mitchnick

Thanks Larry. I got thinking that the EPS didn't do so hot with last winter's forecast. Although I couldn't find a site that had the 1/24 EPS 5H forecast from July 2023, I did find one from September 2023 for 1/24-3/24. so keep a stiff upper lip! Lol

Well, I wouldn't say "we (or l) are making any mistakes at this point. I'm just looking at actual data, comparing it to model progs, and asking questions. The fact is, everyone relies on modeling for their Enso forecasts, so it's not unreasonable to see how well their forecasts from a few months ago did compared to reality, along with their trends. If you don't, one runs the risk of being hit by a big bag of wtf down the road.

What are you seeing to say a La Nada is "quickly becoming very unlikely?" New weekly Enso numbers show all areas have warmed over the past 4 weeks except for area 4 which has dropped only .3C 05JUN2024 23.1-0.5 26.5-0.3 27.9 0.1 29.6 0.8 12JUN2024 22.7-0.6 26.5-0.2 27.7 0.0 29.5 0.6 19JUN2024 22.1-0.9 26.4-0.1 27.9 0.3 29.4 0.5 26JUN2024 22.1-0.6 26.2-0.1 27.9 0.4 29.5 0.7 03JUL2024 22.4-0.0 26.1-0.1 27.8 0.3 29.3 0.5

If we consider subsurface anomalies, we're already there (warmer than -.5C) per attached and the warming trend has not been interrupted.

To say it's too warm is fine, but by how much is the real question. None of the models are going to be close to perfect this far out.

Thanks, but I'll probably by dead by 2030.

Honestly, hard to believe that +.5C - +1.5C over that relatively small area of the globe is running the show, but that's just me.

Wrt the east based, i was more referring to a hybrid where it is cooler in the easter Pac vs. western Pac (Enso 4.) My wag/hope is that could yield a similar result to the decent winters that had the more textbook east based.

I am not convinced it will play out like this yet. Models are trending with the Nina strength and location and MJO has been asleep for the past month with only minor signs of life in July. Where it ends up focusing remains undetermined thanks to holding its cards close to the vest so far. Sure, warmer western Pac seems favored at this point, but we don't yet see signs of conviction with it. Time will tell with it...maybe. I'm just going to keep an open mind for now since I'm not concerned about being first with a forecast nobody cares I'm making. Lol

So one possible scenario to consider is a warm western equatorial Pacific, east based or leaning east La Nada or weak Niña ONI, and -PDO. Almost too scared to look for analogs to that. Though warmers waters out west are usually good for east coast winters.

Be interesting to see what they found exactly and how old it is.

There have been so many upgrades/changes to the Euro suite, especially the addition of AI over the past year, I'm just not sure we can simply expect it to be too warm. And it's clearly a different model than it was in 2016. Whether it's better than before with recent upgrades, we'll soon find out. But I agree that a Niña background state with a La Nada ONI is a twist that will "possibly" take this out of a "cookie cutter" Niña winter forecast territory.

I see only 2 La Nada ONI winters after a strong or super Niño....66/67 & 92/93. Give me either of those winters imby. I actually remember snows in 2/67 too...yes, I'm old. Larry, feel free to check my work as I should just defer to you in the first place. Lol https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

I just checked the Euro site and the N-D-J forecast is out as well as the S-O-N forecast you posted. It's clearly a La Nada ONI.

Yeah, but my job is to look for silver linings! Seriously, the warmer the Niña ONI the better imho as a warmer equatorial Pacific will always increase chances for STJ interaction despite a Niña background state, and that can't be a bad thing over the winter as a whole. At least, that's the way I see it.

Thanks for your analysis. Always excellent. A couple of things cause me pause regarding the anticipated warm Enso forecast however. First, Euro never bit on a mod-strong Nina like just about all modeling was advertising and everything I've seen from other modeling is they are moving toward the Euro. Hence, the Euro raw numbers may deserve more weight this year despite other modeling. The second, and admittedly a real unknown, is that Euro model upgrades over the past year are using AI moreso than prior years. That "may" be a good reason to discount some of its old biases. We won't know for certain if it does until spring, but the fact that it has had the better forecast so far suggests maybe AI is making a difference already. Certainly some speculation on my part, but just some stuff that I'm considering giving me pause to expect the Euro is too warm with it ONI progs.

That map would constitute a La Nada with BN ssta only at -.2 to -.5, and it's not even Enso 3.4. That said, it's a fall map, so that's why I used the plumes that go into 2025.

What are you looking at to reach that conclusion? The new plumes look closer to a La Nada.

No doubt the atmosphere is in a Nina state, but the MJO forcing is weak as reflected in the RMM plot COD. But despite the Nina state, the ssta haven't responded as of yet as most modeling predicted. So the question in my mind is "why not?" My wag is the lack of a strong, coherent MJO to support it. With modeling weakening the strength of the Nina vs. earlier runs, that suggests to me MJO forcing remains weak through the fall into winter. If that's the case, how does that change the picture, if at all, for winter in the east? The rest of all this Niña, PDO, etc. talk means nothing to me if it has nothing to do with winter! That's as far as my scientific curiosity goes to be honest. Lol

Measley .12" this morning.

.2" yesterday with a rogue cluster headed for me now. Probably went thru Bubbler digs already.

Thanks Larry! But looking at the MJO progs this morning, you may want to wait because continued hibernation in the COD looks favored for most of July too.

Saying the Wheeler plots are noisy (which means something different to everyone) doesn't mean the MJO hasn't been stuck in the COD, because it has. Nothing to dispute there. Bluewave's map is a day 7 forecast that may or may not be right, and NOT actual VP anomalies. That said, to me, there's a bit of a disconnect between VP anomalies and the lack of an active MJO/-PDO as I would have thought we would be seeing action in 4-6 on RMM plots. Maybe that'll change, but it makes me wonder if something else is going on.

Rn+ imby now.

Down in Martinsburg WV seeing how the other half lives and I saw the best virga I've ever seen. Unfortunately, I was driving, so no pics. Then I drove through it and that was one of the most intense, compact T-storms I've driven through. This place reminds me of Hanover actually with its restaurants and shopping.