Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Welp, a wrapped up bomb is probably out the window. Excellent job by the euro OP to never give in. On the other hand, there is still room to get a respectable event out of this, especially closer to the coast you get. The 6z rgem sharpened the trough a lot vs 00z. Nice improvements on 6z euro and Ai. Gotta make some baby steps. I really want to see more improvements on today’s runs.
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I’m more worried about tucking and a NE/interior event. Models sometimes underplay strengths of shortwaves headed from Colorado region. On the plus side the 50/50 is timed absolutely perfectly. I’m still at the “what could go wrong” stage. This is why we play the game though ha. Cautiously extremely excited, those 6z ai runs were pure porn
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Sweeping 00z suite so far… euro next?!
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00z AIGFS another trend SE with weaker primary, almost a blizzard this run. One or two more ticks SE
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Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match
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Except aren’t we in 2-3 until maybe right when the storm hits?
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Close to a blizzard on the ukie.
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Spacing between the lakes ULL and our wave might be problematic, but this was a huge change and nod towards the good camps. It actually has the storm. Last model we need is the cmc
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Euro might join the party here
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PAC wave better consolidated out west look at the changes there
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The pac giving the models problems. Play gfs/icon vs cmc H5 and you can sort of see why they’re doing what they’re doing. I don’t like that the 6z euro is camp cmc, but hopefully that changes here soon
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Here is ukie, Gotta see temps first not sure where it goes from there. CMC has completely different spacing vs icon/gfs/ukie. Would like to see the euro/ai be in the good camp. PAC is likely to give models some issues next 2 days or so until the progression is settled on
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Hard to get excited until we see the cmc and euro come on board. Wave spacing coming off the pac is the reason we’re seeing large differences in the models. Let’s see what rest of 12z shows
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Icon will be a massive hit this run
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Didn’t see it posted, but 18z euro op looked potent end of run, strong main shortwave, there was a ULL NW of Maine about to swing SE and nice compressed flow ahead of our shortwave
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Woof. Strong shortwave, and confluence was setup nicely with that ULL Nw of Maine rolling SE. that would have been a pretty big hit imo
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Euro Ai, OP and EPS now on board for 24th event heh End of Ukie looked decent, gfs and cmc were getting there
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Right there with ya. Second big “what if” event of the year. The ensemble members/few OP runs that dove that N/S farther W produced MECSs. Sucks knowing how close we were to something big.
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24th range still has an outside chance. It’s the next time frame that could produce snow. Couple shortwaves track east from the western trough, knocking down the ridge some. If we can time the last of the bunch well it could work out. 6z euro Ai gave us a modest event.
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Whatever happens tomorrow night, enjoy it, LR looking kind of toasted at the moment. Alaskan pig
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This is what’s possible if the shortwave comes in sharper and farther S, such an interesting event, could go all wrong or be a big positive bust
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Philly is literally right on the edge R/S line
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Wow
