frostfern

It looks like the mode will be slow moving semi-supercells just like last night.

Some models had a squall line, but in reality it remained hit or miss with backbuilding clusters and slow moving supercells. The low and mid level wind fields were nothing special, but it seemed like there was strong shear up at the anvil level preventing cold pool formation. The tops of the storm were being blown way to the SE. It being too humid for much evaporation (not to mention late at night) could also be part of it. I’m just happy I got lucky with a drought ending trainer locally when I wasn’t expecting much.

Last night was a pleasant surprise with direct hit of a slow backbuilding cluster right over southern Kent County. Lots of loud thunder for several hours. Best non-severe storm of the summer. I so much prefer this type of storm to a squall line that rushes through too fast to enjoy or provide good rain totals. Required a lot of luck.

Your corn dewpoints penetrated into MBY in Michigan for a more extended period than usual. Never hit 80, but had a good long stretch of 75+.

Monday might be a high temp bust for my area if we get storms or storm outflow tonight. Could use any rain at this point though, and Tuesday and Wednesday will not bust.

If it’s going to be this cold and miserable I don’t want to get gyped on the rainfall.

It would be nice to avoid smoke season altogether this year, Last July was horrible as well. Every cold front brought dense smoke and every ridge brought haze and humidity. I forgot what deep blue sky looked like for a bit.

It usually only happens in the spring, and stops around Chicago due to easterly component off Lake MI even then. I haven’t been paying attention because it’s just going to a chilly stratiform rainer with an embedded rumble or two IMBY.

Had a few quarter sized stones hit my sliding door around 4:30 PM. Most of the stones were probably .5” and soft looking, but some close to 1” were mixed in. I could definitely hear the bigger harder ones hitting sporadically. Had to warn my parents who live 1 mile away to protect their cars. No severe warning for this cell. I guess it’s hard to see a marginal hail core very close to the radar.

Little tornado near Bristol Indiana. CC drop.

When the line over Lake Michigan catches up to the stuff out ahead, there should be a big general wind bag event. My prediction.

Cass County has a tornado warning now. Somewhat of an embedded HP supercell in the line.

Something tightening up in Cass County MI now. Far SW Michigan still not out of the woods.

Don’t even have a severe yet. The fuel source is a bit elevated for tornadoes near 1-96, but we have a warm boundary layer this side of the lake, so the initial gusts could get crazy as the bow / comma pushes inland. The bottom thee rows definitely need the tornado watch as that area has decent surface based instability.

I don’t know, but the SW corner of Michigan might still be in play for a couple tornadoes. Higher dewpoints have finally surged north. Maybe the dying crapvection boosted the moisture but 2000 j/kg should be enough if it maintains.

I wonder if the cell merger well help steer it right at Kankakee, yet again. The track is so similar to the one in March. It’s isolated enough to produce multiple times.

That’s a nasty debris ball.

I just live here. I do have a met degree and used to storm chase a bit. I don’t pay for model data as much as others here, so I’m mostly in the same boat as you. I just have good weather intuition, usually. The mesoscale charts on the SPC page I find the most useful during severe weather. I know Michigan well because I grew up here.

No. I thought about it once. I’m disabled though.

Just thin translucent cirrus up here. There is some downdraft CAPE on this side of the lake as opposed to Wisconsin, so there could still be an evening squall with the strong low level jet mixing down in spots. It’s just the convection itself looks to be elevated and unorganized.

Yea. It looks like heavy rain chances are actually going up. Along and south of I-80 is where the sups will be though.

For you, yea. I’m 100% out of the game now. Reverse jinxing doesn’t work here. I was never buying the fantasy CAM hype.

So that elevated blob over Iowa now is what was supposed to be developing into a line of supercells and eventual deracho this evening on yesterdays fantasy CAMs? The lead MCV does seem to be slowing down and running out of steam. Temperatures are decent on this side of the lake. Dewpoints are just meh compared to yeasterday though. I just want some good beneficial rain. Hope I don’t get screwed out of that somehow.

Overnight crapvection shunted the real instability south as usual. Maybe 1-94 but I’m hosed up here. Michigan.

Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening. The caveat is it’s Michigan. The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence. It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer. Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep. But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.