TheDreamTraveler

2018-2019 was absolutely insane. I still can't believe how much it rained. My parents lost so many trees due to how soft the soil was and that EF0 tornado we had in 2018 nearby

For sure. The adjustments west is something we've seen with so many storms in the past in this area. Would not be surprised if we see the same thing with this if it doesn't get its act together soon enough

Today's been really nice. Not having to have the AC on at all. Not really looking forward to the hotter temps next week. The following week after that looks a lot cooler but might be more rainy

Oof. That turned around quickly :/

I ate at the Enola one once and you're not kidding. It's pretty awful

I've always thought that was funny that meteorologists etc will just look at La Nina, active african monsoon and above average sea surface temperatures and just assume that's enough to form an active hurricane season. But the processes of the earth are way more varied and complicated than we understand which is evidenced by this current season. We actually didn't even discover the AMO until the late 80's or how it played a role in active/inactive phases. The name AMO wasn't even coined until 2000 lol. It's just kind of amazing how we're still slowly learning all of these intricacies

I didn't even know they were such a big problem until my dad told me to look closely at one of the trees a few weeks back. They blended in with the bark so well and covered it. I had no idea. Also apparently a lot of them like to hang out in the upper parts of the trees in the summer so you're less likely to notice them until Fall where they progress further down the trunk. Like I knew they were becoming an issue but I didn't know it was this bad. I remember seeing the nymphs crawling around a few years ago and trying to figure out what they were.

Holy shit the spotted lantern flies are starting to get really bad around here. They were covering one of my parents trees. My dad made something to make them stick to and there were maybe a hundred or two of them stuck to it. These things are going to cause so much economic and environmental destruction and also just the beauty of the land. Oddly they seem to only prefer certain types of trees because not a single one would go near other types my parents have. I've already heard of people losing their trees and bushes in literally one season because of how bad these things have gotten. I saw comments on some videos that these things might have made it to other parts of the country including Los Angeles. This is gonna be bad if we can't figure out something soon. The whole country could end up losing hundreds of billions of dollars per year. I know in PA alone they said we could lose $20 billion from our economy if we don't figure something out fast

I think we can't use typical volcanic eruptions for comparisons because Tonga did not eject much ash into the stratosphere. It mainly ejected water vapor at an unprecedented level that we've never seen before. Water vapor would have different effects globally than ash etc. I'm just glad more people are starting to look at this type of data, it's better than nothing. Volcanic eruptions have been known to displace the ITCZ in the northern hemisphere before but like I said that was with ash filled eruptions and not water vapor. We really don't have many analogs for Tonga's type of eruption

Don't worry guys the Gulf and Caribbean will save us!

From the way some people were talking in here a few days ago you'd think we were having an above normal hurricane season right now. But with Earl under performing immensely and nothing on the models into the heart of the season with more hostile conditions I really don't think things are going to change. People were acting like having Earl and Danielle meant that this inactive season was over, but that's not the case. I'm sure we'll get a few more storms but even Earl and Danielle couldn't max out what they were forecast to do strength wise. Once Earl is gone things are going to be dead yet again for a while

I really would not say a storm in the high latitudes and a storm struggling to form at all with nothing else in sight in the deep tropics is 'the switch has already flipped'. We're almost at peak season, you will always get at least a storm or two at this point regardless of overall conditions. The fact that everything is falling apart and struggling to develop in the tropics doesn't make me believe the switch flipped yet. Earl won't even find good conditions to get stronger until it's farther away from the tropics...

So I was doing more research into the Tonga volcanic eruption and apparently it sent 10% of the entirety of the stratospheres water vapor directly into the stratosphere all at once. There was a recent study done that says this will impact the earth's climate patterns and will take 5 years to fully dissipate. I would not be at all surprised if what's happening in the atlantic is related to this, especially since literally nobody can fully figure out what's happening. We know there's anticyclonic wave breaking which is causing the warm temperatures northward which is limiting instability in the tropics but that's still not the full picture yet. Even some of the best meteorologists I know of are stumped on the full answer to what's happening but the Tonga volcano may actually be a key player. It's been 9 months now since it erupted and we've never seen anything like this put so much water vapor into the stratosphere https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming

