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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Wow
  2. Heisy
  3. Heisy
    Someone might get NAMed here depending on temps
  4. Heisy
    We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before
  5. Heisy
    One of the weirdest run ups to a storm in a long time
  6. Heisy
    Last time I saw it used was 2020 storm and it did well. Obviously we’re not getting 20” unless this is a jan25 2000 bust This has been one of the more interesting storms I’ve tracked. The high end ensemble members kind of make me depressed because it just shows what a full phase could have done
  7. Heisy
    GFS on board now!
  8. Heisy
    18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far
  9. Heisy
    I’m not sold on Ai solution. Something like the Euro OP makes more sense to me. Still, weird to see changes this much at 72 hours, goes to show you how fragile this phase is
  10. Heisy
    …and we’re back to where we were yesterday. Ha
  11. Heisy
    This map is close to a bonafide “woof” I’ll really bark once we get it to day 7 lol
  12. Heisy
    It also has a nice CAD event around the 23-24th, which is a time period that’s starting to look fun
  13. Heisy
    Not horrible, I actually though H5 looked better than 12z, but it was a slight step back with snow totals
  14. Heisy
    18z euro Ai really close to a big dog here. As is still a good run with front end frozen. Solid confluence HP in the lead up This time range is starting to get interesting
  15. Heisy
    18z gfs actually got some light snow to our area. My gut tells me we’ll see the 18z euro Ai take a step back, but man if it gets even better it’ll be get your popcorn ready time. 18z gfs with a 2016-like MECS day 10-11. Winter isn’t over yet
  16. Heisy
    Gets .3+ to us, but too warm for city ha Still, nice nod towards the AI
  17. Heisy
    18z icon showing better alignment with N/S
  18. Heisy
  19. Heisy
    another tidbit, the 12z euro Ai result is the same thing the Ai ensemble mean and eps have been showing last two runs
  20. Heisy
    Exactly, just one small timing change with that N/S piece resulted in this, but having literally 0 other guidance showing this is a weird place to be considering how good the Ai is like you said
  21. Heisy
    Euro gets precip to us at least but it missed the phase
  22. Heisy
    Just a small change with the northern stream timing and angle was able to just get some lift up to our region. Probably another mirage, who knows
  23. Heisy
    All the 12z guidance total whiff and then the euro Ai does this, wth is going on with this event, so weird lol
  24. Heisy
    Got pumped faked by the euro, the new Andre miller of the weather models. Next 2 weeks look toasted. Hibernation mode for me.
  25. Heisy
    End of the 12z rgem vs 6z euro. Note how the euro has the northern stream more angled to drop in and phase. No other model is really showing this. The rgem has a stronger southern vort but we really need the N/S to help this thing. Tough event for models, euro hasn’t been consistent hard to trust it
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