IWXwx

Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change: "WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."

The Let's Talk Winter thread should have something to say about the weekend system.

Yeah, in mid-winter, a 2" snow would not warrant an Advisory. However, our NWS office has made it clear that they will always issue a WWA with the first snow that sticks to roads every due to the amnesia that drivers seem to experience every year.

I wouldn't be too concerned temp-wise. FWA went from 40° to 30° like it saw a state trooper this morning.

That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else.

I did something similar, but used Nov. 15th as the cutoff. After I did that, I thought to myself that the end of November would have been a better cutoff.

You keep repeating yourself. Keep it up for about 4 more months.

Your comment prodded me to search for that answer. I used ORD from 1958-2018 since it is the hub of the subforum. I used the criteria of more than 1" of snow at ORD through Nov. 15th and the resulting winter totals. It looks to me like there is little correlation, but judge for yourself from these numbers. 1967 - 6.7" - 28.4" 1989 - 6.6" - 33.8" 1959 - 6.3" - 50.9" 2018 - 2.1" - 49.5" 1995 - 1.9" - 23.9" 1976 - 1.8" - 24.7" 2014 - 1.5" - 50.7" 1971 - 1.1" - 36.9" However, if the cutoff is Nov. 5th, then there are only three years with more than an inch of snow: 1967, 1989, and 1976. A small sample size, but those years were less than stellar.

You beat me to it. I just popped in to post that. Makes sense and looks interesting for the subforum.

Good to see everyone back and ready for winter. The gut says wild, but I don't know how wet. Buckeye, did your daughter graduate? Hopefully you won't have to go back to the hellhole that is Marion, IN. Caveat: The campus is very nice.

It's too bad they can't issue polygon warnings like they do for severe weather. After all, why treat winter weather differently? It may not be needed for synoptic snows, but LES is often so geographically specific, it would be warranted. EDIT: I just saw OHweather recommend the same thing in his last sentence. It only makes sense.

A similar situation happened at Benton Harbor is SW MI. They stayed clear and hit -15°. That temp was verified by IWX. Surrounding stations didn't bottom out due to cloud cover.

We have an ordinance that all new mobile homes and modular (prebuilt) homes must have SAME radios installed. However, I suspect that a majority of people never turn them on or turn them off after the first time they hear the "annoying" warning tone.

In 2003, a funnel cloud was spotted north of Hartford City, IN. I was on the south side of town and headed north to try try to intercept the storm as a part of Skywarn/EMA. As I drove through town, not just a few, but dozens and dozens of people were standing outside along the street and on their porches trying to catch a glimpse of the the funnel as the sirens were blaring. The sirens are supposed to warn people to take cover. Instead, I felt like I was in a parade with all of people along the street. We work very hard to save lives and protect property, but sometimes it gets frustrating.

I am currently showing 27 tornado warnings on my GR. Wow.