frostfern
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Everything posted by frostfern
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Kind of reminds me of the tornado that crossed I-96 near Weberville on Aug 24, 2023. The bowing line segment swallowed a supercell that had formed out ahead, and it immediately produced a tornado.
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Tornado sirens here. Whatever it is, the circulation passed over, maybe a hair south of me. QLCS protrusion. Got a brief 60 mph gust. Just heavy rain and a few peas now.
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Garden variety precursor showers already had a ton of lightning. Ready 2 get rocked by the main line in the next hour.
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That’s a rain wrapped monster.
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Bloomington WI cell needs a tor warning now.
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Well, Madison just got walloped. Nasty wind driven hail and possible tornado. Waiting to hear from anyone there.
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Madison cell is now wrapping up too. Expect a tor warning soon. Mean looking hail filled RFD. Looks damaging. Edit: Now a cc drop and tornado warning. Could be damaging RFD winds also lofting debris.
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The one immediately behind it now seems to be gearing up to produce.
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Too bad it’s so far from the radar. Can’t really see to the surface. Any chasers on this one?
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Independence cell is now tornado warned.
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The biggest threat at the moment seems to be very large hail. Low level shear needs to increase to get more tornadoes.
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That Iowa cell already looks like its producing massive hail.
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Looks like another miss northwest stank for me tonight.
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Won’t even get much thunder here. Just smallish showers. Instability is always trash with deep SW flow in this area. Zonal 500 mb flow delivers more instability, even at night. You don’t need deep CAPE for tornadoes with extreme shear, but I’d rather have a good light show than a low-topped severe event.
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Mini-supercells are sneaky. Frankly un-chaseable though.
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Low topped event. Shallow CAPE.
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Hope the Michigan sloppy seconds pans out better than last time for me. Got screwed with the north and south split.
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Apparently there were a lot of wind gusts well over 60 mph under light stratiform rains over W Michigan between 12:30 and 2:00 AM. I don’t know for sure, but it seems like a possible wake low (or other mesoscale phenomenon) from weakening storms to the SW mixed strong synoptic winds down to the surface. These were warm winds with temperature up close to 70 degrees a, good 15 degrees above the dewpoint, so definitely not cool outflow.
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Yea. I think there was some kind of wake low from dying convection coming off Lake MI. The temp held up close to 70 during that wind here, which is weird at night this time of year.
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Was kind of dud except for Northern Lower and SW of Chicago. Hoping to get some thunder from the final line sinking south, if the tail end even holds together. Don’t need rain IMBY and more chances coming Thirsday at least.
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Split stank for me.
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If morning convection is mostly elevated and north of I-96 there will be more pristine soundings. A squall line coming through from the west too early in the day is also a problem.
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Timing issues for this side of the state. Tuesday afternoon could be ripe for large hail in the south central part of the state if a fresh EML advects in before the cold front. Tornado threat is contingent on local boundaries as usual. It’s foolish to completely rule out naders this time of year. Then again, it could be a complete miss south if there’s a lot of daytime crapvection outflow.
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Cool. I don’t recall any thundersnow this year around here. There was an ordinary rainy thunderstorm during the early January thaw here (don’t remember the date). That was the first here. March 6 and 10 were probably the most lightning strikes I have ever seen that early. The March 10 hail storm was better than anything in June or July the last few years. That sucker was strobing.
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It looks like the forecast high in the low 60s here comes just before dark. Meh.