The more hilarious thing is the ECMWF is STILL calling for an active season for the next month despite the current conditions happening. It's very weird. It's our best model and it forecast one of the most active atlantic hurricane seasons on record and despite the fact it's turned into one of the quietest in decades it still refuses to acknowledge that it hasn't been active. It's really weird honestly

Took a look and this has been the quietest start to any hurricane season since 1994 which only had 3 named storms up until this point. Since the active phase of the Atlantic started in 1995 no season has ever been as quiet as this one this late. Now if you want to also include Depressions then this has been the quietest season since 1992. Both of those seasons were before the inactive phase switched to the current active phase. Honestly we should be getting close to entering a new inactive phase soon since those normally only last 20-30 years on average and so far we've been in the current active phase for 27 years

I've been keeping an eye on the potential hurricane the GFS and ECMWF is showing and that definitely could throw a wrench into things considering how close it gets to the coast. But that's if it even survives the trek which imo looks like it should enter more favorable conditions closer to the east coast. I know there were a few runs that showed it awfully close to Florida and another showing it actually landfalling in the Carolinas from both the GFS/Euro but those were just 1 offs so far since it's way too early to tell where this goes. I'm just excited there's something to potentially track in the atlantic finally lmao

Funny thing I just noticed is even the awfully quiet and unexciting season of 2013 had more storms form by now than we do currently lol. I can't believe we've almost gone 60 days without a named storm and it's almost september 1st. Literally all the storms this year so far formed in June or the first few days of July

I was curious what global effects Tonga might have but I'm wondering if there's any real noticeable effects we'll be able to see since many said we wouldn't notice anything. Honestly maybe there is something to it potentially? There has never been a single La Nina year where we didn't get a named storm in August. The other 4 years were 3 El Nino years and 1 Neutral. So not only is this already rare but insanely rare since this is might be the first La Nina season ever recorded without a named August storm in history. The timing is definitely interesting considering we're at about the point now since eruption where the lag period goes away and you start seeing more noticeable effects from a volcanic eruption. If any of you remember Mount Pinatubo in 1991 it took almost a year for any of its global effects to start becoming noticeable. 2 years after that eruption gave my town the coldest temperature ever recorded in its history during the peak of the effects in 1993, we also coincidentally had the Storm of the Century which some scientists argue was influenced by the effects of the Pinatubo eruption. Thing is Tonga isn't Pinatubo so I wouldn't expect it to have very strong effects globally imo

Just got issued a special weather statement here. The storms that were coming towards me were falling apart but then right before it got here a small cell formed. Getting some nice thunder and lightning right now. This might be some of the best thunder and lightning I've had all year lol

That's actually extremely interesting. If we don't get a named storm by the 31st that would make it even more of an extreme oddity considering this is a La Nina year. Also I went and checked and 1961 was a neutral year. So if it happens then 2022 would be the first time during a La Nina year

I mean to be fair on average we usually only have maybe 2 or 3 named storms by this point. So this isn't too weird. It'll be odd if barely anything forms once we hit September. That's why I never get myself hyped up with forecasts for an active season because there's so many variables that can change and I'd rather look at what's happening a week down the line rather than what could happen months down the line. We also can't expect every year to be like 2020 and 2021, eventually the Atlantic has to take a break from all that record activity and recharge.

Oof I don't want that. I just want us to have a more normal fall for once. Having it be in the 60's and 70's at nighttime in the first half of October sucks. Especially after how hot this summers been I just want some nice cool fall temps, not too hot not too cold

The way I see it is it gives everyone more time to do stuff in the evenings outside when it's warmer out or during warm days in late fall/winter. But I can see why some might not prefer it. Like imagine it's december and we get a really nice 70 degree day but the sun sets at 4 pm. But with this the sun would be setting an hour later thus giving you an hour extra of time in the peak of the warmth. That's just my take on it lol

It's pretty interesting seeing that much rain fall there. I went to Phoenix when I was 14 once and we went there when it was during monsoon season so it rained a few days there. I still thought the heat there was overrated compared to a hot and humid day in central PA though lol

JB has sadly let social media rot his brain inside out. It sucks because I followed him to Weatherbell and loved his stuff and even paid for it. It's just sad seeing the changes to him over the years :/