mitchnick

The 1 wild card out there is that there is a SSW occurring in a few days per attached graph. You can see how the mean 10mb zonal winds represented by the solid blue line dip below the thin gray line. That alone would be throwing a curve ball to modeling, but after a brief, weak recovery, the Eps take the mean winds back below the gray line from about 3/5 until 3/25. That's crazy. Since this is a mean ensemble forecast, the operationals likely don't have it figured into what they are spitting out every 6 or 12 hours. All that said, if course, it doesn't guarantee things like the cold end up on our side of the Pole or that the Pacific side cooperates. But it might explain some wild swings in modeling as well as bouts of cold and snow to come...maybe?

Yep. But as I posted about a month ago in the El Niño thread, sacrificing 1 more winter in an effort to cool the IO and western equatorial Pacific might be worth it for future winters. Of course at my age, looking forward to additional winters could be a grave mistake.

Couldn't you have just lied to me? Lol

Just looked at operational Gfs and it has the renewed warming starting in the 384hr panel, which would be reasonably consistent with Eps. EDIT: Geps has it too.

Have you ever seen an extended period like the one the Eps is showing for March? Can't say I really followed this stuff too much before this year so I have little reference or experience.

Anybody still watching the 10mb for SSW? Today EPS show it happening in a few days, recovering briefly, then switching direction again for an extended period. That's crazy.

My thinking was more to get rid of the warmth in the western Pac ex Japan. Look at the Cansips, for example. It's the only model that goes out to January, 2025 I believe. Look how the equatorial waters around and north of Australia, including the IO, have cooled vs now. Heck, even the Atlantic basin isn't that unusually warm on the whole. I certainly can't know if the Cansips is correct, but I think it's at least a start of a way out or enough cooling to make a difference.

Ha. If you're a snow weenie in the MA and were around to experience 3/73, there's no month any duller than that one. Lol

They have been doing well ever since 20/21. I don't think their climo is much more than mine, but they really have done well relatively speaking the last 4 winters.

Yep. I've got some flurries flying now.

I'll say this, despite the low total, it sure is a beautiful winter morning.

Looks like maybe 2". Yawner. And like everyone else, sidewalks and roads are clear.

You constantly say nasty shit to him and you know full well history. He is respectful with his posts and you are not. PERIOD!

I stand by what I said. Don't waste your time.

Payback for Tuesday's press south.

Starting to look like a cold front. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

Gotta hope these returns in WV make it over the mts and you're under them. They are healthy and could do the trick. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KRLX/standard

I say it because the Nams now look very close to what the Canadians have showed all day.

Psu going into his typical attack mode when his forecast looks to fail. Why he picks on Chuck is disturbing considering what I know he knows about him. Plus, though off the wall, Chuck has proved he knows his stuff.

Understandable

Looks like Canadian suite will end up being closer to reality this time.

18z Eps

It is. When you switch from operational models to ensembles, Pivotal automatically switches from snowfall to snow depth. My bad. Sorry.

I wonder if those thunderstorms down south are robing some energy/moisture. Just a thought. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-midwest-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Latest Sref