher?

Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015. Really good setup but nothing came of it. Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum. Until....

Now let’s unpack the jargon. Line-by-line translation “I think we need to consider the 6-7-8 a pattern arrival event” ➡️ Around January 6–8, a new large-scale weather pattern is expected to fully arrive. Think of this as: the atmosphere reorganizes itself rather than just day-to-day weather noise. “That's going to be an H.A. implication (I suspect…)” ➡️ “H.A.” = Height Anomaly (upper-air pressure departures from normal). He’s saying this pattern change will strongly affect upper-level pressure patterns, not just surface weather. “all ens systems agree in the rather abrupt guard change in the N. Pacific” ➡️ All ensemble models agree that there’s a sudden flip in the North Pacific pattern. “Guard change” = the atmosphere switches roles quickly (like defense → offense). This agreement is important — it means the signal is probably real. “The entire circulation medium out there essentially product reverses” ➡️ The whole North Pacific flow flips (ridges become troughs, troughs become ridges). “like on a temporal dime… Really fast… intra-weekly time scale.” ➡️ This happens very fast, within a few days, not weeks. Meteorologists don’t like this — fast changes break models. Why this matters for forecasts “that's likely to cause increased model performance problems” ➡️ Models struggle when the atmosphere changes this quickly. So details beyond a few days become unreliable. “sending such a violent signal downstream” ➡️ A big Pacific change ripples eastward across North America. Weather patterns behave like waves — a hard shove upstream creates chaos downstream. “the western N/A ridge will be in a period… correction vector… toward more amplitude” ➡️ As models adjust, they will likely correct toward a stronger western North America ridge. “More amplitude” = higher ridges deeper troughs bigger temperature swings more extreme outcomes “more than is currently in the cinemas” ➡️ Current model maps are too tame. Reality is likely bigger and sharper. “wave # number/distribution argument” ➡️ This is deep meteorology, but in plain English: The way large planetary waves are rearranging forces compensation elsewhere. If heights crash in one region, they must build in another. “supplant the regions N of HA with… height anomaly reversal” ➡️ When upper-level pressure drops hard in the North Pacific, physics demands that pressure builds somewhere else — in this case: ➡️ Western North America “there will physically necessitate height growth into western North America” ➡️ A strong western ridge is basically unavoidable. This is the key sentence. Why New England should care “More than 50%… closer to 80%… takes place in < 5 days” ➡️ This is an extremely rapid atmospheric reorganization. Which means: Models haven’t “caught up” yet Downstream details are suspect “I would be reeeally leery about any depictions down stream over eastern N/A” ➡️ Do not trust model specifics for the eastern U.S. yet. Snow vs rain, cold vs warm — all still very fluid. “more amplitude is actually favored” ➡️ When things settle, expect bigger extremes, not moderation. For New England, that usually means one of these, depending on timing: Sharper cold shots Stronger storms Higher snow potential or sharper cutters Bigger pattern swings overall “That all times around the 7th for some sort of emergence E of the nations midriff longitudes.” ➡️ Around January 7, the effects of this pattern change should start clearly showing up east of the Mississippi. That’s when things “pop.” The Big Picture (in normal human language) He’s essentially warning other mets: “Hey — the Pacific is about to flip hard and fast. That almost guarantees a stronger western ridge than models currently show. Because this happens so quickly, models will struggle and probably underplay how extreme things get downstream. Expect bigger swings over the eastern U.S. around Jan 7 — and don’t lock into specifics yet.” If you want, next we can: Apply this specifically to New England snow/cold odds Decode what this implies for storm track vs cold supply Or compare this to past winters with similar Pacific flips Actually, kinda neat. Or the AI translation: This is a useful reorganization of the meteorologist's thoughts.

Paging Wiz...what do the post-storm winds look like?

I love the cold beef injection diving through the Dakotas:

I was just going to comment on that. Forget the weird solution for sensible weather, the set up is loaded...right out of the KU book.

Ah, New Brunswick is beautiful this time of year.