Heisy

At this range it it’s just good to see that snow is possible in this pattern somewhere nearby. Not the best looking pattern but the OPs and Ais keep hinting at some frozen potential 14th-16th. Good to see

Only issue is as of yesterday’s runs it’s getting away from a full reversal. We’ll see how today’s charts look

Surprised @mitchnick didn’t post the 18z AiGFS for 14-15th. Maybe a touch too warm, but it times two waves pretty well

Sudden stratospheric warming coincides with above average temp periods for us so it makes sense. Statistically there is about a 70% chance we get normal or below normal temps in a few weeks (if the SSW happens) so hang in there

13-14th is certainly the next legit chance. Airmass issues as the 50/50 is cut off from the flow and we have that ride bridge effect. Ensembles are in good agreement for that ridge Feb 10-11. However, we can have it work out if energy from the trough out west is able to come out in pieces that way we get at least one or two fronts to knock down the ridge. We don’t want it coming East as one big shortwave. 6z AiGFS showed an example of this. It sent a wave across in the 10-11th range which knocked down the ridge. It ended up being just too warm for us, but close enough. We’ll see how it evolves

Ha see I’m the opposite. Im a snow lover that hates the cold, give me a 60s and sun all month and one HECS mixed in would be heaven for me.

I’m certainly not saying we can’t score something during -PNA. Just going off of what the models are showing today. I just find it interesting how it’s pairing up perfectly with the SSW that is likely to happen and how they generally play out

I’m not a SSW expert, just relaying info from mets on Philly discord. We generally thaw during SSWs, which makes sense since a thaw is now showing up on the modeling over the next 10+ days coinciding with the SSW Account for the normal lag effect from a SSW we’re probably below normal or normal temps near beginning of March.

Also the PV split, SSW event gives us a good chance at a good March

Yeah it looks pretty likely that it is going to happen, question becomes, can we recover? The -PNA looks pretty rock solid. I bet we see some old fashioned Lakes cutters mid month/second half of the month. This is normal for any winter to go through thaw periods. It’s not a bad time for it to happen if we can get a reload by March. See what happens

Any official reports? I wouldn’t doubt someone hit 2’+ I was watching that deformation zone pivot all day and night. Incredible. Wish I had the time to have chased this one

After whatever happens next week I think we’re shutout until around mid month, 15th-end of the month should open back up opportunities. At least that’s how it’s looking currently.

Yea same, I’ve been watching the radar all day/night out there. Someone def hit 20” I’d be very surprised if not

I hope, I’m a little worried about ridge bridge of death right before mid month. Can see it on the AiGFS and some other models. We’ve been able to avoid it so far so hopefully that continues. Too far out to know yet of course. I agree we’ll have multiple chances rest of year regardless though. It’s on the Euro OP too ugh

It seems the PV split is happening, Smarch? Others understand this stuff more than I do

Differences between that and the 12km are nuts. Probably have to take a blend of other guidance for a forecast down there.

The Ai models shouldn’t really be used for QPF for this reason. H5? Different story.

I know verbatim the gfs didn’t work out, but it did trend like the Ai, slowing down the wave and shifting ridge W. If this thing is going to come up the coast that’s a good way to start so I’ll take it as a positive overall.

I put more stock into the GFS Ai vs the OP so this gives me a little hope. Been saying since yesterday this is a pretty simple setup. Could all go to crap, but I feel pretty confident with this. 18z gfs backed up the western ridge, I bet it shows a strong event

Trough slowed down on the OP. Could see improvements on it as well. The Ai showed a stronger system because it was slower and this allowed time for that pesky tpv to clear out

18z gfs ai, this is almost the perfect mid Atlantic track

It’s the icon so it doesn’t mean a whole lot, but this run would have been pretty nice for mid Atlantic. Confluence relaxed. Let’s start happy hours off right

Down the line western trough/-PNA showing up, if we hold the blocking and run that energy into the cold that’s built up I could see some major mid month storm like we saw with the last event. Hopefully we can avoid any ridge bridging in the east

Sorry, trust me I’m just as annoyed. Pattern is synoptically really good, we just gotta get a little luck already.

Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well