bkviking

I have hated the winters since 2012-13 since then it’s been a mass negative EPO driving winter after winter and I’m sick of it. I will always love 2002-2003 to 2010-11 far more. We’ve just had brutal and ruinous springs since the big climate change the massive EPO is now what determines winter.. and it’s sad bc it doesn’t measure up to the massive negative Ao/NAO era

Port Jefferson - snow squall warning now in effect

I wish he was right. I never considered this before but Oil bills are out of control. Gas is a little different , but with it. I hate hate seeing a - EPO build now . Just screw off cold producer. Just the theme since we swapped out of -AO/-NAO period ending 2011. EPO is becoming our main producer of cold and snow since 2011. I got my 40” of snow here Smithtown and would love a run at a record but it ain’t happening so - not happy with change in long range models at this point in season .

I’m Port Jeff Village now. Seems like 3/4

Thank you Walt . I’ve been waiting for someone to assess this issue - whether issue or not / but need someone to do it. So thank you

I’m with you and posted this in NE forum - I will say I was you but family photos and memories corroborate that that beast was our best :I lived in Sound Beach on north shore of LI and I still consider this the standard. Of course, I was younger and didn’t know how to compare it to anything else. Been through so many “Blizzards” now in life it’s hard to compare all these 20” storms other than to say I know the 1/29/22 blizzard had nice drifting and cold temps with no mixing issues. PD2 similar - just brutal cold before the storm and kinda windy and lotsa blowing snow. Some had more turbulence with thunder and insane snow rates (2/8/13, Boxing Day); some were novel - 1996 was the first really 20 incher on years. Still in my heart - 1978 holds a special place and seeing analysis all these years later it was a classic cold blizzard with some of the strongest winds of them all and biggest drifts - for my area on North Shore of LI.

Agree with you here. I lived in Sound Beach on north shore of LI and I still consider this the standard. Of course, I was younger and didn’t know how to compare it to anything else. Been through so many “Blizzards” now in life it’s hard to compare all these 20” storms other than to say I know the 1/29/22 blizzard had nice drifting and cold temps with no mixing issues. PD2 similar - just brutal cold before the storm and kinda windy and lotsa blowing snow. Some had more turbulence with thunder and insane snow rates (2/8/13, Boxing Day); some were novel - 1996 was the first really 20 incher on years. Still in my heart - 1978 holds a special place and seeing analysis all these years later it was a classic cold blizzard with some of the strongest winds of them all and biggest drifts - for my area on North Shore of LI.

You just had me check mine and yes - 1035mb so that’s good for 30.6” or something so quite high

DCA +1.2 NYC +1.0 BOS +1.0 ORD -1.4 ATL +1.2 IAH +0.6 DEN -0.4 PHX 0.3 SEA -1.2

Don thank you for keeping the board aware of the statistical odds for each combo of blocking for biggest snowstorms NYC and southwards. Like any good long term weatherboard follower (weenie) , I understand the role each type of blocking (EPO, PNA, AO, NAO) plays in our weather. I’m curious about the current storm bc I certainly believe the predicted lack of Mid and upper Mid Atlantic projected severe/historic totals makes sense without blocking. My question is , the AO in a negative phase suppresses the overall jet stream more south. Both you and Uncle W have shown the AO to be highly critical . But isn’t it the role of the NAO to block progression of storms and force them to consolidate and slow down ? Does the AO provide that - I know both indexes often correlate with one another but not always. My thought is we have the PNA to sharpen the trough and dump the cold but wouldn’t a -NAO be the best index to have ensured more of the Atlantic coastline saw historic totals?

DCA +1.1 NYC +0.9 BOS +0.8 ORD -1.6 ATL +1.2 IAH +2.8 DEN -0.7 PHX +1.5 SEA -0.3

Joe B quoting our very own Don S.

DCA + 1.2 NYC +1.3 BOS +1.0 ORD +1.2 ATL +1.6 IAH +1.8 DEN +2.5 PHX +2.8 SEA -0.5 DCA 8” NYC 28” BOS 42" ORD 44” DTW 25” BUF 88” DEN 55” SEA 22” BTV 85”

Small hail here in Smithtown. Wind, leaves blowing down. Nice!

DCA +0.2 NYC +0.4 BOS +0.5 ORD -1.0 ATL +0.2 IAH +1.3 DEN +1.5 PHX + 1.4 SEA +1.0

Pretty nice rain squall here in Ronkonkoma now. Tiny little thing on radar but had some gusto.

Pretty miserable out here on Island - Port Jefferson. All the hallmarks of rotten weather - low clouds, drizzle, blowing east winds. Reminds me of April and May weather out here.

DCA +1.9 NYC +1.8 BOS +1.9 ORD +2.6 ATL +1.5 IAH +1.2 DEN +1.6 PHX +1.0 SEA +0.3

Bluewave - please update your chart for number of rainy weekends in a summer. Never thought we could beat 2009 awfulness. Here we are.

Are you out on duty tonight in this? What have you seen? It’s bad out here on Island but for most part we escaped the bulk of it - though making up ground now

Tornado Warning Northern Suffolk County now

DCA +0.6 NYC +0.9 BOS +0.8 ORD +0.3 ATL +0.3 IAH +0.3 DEN +1.2 PHX +0.2 SEA +0.8

In Smithtown and woke up with creasing thunder - and saw radar- wow - classic overnight storms for LI. Full on lightning display out there and not much movement of cells.

I believe Miller Place was core of snow capital. @NorthShoreWx produced great maps showing that but I lived it. Still thing Huntington and eastwards was snow capital. Now euro shifts west again. Windshield wiper. I get it too - this is so unusual: we have a NAO block and and an approaching upper level low - but not the usual slingshot up to our area. Even Sandy moved once it hit the much stronger block. This thing with landfall and lingering NW turn followed by eventual turn NE is interesting.

I moved from my long term stronghold in Miller Place to Smithtown and while adoring storms and would embrace whatever happens, I prefer this “hurricane” just keep away if it’s not gonna be big impact. Isaias seemed so puny last year and the storm was inland NJ or something but damage and power outrages on Long Island we’re too much. As said, I’ll be first to try and embrace a 1938 coming our way - but - don’t want this pesky fly to ruin things with our third world power grid.