IWXwx

FWA is sitting at -10.3° for November going into today. Even with the next few days being predicted to be near normal, we could still end the month with a respectable negative departure.

It looks like Indystorm's old stomping grounds was ground zero for the Indiana portion of the storm/LES. That area was still stacking after those reports. ...ELKHART COUNTY... 1 SW GOSHEN 13.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.57N/85.85W ELKHART 12.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.69N/85.97W 3 WSW GOSHEN 10.6 IN 0700 AM 11/12 41.56N/85.89W

Yeah, in mid-winter, a 2" snow would not warrant an Advisory. However, our NWS office has made it clear that they will always issue a WWA with the first snow that sticks to roads every due to the amnesia that drivers seem to experience every year.

I wouldn't be too concerned temp-wise. FWA went from 40° to 30° like it saw a state trooper this morning.

My daughter is supposed to drive from FWA to SBN tomorrow for business. After seeing the HRRR I told her proclaim trip cancel.

That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else.

Bone chilling, record-breaking cold in early November with bare ground. It's gonna be a long winter....

I did something similar, but used Nov. 15th as the cutoff. After I did that, I thought to myself that the end of November would have been a better cutoff.

You keep repeating yourself. Keep it up for about 4 more months.

Forecasters are biting on the serious cold early next week. The point-n-clicks around here are already bumping up against some long-standing min. maxes and low records. They could also being fudging toward climo at this range, so going even lower is possible. We're talking temps that are colder than the lowest averages in January. We better get some snow out of this or I'll personally be lighting up the complaint thread.

First hard freeze here last night, bottoming out 24°. Growing season is done.

I wouldn't mind saving a little daylight for ohhh....let's see...early-mid December when it gets dark at 5:00 EST in Eastern Indiana?! But that's an argument for another thread.

Your comment prodded me to search for that answer. I used ORD from 1958-2018 since it is the hub of the subforum. I used the criteria of more than 1" of snow at ORD through Nov. 15th and the resulting winter totals. It looks to me like there is little correlation, but judge for yourself from these numbers. 1967 - 6.7" - 28.4" 1989 - 6.6" - 33.8" 1959 - 6.3" - 50.9" 2018 - 2.1" - 49.5" 1995 - 1.9" - 23.9" 1976 - 1.8" - 24.7" 2014 - 1.5" - 50.7" 1971 - 1.1" - 36.9" However, if the cutoff is Nov. 5th, then there are only three years with more than an inch of snow: 1967, 1989, and 1976. A small sample size, but those years were less than stellar.

I hope ensemble member No 5 of the GEFS is not a precursor to winter in Indiana this year

I also have that reputation. I know just enough about the weather to be dangerous. There is not much seriousness in my DNA. I really am sorry to call you out on something that in fact had a different meaning. What is really a coincidence is that I used to call my oldest daughter (she's an adult now) piglet, because she loves pigs.

Hey, no problem. I just happened to be doing some research on Greek language and that popped up. I had been reading and posting here earlier, so I already had your screen name in my head. I'm the one who should be apologizing. I had no idea that it also is a Hungarian word. I hope you will forgive me. I just assumed that it was an inside joke.

I'm liking this early potential. It's usually a month from now before I get excited about tracking a storm. It also brings all of the knowledgeable posters out of the woodwork.

IWX has been beating the strong wind threat for several days. SPC isn't playing ball. These high shear low CAPE fall systems have had a history of producing some blow semis over winds.

You beat me to it. I just popped in to post that. Makes sense and looks interesting for the subforum.

Although I usually don't have much to complain about during fall, I figured we should have a place to banter. The IND discussion this afternoon had some sound scientific advice: SO, IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING... LISTEN TO YOUR MOM AND WEAR YOUR COAT.

Good to see everyone back and ready for winter. The gut says wild, but I don't know how wet. Buckeye, did your daughter graduate? Hopefully you won't have to go back to the hellhole that is Marion, IN. Caveat: The campus is very nice.

Looking forward to 'nado vid that Cyclone is gonna snag

Per IWX, it was a national blackout affecting all NWS services. Everything's been moved to backup and should be available now.

....and there it is, you beat me to it Joe. I just told my Director to expect some tornado warnings even though SPC doesn't have ANY threat in Marginal risk area.

Mike Ryan at IND mentions the concern of a rotating storm or two tomorrow afternoon in their CWA. However, although SPC mentions it, they keep the low threat much farther south. REMAIN A TOUCH CONCERNED ABOUT A THREAT FOR A FEW CELLS TO ROTATE WITH FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH PROFILES...INCREASED SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES...AND LCLS LIKELY TO SETTLE NEAR 1000FT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE DAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT...BUT CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS AND THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACK WHERE SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY.