IWXwx

Waiting on the NAM's range to see if the ol' EE rule will be in effect. Yes, that was dragged out of the archives. I think that is what Hoosier was alluding to above.

With the amount of moisture to work with and models QPF for central/southern IN, there will be some significant flooding. Cue JanetJanet

It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics.

I'll ride it hard and put it away wet based on that map. lol (That's an equestrian term, just in case you were going there). Seriously, as Hoosier alluded to, that's the first run that's depicted that scenario. I'm more interested in around day 7, where it's been hinting at something for a couple of runs.

Maybe I should start a "Millennia Banter and Complaint" thread.

The models when there's an impending pattern change

FYP

Lake Michigan will be lapping at your door

The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.

Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change: "WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."

You're right. I forgot about that. I was only looking at November. So if they're at 8.4", double digits by the end of the month is a no-brainer.

When there are only nine and a half hours of daylight, the odds are already against us for daytime snow.

FWA is off to a good start with 6.9". They should be comfortably into double figures by the end of the month, especially since it appears that whoever is measuring is liberal, as I am nearby and only have recorded 4.2", and I clear the board every six hours and when the snow ends, per protocol. It surprised me that ORD is sitting at only 3.7". It's unusual for Chicago to be behind us, but things will even out as time goes by.

I haven't read into it, but anecdotally, Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels may just be fluctuating more wildly than in the past. For example, it was less than seven years ago (around January, 2013) Michigan/Huron hit their lowest level on record.

The Let's Talk Winter thread should have something to say about the weekend system.

It looks like Indystorm's old stomping grounds was ground zero for the Indiana portion of the storm/LES. That area was still stacking after those reports. ...ELKHART COUNTY... 1 SW GOSHEN 13.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.57N/85.85W ELKHART 12.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.69N/85.97W 3 WSW GOSHEN 10.6 IN 0700 AM 11/12 41.56N/85.89W

Yeah, in mid-winter, a 2" snow would not warrant an Advisory. However, our NWS office has made it clear that they will always issue a WWA with the first snow that sticks to roads every due to the amnesia that drivers seem to experience every year.

I wouldn't be too concerned temp-wise. FWA went from 40° to 30° like it saw a state trooper this morning.

My daughter is supposed to drive from FWA to SBN tomorrow for business. After seeing the HRRR I told her proclaim trip cancel.

That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else.

Bone chilling, record-breaking cold in early November with bare ground. It's gonna be a long winter....

I did something similar, but used Nov. 15th as the cutoff. After I did that, I thought to myself that the end of November would have been a better cutoff.

You keep repeating yourself. Keep it up for about 4 more months.

I wouldn't mind saving a little daylight for ohhh....let's see...early-mid December when it gets dark at 5:00 EST in Eastern Indiana?! But that's an argument for another thread.

Your comment prodded me to search for that answer. I used ORD from 1958-2018 since it is the hub of the subforum. I used the criteria of more than 1" of snow at ORD through Nov. 15th and the resulting winter totals. It looks to me like there is little correlation, but judge for yourself from these numbers. 1967 - 6.7" - 28.4" 1989 - 6.6" - 33.8" 1959 - 6.3" - 50.9" 2018 - 2.1" - 49.5" 1995 - 1.9" - 23.9" 1976 - 1.8" - 24.7" 2014 - 1.5" - 50.7" 1971 - 1.1" - 36.9" However, if the cutoff is Nov. 5th, then there are only three years with more than an inch of snow: 1967, 1989, and 1976. A small sample size, but those years were less than stellar.