mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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No maps for the 2-5" event?
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Bliz get at it. Sounds like Euro has 2 events thru day 10.
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Post more often! Lol
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Euro finally has ice for Thursday morning.
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Euro will have none of it. I think it'll cave as too many other models are dropping some snow now.
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Fixed
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Ukie for Wednesday
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Ukie likes far N MD folks and PA hicks for Wednesday.
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Unless I'm seeing things, but it looks like the Gfs and Canadian are moving, or trying to move, the SER from the traditional and former location off the SE coast to a flat ridge over the SE U.S. We'll see if that trend continues and how it may change forecasts, if at all.
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I wonder what he means by cabbage hole...
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https://x.com/webberweather/status/1886063442882425254?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1886063442882425254|twgr^0bb5e4f76ac6697896ee49a8fa94161e93bae66a|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1886063442882425254%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA
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Warms fast on Thursday morning fortunately.
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Icon Thursday morning. Ughh ice
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Icon still likes Wednesday
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I don't take it as a bad sign at this range at all for the reasons you stated and in light of operationals and ensembles.
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AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week.
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In addition to maintaining the SSW on the 6z run, now at 300hrs, Gfs has a 2nd hit to what's left of the vortex at the end of its run. Follow-up hits like this are classic to consequential SSW events. Difficult not to get excited for the next 6, maybe even 8, weeks.
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If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one.
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Interestingly, 6z Gfs has the SSW around 300 hrs as prior runs with a second hit now showing up at the end of the run. That's some classic stuff right there.
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Not staying up for the Euro. No way it could come close the Gfs short of a miracle.
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SER destroyed in 1 run.
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Snow derecho
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5h map looks like an arrow.
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Since when are you the only one entitled to complain about model runs? Lol
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500mb low centered over Hudson Bay. Same place it was sitting in 2/79, and we know what happened on the 17th that month.
