frostfern
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Everything posted by frostfern
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The biggest threat at the moment seems to be very large hail. Low level shear needs to increase to get more tornadoes.
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That Iowa cell already looks like its producing massive hail.
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Looks like another miss northwest stank for me tonight.
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Won’t even get much thunder here. Just smallish showers. Instability is always trash with deep SW flow in this area. Zonal 500 mb flow delivers more instability, even at night. You don’t need deep CAPE for tornadoes with extreme shear, but I’d rather have a good light show than a low-topped severe event.
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Mini-supercells are sneaky. Frankly un-chaseable though.
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Low topped event. Shallow CAPE.
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Hope the Michigan sloppy seconds pans out better than last time for me. Got screwed with the north and south split.
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Apparently there were a lot of wind gusts well over 60 mph under light stratiform rains over W Michigan between 12:30 and 2:00 AM. I don’t know for sure, but it seems like a possible wake low (or other mesoscale phenomenon) from weakening storms to the SW mixed strong synoptic winds down to the surface. These were warm winds with temperature up close to 70 degrees a, good 15 degrees above the dewpoint, so definitely not cool outflow.
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Yea. I think there was some kind of wake low from dying convection coming off Lake MI. The temp held up close to 70 during that wind here, which is weird at night this time of year.
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Was kind of dud except for Northern Lower and SW of Chicago. Hoping to get some thunder from the final line sinking south, if the tail end even holds together. Don’t need rain IMBY and more chances coming Thirsday at least.
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Split stank for me.
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If morning convection is mostly elevated and north of I-96 there will be more pristine soundings. A squall line coming through from the west too early in the day is also a problem.
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Timing issues for this side of the state. Tuesday afternoon could be ripe for large hail in the south central part of the state if a fresh EML advects in before the cold front. Tornado threat is contingent on local boundaries as usual. It’s foolish to completely rule out naders this time of year. Then again, it could be a complete miss south if there’s a lot of daytime crapvection outflow.
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Cool. I don’t recall any thundersnow this year around here. There was an ordinary rainy thunderstorm during the early January thaw here (don’t remember the date). That was the first here. March 6 and 10 were probably the most lightning strikes I have ever seen that early. The March 10 hail storm was better than anything in June or July the last few years. That sucker was strobing.
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It looks like the forecast high in the low 60s here comes just before dark. Meh.
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That would be bad here in March. No way we don’t freeze hard after. By early May I’ll take it.
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Backdoor B-slap. East wind and 40s here too. Yesterday felt warmer.
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If only there was a wiki on Alek-speak. My favorites are “dab” and “jelly”.
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Wow! That looks like a PNW mountain snowpack. Maybe gone by June? lol
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I can’t handle the stress anymore. My nerves are shot. I’d go if others are in charge of driving and navigation / radar monitoring. I just want to be able to take footage.
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NW trend took me out of the ice and put me in the severe risk. Most likely elevated storms over a cold surface layer yet again. Don’t need any more heavy rain at the moment. Pre-greenup season really amplifies the effects of precip anomalies. Too dry you get fires, too wet you get floods.
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That is insane for synoptic wind! After long stretch of mostly uneventful weather, this March has been anything but boring.
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I’m debating going to the big lake to watch the waves.
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I may have to go to the lake to watch the waves. 16 footers possible. Might be some dry suit surfers out! I don’t know if the ice is completely gone yet at Grand Haven.
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I’ll pass on this ice storm bullshit.
