rjvanals
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Anyone else concerned looking at the Euro soundings around DC? The snow growth zone temp is as follows: 9z: -8.6 12z: -7.6 15z: -5.4 18z: -4 This should be a big red flag if we're counting on ratios or even a shot at double digits around the metro imo.
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Looking at the Euro soundings on Pivotal we don't get into the good snow growth zones this run around DC so even when we stay snow we're not going to get great ratios
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Hopefully it'll be mostly sleet as the warm layer is pretty high up allowing for a ~5k foot cold layer that maybe deep and cold enough to refreeze raindrops before they hit the surface. I saw this skiing at Mt. Tremblant where it was 15f at the summit with freezing rain while ~2000 ft below in the village it was a heavy sleet storm.
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I know I’m in the minority, but sleet is actually pretty fun—as long as we get a solid front-end thump. And as a fan of snow cover, nothing preserves it quite like a thick layer of sleet on top.
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Once we start getting into range the NAMs especially the 3k have been pretty good at picking up hidden warm layers missed by the globals
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If I remember correctly we had sleet in the huge February 2003 storm as well with temps in the teens?
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As someone who likes power I really hope we can avoid freezing rain with temps around 20
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Let’s hope the GFS scores another coup like the other 2 MECS it’s predicted this winter
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It's the GFS. Toggle through the last 4 runs to find out how "consistent" it has been before freaking out
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We had sleet for a few hours in the 96 storm in Potomac
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Way too much early celebrating around here. We have 120 hrs for things to go wrong and every 6 hours we go from “don’t worry it’s the GFS” to the GFS is amazing
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I’ll be on total tilt as well since it’s had 2 MECS within 100 hrs for the area and been wrong so hopefully it’s just as wrong on this one as well. Having it finally score a coup on this potential storm would be so tilting.
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Wasn’t the GFS predicting a crippling blizzard for this past weekend 100 hrs out?
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This is the type of storm we’d of scored something measurable even in DC 20 years ago as we only missed by a degree or two. We had well below normal temps with precip at night during our coldest time of year along with temps at 850mb well below freezing and we manage to fail. Very disheartening even though it’s a “small bust”
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GFS can’t even get tomorrows storm right and we’re freaking out about a storm 8 days out?
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Don’t look at the GFS
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It's super frustrating that we're going to be well below freezing at 850mb in the dead of night during our coldest time of year and still manage to rain. Tomorrow will register as a well below normal day with precip and we still can't really score.
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They’ve actually juiced up but were a degree or two to warm and we waste a lot to rain
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NAMs are warm
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.25" here this morning with streets briefly caving
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Euro gives DC nearly an inch tonight let's see if its right (although it might be sleet looking at soundings)
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GFS wants to bring us some snow tv tomorrow midday
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the heavy rates will cool the column
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The GFS not being excited about it makes me more optimistic
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not quite a shutout as we got a trace or .1 early morning on New Years Day but this month has been an epic disaster considering the hype and the phantom GFS blizzards torturing us each time
