mitchnick

If I was back north of BWI, my thoughts would echo yours exactly. Although my move here has only really yielded one really good winter (20/21), the other ones were all much better than BWI, except for 21/22 because I completely missed Jan 3, 2022. I still go back down to the Balt area for various matters, and I just watch my car thermometer rise as I approach BWI and relive the pain of those winters. Lol Between elevation and being oh soooo close to the nirvanac (new word) 40N, it is a pleasant improvement. Funny thing is, most people around here hate snow as much as they do in Baltimore, so if I get talking about an impending storm, they think I'm nuts!

Nice. I never checked into getting an updated chimney. We have a brick chimney, but I'm sure they would have something to fit it. I didn't get the blower test because I figured I had everything sealed. Putting in the foam seals behind the electrical plates and childproof safety plugs on the outlets was one of the first things I did when we bought the place as I had done that back in my MD house. I'm surprised to hear about the roof warranty issue. I just had the insulators seal all the gaps in the attic floor with foam, whether electrical outlets, pipes, wire holes, ceiling joints, etc. before blowing in the insulation. It's not 6 or 8 inches of foam like the strictly foam insulators do. I'll have to check into an upgraded chimney flue. I know there's a wind damper on the flue pipe near the furnace itself, but there's probably more that can be done. Question then is how much. Honestly, my motivation is being cost effective as opposed to some misplaced noble cause. Lol

Last year's toaster still yielded almost 20" imby. The reason why I'm optimistic for this winter is that there's nothing on seasonal modeling that indicates there will be a shutout. There will be decent periods. Then it comes down to luck. Those same models are showing the warmth in Canada thru November, while still predicting a season with chances. Unless they all start busting badly on those months, I will remain positive.

Since fall officially starts the end of September, I think it's too early, which was my point for January through March period. I think your focus is on temps and mine is on snow. I don't care about temps. They don't concern me one iota. All I want is a season that gives me a few periods of favorable patterns. That's all it has ever been in the Mid Atlantic. The right pattern will generate the right temps just as January did last winter.

That and there was no wind last night. My house was built in the late 70's, so there's no Tyvek wrap. Even though I've replaced windows and doors as well as sealing and insulating the attic, wind can seap in through the walls. Plus, I have a chimney for the oil heat and that makes air infiltration easier by creating an exit. Not that fresh air in the house is a bad thing, but it does allow the house to cool quicker on windy days/nights than on calm.

No fog in the Borough, just crystal blue skies. No heat here yet. 69 on my first floor and 70 on the second.

No doubt December will be warm for most of the Conus, but I doubt September temps in and of itself, warm or cold, mean a hill of beans for January to March. The pattern will dictate by then imho.

47 at close Wunderground station.

The 3 long range models agree December will be warm. No argument there from me. Changes start in January, which would likely be on or after the 15th since the change to a more favorable pattern strikes me as gradual over the season. So barring a fluke or pure magic, I would roll the dice and say 1/15-2/25 is the my window for snow imby, peak climo basically. Different story in ENE & NE of course.

In light of the progged Easterly anomalies upon us now and current SSTA's, it's hard to buy the November spike in SSTA anomalies on this run attached. How that would change other forecasting parameters is anyone's guess.

Much better than September with December and January just below. Here's last month.

Here's a shocker. Euro NAO. Much better than last month's run, or should I say the last 14 years! Lol

BN February.

Old run. New one below. Cooler than last runs as winter progresses.

Fwiw, new Euro monthly out today is a bit cooler than last runs and has a similar progression thru the winter of cooling as Cfs2 and Cansips We're still AN for the months, but less than prior runs. December has the greatest AN anomalies solidly in the +1-2C while January is barely in the +1-2C meaning we're close to the +.5-1C, which is not too warm for seasonal snow. February drops to only +.5-1C. The good news is we are solidly in normal precip each month. With occasional cold intrusion that would be expected with those kind of temp anomalies and normal precip, a few decently timed short waves might get us to something closer to normal than recent years.

Link to today's Cfs2 monthly temps. Similar progression to Euro. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to Cansips starting December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024100500&fh=2

Lol you need to compare monthlies. September forecast doesn't include February, but the progression is cooler as the winter progresses just like Cfs2 and Cansips. September forecast for December and January on top and October forecast for December to February below.

New Euro monthly out on the free site. Dare I say that the probabilities maps are noticeably cooler than last runs and look similar to cooler areas shown on the Cfs2 and Cansips.

Breaking up nicely here with more sun than clouds.

I believe the Euro seasonal usually comes out on the 5th of the month, so I'm sure there will be the typical "me first" rush to post it by one of the usual suspects. Hint: If it's not JB to post it first, it's not cold/snowy!

Ughhh. So tired of the humidity. No ground fog here but it's a very low overcast. Closest Wunderground station says 62, which explains the lack of fog. At 53, I'd be in the soup.

Actually, it's been updated to upper 60's on Monday, mid 60's Tuesday and Wednesday, and lower 60's on Thursday!

Nws has me mid 60's during the day and mid 40's at night Monday-Wednesday. No complaints here. Guess I'll be burning some oil.

I remember it, but I saw nothing.

Should be some decent aurora action on the 6th. Northern folks having the best shot at seeing something. Still have never witnessed the northern lights. Maybe this time as this flare was strong and directed right at earth.