Heisy

Tail end of the tpv phasing with the southern energy again this run it seems. .

Woof .

00z geps had a big time signal for the Feb 1-3 period 6z AiGFS has a MECS 6z GFS elongated TPV, phasing Fun times ahead hopefully .

Euro doesn’t look far off at the end of the run, maybe a late development, but it’s close .

Need the ridge out west to hold as long as possible. .

Bias into play. It keeps the CCB snows over PA when other models have it up near Canada lol. I’m not going to say it’s “impossible”, but it’s likely wrong of course and will gradually correct itself For Philly I’m going 4-7” then sleet. I know I’m on the low end, but I’m just going off how these types of events generally play out here. .

GFS about to go off with the next weeks wave. It’s crazy, this shortwave actually originates from the front that’s clearing next 1-2 days. It rotates back around the TPV and is forced back south because of the block. Wild .

The pattern is very similar to this week. We just have to see if the northern stream can elongate after the ULL day 6-7 occurs. And then once again if any pac energy can escape under the ridge. .

Better in, better out. More accurate current obs data into the wx models should create more accurate forecasting .

The CMC parallel is going to replace the cmc soon. I’ve been looking at it for this upcoming Sunday event. It has been absolutely consistent in showing the phase and the primary running farther N than every other model for days now. Last night’s 00z run blew up the 1/30 wave. End of 6z euro had more sagging to the back side of the ULL. We’ll see if it’s able to dive far enough S to develop a strong coastal. .

Almost every OP model has the same general look for the 31st-1st as our block retrogrades south. .

FWIW the cmc parallel which will be replacing the cmc eventually has been showing a full phase run after run. The 18z euro looks almost spot on to its 12z run. Just throwing that out there .

Well at least when it does trend N they’ll get a crippling ice storm so he’s not wrong lol .

VA in a sweet spot because they’re going to cash in on the WAA goods one way or another it seems. The phase adds risk but also rewards for us. With the phase it’s been slowed a day so still 6+ days out we still have a long way to go .

Yes the phase adds a new layer of caution and risk. VA is in a good spot because they’ll cash in on the WAA goods one way or the other it seems I’m likely just staying here. If Philly gets completely screwed then this was likely either well over phased or compressed and it wasn’t historic for anyone. I can see a word where the NW burbs end up being the place to go if we see a pd2 type progression .

The phase looks like the current favorite with the ensembles leaning that way. The Ai jumping on board at 6z and OP having it back to back runs. .

EPS had more interaction between the N/S wave and the STJ low, also moved the TPV farther NE. , and had better tilt to the trough. I wouldn’t rule out a PD2 type progression. Especially if we see more phasing happen between that N/S wave (which is important for us northerners). Everything is really still on the table at this range. Just small timing differences between these 3 main features changes everything. .

This is the most nerve racking part of the hobby, we’re at that day 6 range with a potential MECS in the cards. Been years since we had a potential event like this. Here, we, go .

Not that it matters since it’ll be different at 00z, but I don’t think the euro was coming any farther N than it was at the end of its run. My guess is a light-mod snow event if it played out post 144. There was a shortwave sitting over the lakes that was about shunt everything E. We’ll see how the N stream eventually orients itself. Here is 18z euro vs the Ai to better illustrate… .

You got a guest room if this verifies?! lol sheeeesh .

Long way to go, but right now I’d feel really good if I’m a weenie in NC, S half of VA. N SC 18z Euro Ai is a huge hit fyi .

18z gfs vs 12z euro Ai, look at the difference In confluence strength. .

AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4. One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind. There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behind Over the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea. .

The big thing is getting that STJ energy to eject E 12z ai made a huge progression change in doing that. The prior 6z run buried it under the ridge If it really does head east this is the best chance for a MECS in a decade. .

6z Ai puts all its eggs into the 28-29 range HECS setup .