I personally think the March 4-10 time frame has a chance to produce. As long as the -EPO has formed like the ensembles showing by then the tpv is farther SE. just depends if we get hurt by -PNA or not .
The wave around the 28th is likely a rain event here unless we see a more meridional flow ahead of it which would also take the TPV farther SE like we saw on last nights GFS. I’m not out on the first 2 weeks of March though. .
12z Nam finally looks like the euro and other models, lesson learned for others, never use this model outside 18 hours. Once the event starts I like to look at it to see last second trends but that’s about it .
One Difference between gfs and euro is that placement of the TPV by day 6 or so. GFS is farther SE. would like to see the euro trend that way over next few runs, although my $ is on the gfs just being wrong but we’ll see. It’ll just speed up the chances of frozen precip .