mitchnick

There is support!

Only if you promise to never post climo data. Lol

The sacred "pattern" advertised by long range modeling for weeks has medium range modeling advertising the "fruits" of the pattern now within the medium range.

Crushes it instead of phasing. Carry on...nothing to see here. Lol

Fwiw, Canadian looks a bit more interesting with the 5th early on with the northern stream headed SE. How much it can pull the southern stream north tbd.

They got one a couple weeks before PDII.

Doubt it's right, but 0z Icon is entertaining if nothing else.

Nice to see the Gfs has our first Mecs/Hecs at the end of the 18z run.

Saw from NE thread they would probably be upgrading the resolution, but poster wasn't certain.

Anybody hear about this? It's a notice posted on Stormvista re the Euro.

And 3 days later, 850's are normal and surface temps down considerably following 850's back towards normal....all consistent with extended ensembles fwiw.

Probably is time to finally party with the Gefs. The good news is that 850 temps are normal and surface only a hair over on their way down. Time to buckle up and see what comes of it.

Gefs creeping precip/snow north as of 168hrs fwiw.

Explanation of why mid-late February-March has a shot. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59779-winter-202324-mediumlong-range-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=7185737

Doesn't scream snow, but does want to make me scream!

Actually, this started out as a threat on the Euro when it showed a traditional Carolina Crusher. If it is going to crush someone, I think it still favors the Carolinas.

Iow, we don't have a shot. Agreed. Lol

Nothing to get it north. 500mb has a closed low that's stuck keeping slp stalled in the SE until the NE gyre (thanks Larry Cosgrove) pulls out and lets it escape to the east.

Yep. From the start, but hopefully not to the finish. Not that I have anything against the people of Finland.

Odd 78/79-La Nada 77/78-weak Nino 95/96-weak Nina

I don't disagree completely, but in this case, the pattern represented by a -PDO does fit our pattern in the mean this winter.

I believe our nemesis this year has been the consistent -PDO. Just about every other strong Niño, if not all, had averaged a +PDO. In fact, those that were negative at the start of winter, switched to positive. It explains the reluctance of the trough to leave the SW and the consistent -PNA. I know the extended ensembles show a +PNA, but with the reluctance of the trough to migrate east, it hard for me to believe the PNA goes + as long as the -PDO is maintained.

Same time.

360hrs Eps, which puts us at 2/12 7pm. Little, if any, progress to my eyes. Surface map suggests a front is in the middle of the country with slp in or approaching the Lakes with AN surface and 850 temps the easter half of the US. Assuming these maps are correct, how many days before temps drop and we get a system? And we will need temps decently BN since we'll be around 3 weeks past lowest averages. These are not weenie whinings, but legit questions based on what the Eps is showing that I believe contradicts the picture painted by the Eps Extended the week starting 2/12 that came out yesterday. Again, assuming it is correct, after the 12th you'd need another several days at least for cold to become established along with a favorable storm track development putting you around the 17th-19th, assuming again you get a storm to develop and track. At the 19th, you are 10 days from March. My point? 2 weeks from today wasted ("yes", I've written off 2/5 as a snowstorm) and likely another week after that IF we're lucky and get a storm that develops and falls as snow. What's the definition of insanity again? Lol

Never done that before. Lol