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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
  2. frostfern
    I’ve given up on chasing. Cells will be moving NE way too fast.
  3. frostfern
    I have only heard one semi-close lightning strike this season. Late April I think. All it does is drizzle lately.
  4. frostfern
    Almost everywhere in Michigan is crappy chasing territory. I will not drive under any core. In the past I drove up behind a small core and picked some 2" stones off the ground for pictures. Honestly, watching a squall line come in off Lake Michigan is usually what constitutes a good "chase" for me. It just hasn't happened this year so far.
  5. frostfern
    I don't think anything will get to the thumb until after dark. I need to see what SPC is saying tomorrow.
  6. frostfern
    What do y’all think of the chance for supercells tomorrow afternoon over Lower Michigan. Im thinking of driving up to Gaylord as the higher terrain seems more likely to break the cap. I’m thinking if something can get going it has the chance of dropping plains-style hail which is rare around here. It could also be a cap bust though.
  7. frostfern
    A training t-storm event seems possible for SE Lower MI Friday night into Saturday. The wind field is almost parallel to the front and instability will linger all night and into Saturday morning where the dewpoints are pooled up along the front. The models all trended towards the front slowing down and stalling.
  8. frostfern
    Most likely for me too. These strong EML caps don't break over Lake Michigan during the afternoon. The convection will probably happen after dark to the SE because the front slows down.
  9. frostfern
    It's nice that spring finally came after summer.
  10. frostfern
    The timing is bad for me as is usually the case. Typical Michigan. I pray to at least get SOME rain.
  11. frostfern
    The issue is the timing of the front and convection and/or debris ahead of it.
  12. frostfern
    Traverse City is a terrain-induced hot spot whenever the wind is SE. It's normally only about 3 degrees warmer though. It's strange as the lapse rate would have to be super-adiabatic on the extreme end to get 6 degrees warmer than Gaylord (based on elevation alone), but it has happened before. It's kind of a meteorological mystery to me how that city can get so toasty.
  13. frostfern
    The dewpoints crashed from above 70 yesterday afternoon into the low 40s this afternoon. 87 was the high both yesterday and today, so no temperature change. Just went from tropical warmth to semi-arid warmth. It seems like the mid-Michigan backdoor dryline is a new climate feature as of late.
  14. frostfern
    The first two I hardly noticed anything. This third one gave me a fever, dizziness, and upset stomach similar to when I had covid after thanksgiving, just without any cough or runny nose.
  15. frostfern
    Gross.
  16. frostfern
    It's getting murky here. Outflow is still a ways to the north, but some TCU with dark bases are now popping overhead, along with the southwest edge of the anvil blowoff. Sitting at 86/72. Soup.
  17. frostfern
    I'm not really expecting much severe, but a wet downburst situation with wind driven quarter size hail is certainly possible where any of the stronger updraft pulses suddenly collapse. Flash flooding potential is also really high. Too bad I'm feeling so sick from covid booster yesterday. Ugh. There's no way I'm driving around feeling this dizzy.
  18. frostfern
    Yea. If this pattern happened in mid-July it would be on par with 1995.
  19. frostfern
    Convection is backbuilding this way with 4000 J/KG CAPE to work with. Whether it actually makes it to MBY is kind of up in the air, but the outflow will probably get here.
  20. frostfern
    Tomorrow is tricky for GRR. If outflow from the scattered convection off to the north doesn’t make it to I-96 it could end up warmer than expected. The weak backdoor cold front never really materialized. A due south wind means minimal lake influence, so long as convection doesn’t pop up on the lake breeze and send outflow farther east.
  21. frostfern
    Should have known better than to trust models showing an MCS charging straight through a death ridge. The thing of interest here in West Michigan is the heat and humidity might overperform tomorrow. The weak backdoor cool front that was shown in the Euro isn’t really materializing. Due south wind usually means no lake influence here, unless there’s enough convergence to trigger some afternoon popups.
  22. frostfern
    These high amplitude blocky synoptic patterns never trigger good convection east of the Mississippi. The big pool of CAPE will probably retrograde northwest into Minnesota later in the week and all the severe will be there. Useless pattern.
  23. frostfern
    Grand Rapids MI is a general thunder graveyard.
  24. frostfern
    Model fail.
  25. frostfern
    The more southeasterly wind kept the humidity down earlier, but its getting muggier now.
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