TheDreamTraveler

From the way some people were talking in here a few days ago you'd think we were having an above normal hurricane season right now. But with Earl under performing immensely and nothing on the models into the heart of the season with more hostile conditions I really don't think things are going to change. People were acting like having Earl and Danielle meant that this inactive season was over, but that's not the case. I'm sure we'll get a few more storms but even Earl and Danielle couldn't max out what they were forecast to do strength wise. Once Earl is gone things are going to be dead yet again for a while

I really would not say a storm in the high latitudes and a storm struggling to form at all with nothing else in sight in the deep tropics is 'the switch has already flipped'. We're almost at peak season, you will always get at least a storm or two at this point regardless of overall conditions. The fact that everything is falling apart and struggling to develop in the tropics doesn't make me believe the switch flipped yet. Earl won't even find good conditions to get stronger until it's farther away from the tropics...

So I was doing more research into the Tonga volcanic eruption and apparently it sent 10% of the entirety of the stratospheres water vapor directly into the stratosphere all at once. There was a recent study done that says this will impact the earth's climate patterns and will take 5 years to fully dissipate. I would not be at all surprised if what's happening in the atlantic is related to this, especially since literally nobody can fully figure out what's happening. We know there's anticyclonic wave breaking which is causing the warm temperatures northward which is limiting instability in the tropics but that's still not the full picture yet. Even some of the best meteorologists I know of are stumped on the full answer to what's happening but the Tonga volcano may actually be a key player. It's been 9 months now since it erupted and we've never seen anything like this put so much water vapor into the stratosphere https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming

The more hilarious thing is the ECMWF is STILL calling for an active season for the next month despite the current conditions happening. It's very weird. It's our best model and it forecast one of the most active atlantic hurricane seasons on record and despite the fact it's turned into one of the quietest in decades it still refuses to acknowledge that it hasn't been active. It's really weird honestly

Took a look and this has been the quietest start to any hurricane season since 1994 which only had 3 named storms up until this point. Since the active phase of the Atlantic started in 1995 no season has ever been as quiet as this one this late. Now if you want to also include Depressions then this has been the quietest season since 1992. Both of those seasons were before the inactive phase switched to the current active phase. Honestly we should be getting close to entering a new inactive phase soon since those normally only last 20-30 years on average and so far we've been in the current active phase for 27 years

I've been keeping an eye on the potential hurricane the GFS and ECMWF is showing and that definitely could throw a wrench into things considering how close it gets to the coast. But that's if it even survives the trek which imo looks like it should enter more favorable conditions closer to the east coast. I know there were a few runs that showed it awfully close to Florida and another showing it actually landfalling in the Carolinas from both the GFS/Euro but those were just 1 offs so far since it's way too early to tell where this goes. I'm just excited there's something to potentially track in the atlantic finally lmao

Funny thing I just noticed is even the awfully quiet and unexciting season of 2013 had more storms form by now than we do currently lol. I can't believe we've almost gone 60 days without a named storm and it's almost september 1st. Literally all the storms this year so far formed in June or the first few days of July

I was curious what global effects Tonga might have but I'm wondering if there's any real noticeable effects we'll be able to see since many said we wouldn't notice anything. Honestly maybe there is something to it potentially? There has never been a single La Nina year where we didn't get a named storm in August. The other 4 years were 3 El Nino years and 1 Neutral. So not only is this already rare but insanely rare since this is might be the first La Nina season ever recorded without a named August storm in history. The timing is definitely interesting considering we're at about the point now since eruption where the lag period goes away and you start seeing more noticeable effects from a volcanic eruption. If any of you remember Mount Pinatubo in 1991 it took almost a year for any of its global effects to start becoming noticeable. 2 years after that eruption gave my town the coldest temperature ever recorded in its history during the peak of the effects in 1993, we also coincidentally had the Storm of the Century which some scientists argue was influenced by the effects of the Pinatubo eruption. Thing is Tonga isn't Pinatubo so I wouldn't expect it to have very strong effects globally imo

Just got issued a special weather statement here. The storms that were coming towards me were falling apart but then right before it got here a small cell formed. Getting some nice thunder and lightning right now. This might be some of the best thunder and lightning I've had all year lol

That's actually extremely interesting. If we don't get a named storm by the 31st that would make it even more of an extreme oddity considering this is a La Nina year. Also I went and checked and 1961 was a neutral year. So if it happens then 2022 would be the first time during a La Nina year

I mean to be fair on average we usually only have maybe 2 or 3 named storms by this point. So this isn't too weird. It'll be odd if barely anything forms once we hit September. That's why I never get myself hyped up with forecasts for an active season because there's so many variables that can change and I'd rather look at what's happening a week down the line rather than what could happen months down the line. We also can't expect every year to be like 2020 and 2021, eventually the Atlantic has to take a break from all that record activity and recharge.

Oof I don't want that. I just want us to have a more normal fall for once. Having it be in the 60's and 70's at nighttime in the first half of October sucks. Especially after how hot this summers been I just want some nice cool fall temps, not too hot not too cold

The way I see it is it gives everyone more time to do stuff in the evenings outside when it's warmer out or during warm days in late fall/winter. But I can see why some might not prefer it. Like imagine it's december and we get a really nice 70 degree day but the sun sets at 4 pm. But with this the sun would be setting an hour later thus giving you an hour extra of time in the peak of the warmth. That's just my take on it lol

It's pretty interesting seeing that much rain fall there. I went to Phoenix when I was 14 once and we went there when it was during monsoon season so it rained a few days there. I still thought the heat there was overrated compared to a hot and humid day in central PA though lol

JB has sadly let social media rot his brain inside out. It sucks because I followed him to Weatherbell and loved his stuff and even paid for it. It's just sad seeing the changes to him over the years :/

Dorian was basically the next Andrew until it miraculously stalled at the last second and turned due north. I still can't believe that happened like that. Plus considering this is a La Nina year yet again I would expect it to at least not be a dud season

79 degrees at 2 am right now with a dew point of 72 so it feels way way hotter than that

Was curious how many times the temp has gotten over 90 degrees this year since April and so far I'm at 26 days at 90 or above

Had to drive around 11 am and it honestly wasn't bad with the windows down

Oof the dew point is vicious out there right now. 73 DP right now over here

Does anyone know what's with the system to our west? It almost reminds me of a derecho. It's supposed to come over to our part of PA later. I thought it wasn't supposed to rain this evening?

The low temp on sunday is supposed to be around 80 degrees. I hope you all have air conditioning lol

It looks like some places might crush their record high temp on Sunday. I know over here in Enola the record high was 96 and it might hit 99 that day. Though to be fair that record of 96 is the lowest record high for July so it wasn't going to be that hard to beat

Personally I've noticed I've had to keep my ac in multiple times into October and even halfway through October more recently. Before the 2010's I always took them out in early-mid September. Just the past few years alone there were extended stretches of days with lows in the high 60s/low 70s in October which is kinda crazy lol

The next 6 days are looking pretty toasty in the low to mid 90s