luckyweather

Just in time for the fall chairlift rides up Rib Mountain. They start for the season this week on Thursday night.

I was leaving the movie theater Monday in Machesney Park, IL and saw a guy on the side of the road with his flashers on and a skywarn sticker on the back. From inside the theater it sounded like just more of the same occasional tstorms of the past week. Was shocked to get home and find out the skywarn spotter was watching the brief tornado over Rock Cut state park, just outside the theater. Never warned and damage survey showed no damage, but I saw a spotter video and it was for sure a brief tornado.

Definitely seems like summer pushes further into fall and winter pushes further into spring since about 2005. I’ve really wanted to sit down and do the math and see if there’s more than perception to the prolonged season shift, just haven’t had the time yet.

A weak Central/Modoki Nino seems to be the safe bet right now. Kirk Mellish has a good analysis on the current state of the Pacific and brings the solar minimum into it as well. A good read. https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/winter-outlook-ingredients/VEEbp2GMylFzqdwql1ltRO/ Some excerpts: * source region may be Canada vs Siberia which would favor less brutal cold, even with a Modoki influenced eastern trough. * favors an active STJ * record few sunspots can favor high latitude blocking, snowier in the east, or have no impact at all * other potentially important factors like the goa blob, autumn Eurasian snow cover, etc are just not in range yet, and so things could really go any way, not yet a long range crystal ball.

I think it’s mostly just banter at this point, patterns and trends building toward patterns start coming in range for the first part of winter in October. Prior to that you’re just either talking about enso status or pure speculation. I don’t think it hurts to have a little of that here in the banter thread while we wait for things to come in range to the point where we can start having more serious fact and data based discussions. I wouldn’t mind a pre-winter conjecture thread but I get that then we’re getting in the territory of the New England winter weirdness.

70% nino probs by winter, make your call on his forecast accordingly.

Semi related, the topic of drought often comes up here. Short term seasonal droughts in the upper Midwest and upper plains are actually very normal. After the end of the last glaciation and after the temporary boreal forest gave way to oak hickory forest, it wasn’t very long before northern Illinois, parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin lost nearly all trees (except along waterways) and gave way to the prairies. Geology shows there was plenty of rainfall to support sustained forest, so the theory is that seasonal spring and fall droughts resulted in nearly annual burnings. In order for prairie to dominate for so long, those seasonal droughts had to be pretty regular. Large scale seasonal weather patterns seem to be rapidly evolving, so maybe this is a non point - but assuming the large scale patterns are generally the same as they have been for the last several thousand years, our modification of the surface in this region is preventing the annual burnings, allowing forest development, and so now we see the landscape we have today, but it isn’t natural or normal. Sustained multi year extreme droughts aren’t the norm, but temporary seasonal droughts are, and so when the topic of drought comes up here I actually am encouraged, as that has been the cyclical seasonal norm here for a very long time. A few additional tangents - 1) the large corn ground cover isn’t all that abnormal, yes corn is Frankensteined for maximum hardiness and rapid growth, but is still just another grass, which is the natural ground cover here; 2) large buffalo/bison herds here also contributed to the sustained prairie landscape.

Seen on Facebook: pic from a few days ago at Whealkate Bluff in South Range (MI) as they are clearing the trail for an event this weekend. Said they have run into snow several times so they finally stopped and took a pic. And it has been a hot summer up there so far!

Sitting on an aircraft on the tarmac at ORD where I’ve been sitting for about two hours, another ground stop as this next cell is inbound. Looks like I’ll be here for a while longer. Really need to take a leak.

Maybe this is more appropriate for the winter sports thread, but it’s pretty much died off at this point. I’m in Wausau, WI skiing Granite Peak this weekend, ski’ed last night, snow was the best of the season. I just saw that Mt Bohemia in the Keweenaw is staying open at least until May 6th, and Ski Brule near Iron Mountain is open until the snow is gone, and they have a lot of it. I fat tire biked last week after work on one of our snowfalls. I realize some folks have to work outside and have seasonal businesses where this just isn’t fun no matter how you look at it, so my apologies for my delight. This is absolutely unheard of in my lifetime - having this kind of snow around here to play with this late in the spring. Right at the two month mark before the days start getting shorter!

The situation in 1936 was pretty unique though - that was the heart of the dirty thirties and really the capstone summer of the dust bowl. That years heat as the plains baked created a runaway feedback loop. Farming and land management are so different in the plains, I can't say that heat won't be rivaled, but it will be for different reasons if it is. I hope we don't see a summer like that - I remember as a kid my great grandma telling me how her and my grandpa had to sleep outside in Forest Park in St. Louis every night for nearly a month with hundreds of others because it was too hot to sleep indoors.