TheDreamTraveler

Third cat 5 of the season. Absolutely insane.

She's gonna be a beaut. I really can't believe we're watching the worst case scenario for Jamaica play out before our eyes. Especially a country that has avoided very many destructive hurricanes in the past but that luck as finally run out sadly. Like even if Melissa was moving normally this would still be one for the history books but given the slow speed, angle of approach and absolute monster strength it's going to be something that they may never see again for hundreds of years. I really do not think many know what's truly coming.

I'm glad the GFS is starting to get some sense with Melissa finally but holy shit what is the UKMET still doing lmao it's been doing this for days now when it's usually one of the best performing models. Just wild we've had the UKMET and GFS performing so poorly for so long with this storm.

I know everyone's forgotten this storm but it's reminding me of hurricane Tomas for some odd reason. Not sure why but I do know it was predicted to become a powerful major hurricane once it entered the Caribbean and people were very bullish on it. It struggled immensely and was still a tropical storm where it was predicted to become a major lol. Definitely one of the worst intensity forecasts I've ever seen from the NHC. Not saying Melissa is going to under perform but we are in the Caribbean 'graveyard' after all. Normally storms that enter the eastern Caribbean struggle to develop at all unless they are well established before entering. Also NHC's intensity forecasts are a lot better now than compared to 15 years ago but it is still the hardest part to forecast in a hurricane.

Another thing to keep in mind too is late October is the only real window for these hybrid storms to form with the perfect conditions. The only two storms we have recorded Sandy and The Perfect Storm in 1991 both happened at the very end of October. So it's interesting given the time period we're in and that the overall setup is very similar. Maybe once the GFS stops being absolutely useless and figures things out we'll have a clearer picture of what will happen. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Actually amazing how useless the GFS has been for this storm lol

Actually can't believe we have another category 5. And in the same place Erin was. The amount of cat 5's we've had since 2016 has been mind boggling. I think we might just be normalized to it now but having cat 5's in this part of the atlantic is insane. We went from 2007 to 2016 with ZERO cat 5's. Then 2016 to 2025 with...12 cat 5's lol

Interesting detailed thread about how humid it was this summer across some of the states. I mean I could just tell even without anyone telling me how humid it was this year lol https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1966133621145612602

I wouldn't say there's a specific time frame within October but that is when the second peak happens. Will depend on how everything sets up when/if it happens.

Yep I used to love Bastardi and watched him a lot in the late 2000s and early 2010's. I legitimately think social media and politics rotted his brain

Bastardi making the daring prediction that 'the season isn't over' when it's not even September 10th yet lol

Actually insane seeing the GFS just dropping that storm suddenly after showing it consistently for so long lmao Are we just going to have a backloaded season again like last year? Kinda crazy how quiet it's been when we're basically in the peak of season.

So a few weeks ago I was complaining about how I thought this being the most humid summer I can possibly remember. Well I came across this article from a few days ago basically detailing that a lot of states have had their most humid summer ever recorded with dew points 6 degrees higher than the 1951-2020 average. That's actually insane. https://www.wtnh.com/news/national/feel-sticky-this-summer-its-been-record-muggy-in-the-northeast/ "More than 70 million Americans sweated through the muggiest first two months of summer on record Parts of 27 states and Washington, D.C., had a record amount of days that meteorologists call uncomfortable — with average daily dew points of 65 degrees Fahrenheit or higher — in June and July, according to data derived from the Copernicus Climate Service. And that’s just the daily average. In much of the East, the mugginess kept rising to near tropical levels for a few humid hours. Philadelphia had 29 days, Washington had 27 days and Baltimore had 24 days where the highest dew point simmered to at least 75 degrees, which even the the weather service office in Tampa calls oppressive, according to weather service data. The summer of 2025 so far has had dew points that average at least 6 degrees higher than the 1951-2020 normals in Washington, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Columbus and St. Louis, the AP calculations show. The average June and July humidity for the entire country east of the Rockies rose to more than 66 degrees, higher than any year since measurements started in 1950. The area east of the Rockies has on average gained about 2.5 degrees in summer dew point since 1950, the AP analysis of Copernicus data shows. In the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and part of the 1990s, the eastern half of the country had an average dew point in the low 60s"

Past few nights have been so nice. I wish summer had more days like that. I remember many nights like these as a kid in the 90's but I swear it's just unbearably hot and humid most nights now. My parents didn't have AC upstairs as a kid so we always slept with the house fan or downstairs depending on how hot it was.

They're not saying that we're going to get massive hurricanes just that the models are showing an active signal coming up which usually means we'll see some storms form somewhere. The models showing so many consistently big hurricanes is a good sign we're about to enter an active period for a bit.

Nasty dew point at 74. I really can't remember a summer that's been this humid this much. I haven't looked at raw data but I swear I don't remember the dew being so bad for so long.

We go through this every year pretty much when it hits July/Early August people just start calling the season cancelled because for some reason they expect storms to form in June and July lol. Season doesn't truly start until middle/late August but I guess you can't get it through peoples dense heads no matter how many times you explain to them. I guess that's why people end up believing other stupid things no matter how much proof you show them. Once they are decided on something it's very hard to change their perspective.

The storms curved and angled slightly over. Been pouring heavily here now for a while. I thought we were gonna miss it too earlier

Besides Irene and Sandy in 2011/2012 the east coast really hasn't been hit by anything major. There was the scare with Florence which was forecast to come in as a category 3 or 4 but then weakened dramatically before landfall. Then there was Joaquin in 2015 that almost pulled another Sandy. Then Matthew and Dorian coming right up to the east coast of Florida but turning at the last second. So many close call examples that it's amazing none of them struck at full power.

Would be wild if we got a December system this year. 2020 and 2021 didn't even have that. Quite rare to have anything develop. Last time we had anything develop was a subtropical storm in December during 2013's season which was a very quiet year overall. You then have to go back to 2007, 2005, 2004 and 2003 for December systems.

Some rain anywhere in the eastern US would be nice. The US had its driest October since 1895 in some places. Hopefully this thing recurves north.

lol 12z GFS has that hurricane in the Caribbean bottoming out to 915mb on Nov 16th. Definitely seems like there's a signal for something to develop though but that's still 6 days or so before it shows anything actually developing.

12z GFS is pretty wild. Has at least 4 systems develop through the entire run and possibly a 5th storm lol

It's possible we get to our S named storm in the next week or two. Maybe the models really weren't wrong about this potentially being hyperactive. Obviously depends if all 3 areas develop but still.

And now the global operational 0z GFS just drops the hurricane in the Caribbean completely lol