frostfern

In this kind of situation a supercell can build right into the stronger instability so much that it doesn't need as much deep layer shear as you'd think. The thing going against tornadoes is rapid upscale growth into QLCS mode, like the typical summer situation. Wind damage is pretty likely with embedded RFD features as there's a nice dry layer aloft right above the juice.

It looks like a typical July/Aug nocturnal ridge-rider. They always turn more right compared to what models show.

I'm seeing some green here on the west side of the state. The dominant natural canopy trees here are red maples and red and white oaks, and those are still rather bare looking, but I see small green leaves on a lot of the ornamental trees and understory trees. Norway maples, birches, and elms are all getting green.

Well, December is the new severe season.

The heat arrives earlier and then intensifies towards the end of the week in the latest runs. The only question is if there is any convection around Monday through Wednesday. It doesn't look like any proper cold fronts, just a weak little upper waves brushing by. By the end of the week everything is firmly capped except the far northwest, so it can get hot most places so long as the SE US upper cutoff doesn't retrograde earlier than forecast. Those upper cutoffs are so fickle though.

What is it with Michigan and boring springs lately. When it finally warms up its always this meandering blocky shit that shunts the jet way northwest. Same thing every year. What does it take to get a more zonal pattern that pushes shear and instability farther east than the Mississippi? Lately it's either a constant trough or a strung out meandering ridge with nothing in between.

Well, then Iowa and eastern Minnesota. These amplified blocky patterns are fickle. Cooler air coming in from the periphery of the SE cutoff will put an end to 80+ temps before the western trough gets anywhere near. It will probably still be in the 70s though, even with showers around. Much better than a polar trough, but still a boring pattern.

Yea, northwest Wisconsin. Still looks boring for Michigan :(. Retrograding subtropical cutoff eats up the ridge from the east with no fanfare. zzzzzzzz

Is it squished straight south or shunted more east instead of due north? I'd prefer the later is it would mean better chances of interesting weather in my area. The northern edge of thermonuclear cap with thermonuclear cape values just to the south can be fun.

The models show the ridge shooting up past James Bay. It could hit 90 in Northern Ontario with what's being shown. At least any areas where the soil is sufficiently dry.

I don't have a personal gauge, but GRR is 9.52". Most of it fell as steady rains as opposed to downpours so it feels like it's been very rainy.

It will be fun watching the leaves suddenly grow like mad when this torch arrives. A lot of buds are open giving a yellowish hue here and there, but the canopies are still looking pretty brown and naked.

Euro is showing a brief torch potential around the 9th through 11th. It's a little early for comfort, given it can STILL freeze until the middle of May given recent trends. Hopefully less likely this year with wetter soil. Would prefer some 70s. Mid 80s for one day then back to 50s with nothing in between is quite annoying.

Warm anomalies in the south and cold in the north help the cause for severe weather. It's usually a miss south for the GL, but it means more shear if a there is a good northern stream low to draw the warmth up even briefly.

It's the time of year where if the sun came out we could hit 60. The real killer is the constant cloud cover. Stuck on the wrong side of one system after another. Now later in the week we get into one of those sh***y blocking patterns where it's actually warmer to the north because the sun is out while a cloudy cutoff hangs out to the south keeping things perpetually stuck in the 50s.

The dewpoint gradient out ahead of the warm front is pretty insane here in SW Lower MI. There is a jump from mid 20s in the northeast to 60 in the far southwest corner.

Its nice to hear a good loud crack of thunder finally. First of this year here. I had only heard a few very soft distant rumbles before.

Widely scattered lighting strikes with surface dewpoints in the low 30s. Weird pattern. Thankfully temperatures are hanging in the 50s so RH isn't very low. The spring greenup isn't far enough along to prevent torching.

Both GFS and Euro now have three rainy systems through May 10. Missing the warm sector by 100 miles or so each one. Sad.

Yea. I imagine it can be even worse just west of the lake with an east wind. MCS low cloud debris, east wind off the lake, etc... all conspire to prevent good surface warming. It does get increasingly possible to hit 60 even with a very cold trough overhead by the middle of May, but those pesky afternoon instability showers often knock it back into the low 50s before the day is done.

One of the annoying things if you're watching the 850 mb maps. I usually figure +10 C or more means at least 70, but then you have bunch of convection passing by to the south and you're socked in with that shallow cold cloudy layer and sitting at 48 F despite +12 C at 850. Ugly shallow inversion just north of the warm front always happens.

Go away.

The summer warming trend in the eastern US has not come with a lot of real heatwaves. It's just consistently a little bit warmer on average. 2012 was the only "extreme" summer in recent memory. 2018 ended up pretty warm in the north, but it was almost entirely due to humidity and lack of cold front penetration. A lot of humid days with highs in the middle to upper 80s and muggy nights around 70. 2017 was the only cool summer in recent memory. Most have been warmer than average, but without any major heat waves.

Will have to keep an eye on where the leading edge of the cloud cover ends up. Its almost like a reverse dryline.

I wonder how often it is that the first day to surpass 70 is also the first 80. GRR hit 82 today. Previous maximum was 67 on the 12th and 13th.