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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    You can avoid that by being insufferably whiny all the time like me. Beats the unpredictability of sudden mood changes.
  2. mitchnick
    Iow, classic Niña with February the worst month relatively speaking. But you can count on a cool/cold spring.
  3. mitchnick
    The seasonal 3-month forecasts are all that's available on the free site but pay sites have monthly forecasts.
  4. mitchnick
    Every SSTA map is different from the rest. Insane how much they vary and I suspect explains, in part, why long range model solutions vary early on in the forecast period with greater variations later in the forecast periods.
  5. mitchnick
    This is pretty much a broad brush from the Euro seasonal because it's NE US, but these monthly temp anomalies are not bad considering the last 10 years if close to being right.
  6. mitchnick
  7. mitchnick
    Some better images off WxBell posted in the MA forum.
  8. mitchnick
    I should have added, looks like overrunning threats for the NE, or snow to rain/mix.
  9. mitchnick
    Looks more like an abundance of LES with this slp mean imho.
  10. mitchnick
    Looking at the 5H map I posted, from my perspective, I see "relative" weakness around and off Japan along with stronger ridging in Alaska. Both are positive if you're hoping for at least periods of opportunities during the winter.
  11. mitchnick
    I wouldn't say it’s the same...more like similar.
  12. mitchnick
    5H Dec-Feb Euro
  13. mitchnick
    And DEC-FEB is +.5-1C. Very workable with normal precip it is also predicting. Monthly forecast indicates January very close to normal with February, like most Niñas, the most AN.
  14. mitchnick

    Winter 2025-26

    mitchnick replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Updated Euro seasonal for August just out off free site. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  15. mitchnick
    August Euro seasonal just out off free site fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  16. mitchnick
    Last 4 or 5 days the daily PDO rose from -3.5 to -2.73 on the World Climate Service site, so it's too early to get too concerned for this winter.
  17. mitchnick
    My date of birth.
  18. mitchnick
    Better here than northern and central Canada.
  19. mitchnick
    Glad I don't live in Japan.
  20. mitchnick
    New Cansips run looks very similar to last couple months with normal to BN 40N into Canada fwiw. Pretty consistent ridging over/near Alaska and poleward with SE ridging around until February.
  21. mitchnick
    I hope you're right. I just don't get the excitement over hurricanes and their destructive power.
  22. mitchnick
    There was no consensus last year with a noticeable disparity between the Cansips and Euro for example. But since seasonal modeling runs vary from 4×/day with the Cfs2 and monthly forecasts from others, it's a moving target depending on which forecast you're using.
  23. mitchnick
    Eps showing a relaxation of the trades at 850 coming soon and Cfs2 agrees.
  24. mitchnick
    And most modeling had it above normal in the East/NE at this point and both Don Sutherland and Bluewave were pointing out how the Euro, which had an extensive area AN, was too cool the winter or 2 before. A quick search found this, but I believe it was August's forecast where Don and Bluewave were posting that point.
  25. mitchnick
    Cfs2 has been liking this look for August and September fwiw. Here's August: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025071806&fh=1 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025071806&fh=1
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