IWXwx
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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential
IWXwx replied to Thundersnow12's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Waiting on the NAM's range to see if the ol' EE rule will be in effect. Yes, that was dragged out of the archives. I think that is what Hoosier was alluding to above. -
January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential
IWXwx replied to Thundersnow12's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
With the amount of moisture to work with and models QPF for central/southern IN, there will be some significant flooding. Cue JanetJanet -
It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics.
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Eh, hard to pick, as they are all high impact, but I personally would have had Morch at least second and bumped the two PVs down one notch.
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I'll ride it hard and put it away wet based on that map. lol (That's an equestrian term, just in case you were going there). Seriously, as Hoosier alluded to, that's the first run that's depicted that scenario. I'm more interested in around day 7, where it's been hinting at something for a couple of runs.
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Textbook
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Maybe I should start a "Millennia Banter and Complaint" thread.
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I was going to post that I'm looking forward to the last boomer of the year Sunday morning, but that secondary that the NAM is showing might well give up another clap of thunder Sunday night/early Monday morning.
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If the current temp forecast is correct (62°), FWA will break its old record of 60° set in 2016. The three highest temps ever recorded on 12/26 have occurred in the past five years: 2019, 2016, and 2015 (54°). Speaking of 12/26, Happy Boxing Day.
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Definitely overachieving out this way. We are forecast to hit 55°. Already 56° with full sun. This ties for second on Christmas day which will easily be broken as we might touch 60°. No way of getting the all-time record, as it stands at 64° in 1982.
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Merry Christmas to you. We do have some travel woes in this area as dense fog has hung out since early this morning and doesn't look to break until late tomorrow morning.
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The models when there's an impending pattern change
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My point-n-click shows 50° for a high from Christmas Eve through Friday. We are seriously grilling out for the kids and grand kids on Christmas.
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FYP
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NWSChat was down for several hours this morning. Maybe the same server problem?
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I also got another 1.1" last night for a total of 3.1". Chump change.
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I'm glad you got hit. I got 2" overnight last night and have been left high and dry today/tonight. Last minute south shift got the best of me here.
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Lake Michigan will be lapping at your door
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Had reports of thundersnow south of IND
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The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.
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Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change: "WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."
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You're right. I forgot about that. I was only looking at November. So if they're at 8.4", double digits by the end of the month is a no-brainer.
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When there are only nine and a half hours of daylight, the odds are already against us for daytime snow.
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FWA is off to a good start with 6.9". They should be comfortably into double figures by the end of the month, especially since it appears that whoever is measuring is liberal, as I am nearby and only have recorded 4.2", and I clear the board every six hours and when the snow ends, per protocol. It surprised me that ORD is sitting at only 3.7". It's unusual for Chicago to be behind us, but things will even out as time goes by.
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FWA ended with a -5.4° departure for November and exactly normal (52.8) for the autumn months.
