mitchnick

The Atlantic looks less likely to support a strong ridge unless things change.

What's really encouraging to me is how temps cool as we get closer to the forecast period. For example, last Tuesday's Euro weeklies' forecast for the week starting 9/1 is on top and yesterday's is on the bottom. This isn't the first time. As I showed earlier in this thread, the week of 8/25 progressively got colder as we got closer.

No. First, the 136 are readings from different locations and elevations than MDT with a period that includes very rural times. My family used to drive from MD to Wilkes-Barre every summer in the mid and late 1960's, driving through Harrisburg to get there, and it looks nothing like it did then. I can only imagine how much more rural it was before the 1960's. Second, my original post said MDT would likely end up slightly AN under the current climate period for June-August, and it will. I wasn't pushing any notions. Finally, using your argument, why not go back further, say hundreds of thousands of years, that clearly show we were much warmer? Current climate number, imho, are a better way to fairly represent above and below normal temps, all things considered, and apparently the NWS has felt the same way long before issues of warming were ever discussed.

Different locations over a 138 year period is far from a fair comparison. It was literally a different old around Harrisburg 20 years+ ago, let alone 138 years. This reminds me of an old friend of mine. When we were in college and I used to go out "carousing" looking for women, he would always remind me that "if a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them." That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determine temp anomalies. Why don't we go back further then and use ice core samples? We look pretty cool to me based on times further back. But you'll have your reasons I'm sure. I've made my point, so anything further is unnecessary.

MDT's summer records start in 1992. That means, including this year, there are 34 years of summer records. Assuming your calculation is correct, a "top 20th warmth" is just like saying the 14th coolest. So why didn't you say it like that? I think you made my point.

I am using current climate numbers to determine above or below normal just as previous NWS records established above or below normal readings. That's their protocol. If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine. But don't be shocked or appalled when someone else points out that's what you're doing. Like it or not, the numbers I posted for MDT are what will be used by the NWS.

Right. And those ups and downs during the month create the average. Considering the ridge location this summer to Harrisburg, those numbers are no big deal for June and July and August will negate much of the AN anomalies. I don't know what Phl had since it's not mby.

Dude, I understand numbers. All you can do is doubledown on the agenda. At least you don't deny it.

MDT was -1.6 for August thru yesterday. Should end up decently BN in light of the current pattern.

Not here. And who says I can't go by climate normals? People who push an agenda maybe?

Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.

I posted a few weeks ago when this cold snap started showing up on the ensembles that I believe late summer/early fall cold snaps are indicative of a better chance of colder winters. I think I said it wasn't a guarantee, but that colder winters often feature them. Time will obviously tell what happens, but it's at least a reason to remain optimistic at this point if you prefer cold/snowy. September's updated monthly forecasts "should" start to hone in one way or the other.

You don't change your underwear every day?

Keep in mind that those probability maps don't predict actual temps, just the likelihood of above or below normal. The Euro weeklies, of course, do...for what they're worth since they change every day. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202508230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509010000

Cyclonicwx.com offers a 30 day change map fwiw.

That 500mb anomaly map looks like the latest Euro seasonal.

The last forecast for the week of 8/25 off the weeklies and it turned out to be the coldest forecast of all!

Here's another great one. Incredible camera resolution. If you're on your phone, be sure to turn it horizontally for a full screen view. https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

There's the pro version and weenie version right there! Lol

Assuming it is, they're never exactly the same and small variations can make a big difference with the final results.

Lots of NC live cams at this link. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/

As previously mentioned, it will likely not technically reach a Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthly SSTA of -.5C at ENSO 3.4), but other measurements like MEI and RONI likely will. So it shouldn't be overwhelming.

An update from yesterday's run for week of 8/25 fwiw.

It's whatever Joe Bastardi says it is! @snowman19

I know some memorable winters were on the heels of decent ACE numbers, but I thought I read somewhere, could've been on this Board, high ACE numbers are no guarantee for a decent east coast winter either. From what little I've paid attention to hurricane activity as a clue to east coast winters, it seems a large number of recurves was a better indicator if you're looking for a decent east coast winter. Is that right? Anyone?