1/7ish was first thing to look good from the start and still does .
Lot of convo May now drift toward that date and lessen acrimony . Mr Ji I think we have fun coming
I think waiting on indexes to do something’ does not work as well as just seeking when low pressure and high pressure will set up correctly for mid Atlantic.!I think 1/7ish is showing that. I now think it’s going to pull down quite cold air for 2-3 days after it departs
This continues to be the one I initially expressed interest in about 5 days ago
its the First snow maker sign for DC-low to south around Atlanta working northeastward with High around nipple of Hudson. That’s just light years better than low into lakes or some type of phasing scenario which usually skips DC. It might get shunted eastward but out to sea is closer to a better scenario for us than into the Lakes/Ohio valley
Around 8th still looks like a coastal to me and it needs to be. We get another cutter and all 20”+ forecasts for DC area are doomed. It nonsensical to keep in denial and default to “late season is Nino” Most Ninos feature below average temps from mid Dec thru end of Feb. One 10” snowstorm in mid Feb preceded and followed by 50 F does not a good winter make. We may be in a position where decades long prediction factors like Enso and NAO/AO just don’t work. We do see a lot of grasping about SSW and MJO but they are unproven.
As time moves on I wonder more snd more why there is so much worship of examples if weather that are 20-30 degrees differing and 400 miles east or west on the low every 6-12 hours.
We must start getting favorable tracks for low pressures and clippers or other mechanisms of bringing the cold down. Look for that instead of lows in The lakes and Ohio valley . Right now it’s just more of the same of delay and 10 days away until improvement
I got rebuked several times in this thread for discrediting a 12/28 12/29 pattern change Going from 55-60 for highs to 45-50 for highs is no change nor beginning of one to winter weather.
Lol at your misinformed self
SSW unproven and overrated and essentially unknown. So now we are back to 1/7 or 1/8 and no 12:28&29 and no 1/2&3 . But the 1/7& 8 is DEFINTE this time?
Several seasoned posters and some unknowns have been very adamant and quite chastising of us who are referencing the delay of a favorable pattern. 1/7 and 8 is your last shot for anyone to listen anymore . Any chirping about 1/15-1/20 that would begin just shows futility and denial