mitchnick
-
Posts
26,958 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by mitchnick
-
I agreed the tropical activity was likely the cause. But to say with absolute certainty something will happen is what I question. And at what level of tropical activity is the tipping point? And what about the changing patterns? That's my point...it's not black or white.
-
I didn't make a forecast like you did. Lol You always speak in absolutes. That's the problem.
-
There's no guarantee of that. That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta.
-
Yeah, that's what's been missing for a while.
-
Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again.
-
At this point, I'd agree (not that it matters if I didn't lol.) North will be the place to be (as in you!), but my inland location down here should be worth at least a few front enders to mix. My old location just north of BWI was terrible for those type events, with changeovers always occurring ahead of schedule.
-
Early shot of BN temps always a good sign imho. Not because it guarantees a decent/cold winter, more because decent/cold winters often have late summer/early fall cool shots.
-
Looking at the 30 day change, you may be stuck with cool piss if you don't hurry.
-
You can avoid that by being insufferably whiny all the time like me. Beats the unpredictability of sudden mood changes.
-
Iow, classic Niña with February the worst month relatively speaking. But you can count on a cool/cold spring.
-
The seasonal 3-month forecasts are all that's available on the free site but pay sites have monthly forecasts.
-
Every SSTA map is different from the rest. Insane how much they vary and I suspect explains, in part, why long range model solutions vary early on in the forecast period with greater variations later in the forecast periods.
-
This is pretty much a broad brush from the Euro seasonal because it's NE US, but these monthly temp anomalies are not bad considering the last 10 years if close to being right.
-
-
Some better images off WxBell posted in the MA forum.
-
I should have added, looks like overrunning threats for the NE, or snow to rain/mix.
-
Looks more like an abundance of LES with this slp mean imho.
-
Looking at the 5H map I posted, from my perspective, I see "relative" weakness around and off Japan along with stronger ridging in Alaska. Both are positive if you're hoping for at least periods of opportunities during the winter.
-
I wouldn't say it’s the same...more like similar.
-
5H Dec-Feb Euro
-
And DEC-FEB is +.5-1C. Very workable with normal precip it is also predicting. Monthly forecast indicates January very close to normal with February, like most Niñas, the most AN.
-
Updated Euro seasonal for August just out off free site. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
-
August Euro seasonal just out off free site fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
-
Last 4 or 5 days the daily PDO rose from -3.5 to -2.73 on the World Climate Service site, so it's too early to get too concerned for this winter.
