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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Right there with ya. Second big “what if” event of the year. The ensemble members/few OP runs that dove that N/S farther W produced MECSs. Sucks knowing how close we were to something big.
  2. Heisy
    24th range still has an outside chance. It’s the next time frame that could produce snow. Couple shortwaves track east from the western trough, knocking down the ridge some. If we can time the last of the bunch well it could work out. 6z euro Ai gave us a modest event.
  3. Heisy
    Whatever happens tomorrow night, enjoy it, LR looking kind of toasted at the moment. Alaskan pig
  4. Heisy
    This is what’s possible if the shortwave comes in sharper and farther S, such an interesting event, could go all wrong or be a big positive bust
  5. Heisy
    Philly is literally right on the edge R/S line
  6. Heisy
    Wow
  7. Heisy
  8. Heisy
    Someone might get NAMed here depending on temps
  9. Heisy
    We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before
  10. Heisy
    One of the weirdest run ups to a storm in a long time
  11. Heisy
    Last time I saw it used was 2020 storm and it did well. Obviously we’re not getting 20” unless this is a jan25 2000 bust This has been one of the more interesting storms I’ve tracked. The high end ensemble members kind of make me depressed because it just shows what a full phase could have done
  12. Heisy
    GFS on board now!
  13. Heisy
    18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far
  14. Heisy
    I’m not sold on Ai solution. Something like the Euro OP makes more sense to me. Still, weird to see changes this much at 72 hours, goes to show you how fragile this phase is
  15. Heisy
    …and we’re back to where we were yesterday. Ha
  16. Heisy
    This map is close to a bonafide “woof” I’ll really bark once we get it to day 7 lol
  17. Heisy
    It also has a nice CAD event around the 23-24th, which is a time period that’s starting to look fun
  18. Heisy
    Not horrible, I actually though H5 looked better than 12z, but it was a slight step back with snow totals
  19. Heisy
    18z euro Ai really close to a big dog here. As is still a good run with front end frozen. Solid confluence HP in the lead up This time range is starting to get interesting
  20. Heisy
    18z gfs actually got some light snow to our area. My gut tells me we’ll see the 18z euro Ai take a step back, but man if it gets even better it’ll be get your popcorn ready time. 18z gfs with a 2016-like MECS day 10-11. Winter isn’t over yet
  21. Heisy
    Gets .3+ to us, but too warm for city ha Still, nice nod towards the AI
  22. Heisy
    18z icon showing better alignment with N/S
  23. Heisy
  24. Heisy
    another tidbit, the 12z euro Ai result is the same thing the Ai ensemble mean and eps have been showing last two runs
  25. Heisy
    Exactly, just one small timing change with that N/S piece resulted in this, but having literally 0 other guidance showing this is a weird place to be considering how good the Ai is like you said
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