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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    12z Euro ensembles are a bit east but most give us some snow but no real high end potential
  2. rjvanals
    The GFS is now in NAM at 84 hr territory
  3. rjvanals
    An IVT working out in the metro area is as likely as the Nats winning the WS this year
  4. rjvanals
    While the end result was what we wanted are we just going to ignore the significant synoptic changes from 18z in how it got there?
  5. rjvanals
    All our snow so far has been from the IVT not the coastal so far in the 00z cycle
  6. rjvanals
    Looks like 80% give us at least a inch but only 15% greater than 4"
  7. rjvanals
    One thing to look at today is if there's a severe weather outbreak over the southern Il and IN and spreading east which the Euro is predicting vs the GFS which is predicting less of a outbreak that dies out quickly as it moves east
  8. rjvanals
    There's going to be some convection today over the central US which once its resolved should give us a better idea of what happens downstream
  9. rjvanals
    Glad you noticed this as well since it's what caught my eye looking for how the storm evolved on both the GFS and EURO
  10. rjvanals
    The GFS needs massive investments since it’s a national security problem being this inaccurate at such short ranges
  11. rjvanals
    Canadian is a bit different than the GFS
  12. rjvanals
    I'll be checking in here on Monday morning after shoveling my 30 inches of GFS digital snow
  13. rjvanals
    Most of us will be waking up to bare ground Monday morning cursing the GFS
  14. rjvanals
    The only thing it’s been consistent about all winter is being wrong.
  15. rjvanals
    One thing holding down accumulation is the surface temps suck during the day on Sunday
  16. rjvanals
    The GFS is 0-3 in predicting a major snowstorm within 96 hrs this year. Maybe we’ll avoid a sweep?
  17. rjvanals
    We all know the 0z GFS will be skirting Bermuda
  18. rjvanals
    Euro Weeklies don't look great unfortunately
  19. rjvanals
    This phantom storm has March 2001 vibes
  20. rjvanals
    There’s no question it’s harder to snow now than it was 50 years ago as we lose 1 or 2 marginal events per year. OTOH suppose we hit on the storm last February and 2 weeks ago? Both missed due to phasing issues not warming issues. We’ve been extremely unlucky on big storm chances the past few years.
  21. rjvanals
    Euro is so frustrating since w heavier precip we’d probably get snow even into the metros w surface temps of 34
  22. rjvanals
    All the phasing is just giving us more cold rain here in the DC metro so let’s hope the GFS is wrong per usual
  23. rjvanals
    GFS snows west of the fall line this run
  24. rjvanals
    It wouldn’t be shocking—but if you look at the soundings, we’re barely isothermal, which leaves us no room for error.
  25. rjvanals
    The lack of replies shows how well the GFS is regarded
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