IWXwx
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Everything posted by IWXwx
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If the current temp forecast is correct (62°), FWA will break its old record of 60° set in 2016. The three highest temps ever recorded on 12/26 have occurred in the past five years: 2019, 2016, and 2015 (54°). Speaking of 12/26, Happy Boxing Day.
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Definitely overachieving out this way. We are forecast to hit 55°. Already 56° with full sun. This ties for second on Christmas day which will easily be broken as we might touch 60°. No way of getting the all-time record, as it stands at 64° in 1982.
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Merry Christmas to you. We do have some travel woes in this area as dense fog has hung out since early this morning and doesn't look to break until late tomorrow morning.
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The models when there's an impending pattern change
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My point-n-click shows 50° for a high from Christmas Eve through Friday. We are seriously grilling out for the kids and grand kids on Christmas.
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FYP
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NWSChat was down for several hours this morning. Maybe the same server problem?
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I also got another 1.1" last night for a total of 3.1". Chump change.
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I'm glad you got hit. I got 2" overnight last night and have been left high and dry today/tonight. Last minute south shift got the best of me here.
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Lake Michigan will be lapping at your door
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Had reports of thundersnow south of IND
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The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.
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Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change: "WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."
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You're right. I forgot about that. I was only looking at November. So if they're at 8.4", double digits by the end of the month is a no-brainer.
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When there are only nine and a half hours of daylight, the odds are already against us for daytime snow.
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FWA is off to a good start with 6.9". They should be comfortably into double figures by the end of the month, especially since it appears that whoever is measuring is liberal, as I am nearby and only have recorded 4.2", and I clear the board every six hours and when the snow ends, per protocol. It surprised me that ORD is sitting at only 3.7". It's unusual for Chicago to be behind us, but things will even out as time goes by.
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FWA ended with a -5.4° departure for November and exactly normal (52.8) for the autumn months.
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I haven't read into it, but anecdotally, Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels may just be fluctuating more wildly than in the past. For example, it was less than seven years ago (around January, 2013) Michigan/Huron hit their lowest level on record.
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I pulled this map from the CoCoRaHS site. Although it shows the mean rather than the average, you can see what you described concerning the Gulf's influence. Precip really drops off as you head Northwest.
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The weather isn't bothering the birds at all bo. You try to keep the feeders full all winter?
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+1
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Ended with 0.8" on the ol' snow board. It was my favorite, large flakes and not much wind made for about 3 hours of winter wonderland, although I-69 was telling I-65, "Hold my beer."
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Just started snowing lightly here, but GIANT dendrites are quickly making everything white.
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Somewhere in East Central IN and Central/NW OH is going to score later this afternoon.
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The Let's Talk Winter thread should have something to say about the weekend system.
