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WEATHER53

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Everything posted by WEATHER53

  1. WEATHER53
    Just had 44mph wind gust
  2. WEATHER53
    This sounds funky old fashioned but it’s almost like the gears don’t mesh and grind the same way anymore. That in turn seems to make the 3-5 days not solid anymore and we are down to 1-3 for solid accuracy
  3. WEATHER53
    Models do a good job with cold outbreaks. This is rollover cold coming in from Midwest which is not as good for us and cold that moves over eastern Lakes and se and down upon us. Those below zero readings in OV will moderate by 20F by time it gets here but that’s still around 20 for 7am Get that pouring in se from eastern lakes and we have a low around 5F.
  4. WEATHER53
    Delayed IS denied
  5. WEATHER53
    The winds on the Bridge coming up that very long fetch from the south is killer. I’ve been in some 45mph stuff that was scary . When it’s like winter cold fronts and very windy from nw it’s somehow not like 50 miles of open water
  6. WEATHER53
    Ra**y it gotten too hard. I would not miss like I did last one pre 2012. And it’s happened too much in last 12 years. Reliable enso the NAO and AO are not the predictors they once were. Solid cold air now moves out in a heartbeat. Planetary changes. What I accumulated from 1965 to 2012 does not prevail anymore Makes me assess interest
  7. WEATHER53
    It was still a big one three days out. Let see if models can do Anything accurate outside of 72 hours.
  8. WEATHER53
    From now on I’m going to wait until 24 hours remaining to comment
  9. WEATHER53
    Which usually means not nice is forthcoming
  10. WEATHER53
    Thanks for snow pics snd I’m getting more westerly component to wind and temp down 1.3F since 3pm which may be darkness oncoming or maybe Magic!
  11. WEATHER53
    Winchester and Frederick have really revitalized in last 1-10 years.!
  12. WEATHER53
    When did this weather discussion board become a model adherence board or watch out?
  13. WEATHER53
    And you ventured forth what?
  14. WEATHER53
    The models did another terrible job and within 4 days showed ranges of 1-11” . By yesterday most of them had a solution like what has happened. The most I ever went for was 3-6”. They very well may be the “best we have” but they didn’t get it until about 24 hours in advance so despite you being in denial, they do not warrant “respect” .
  15. WEATHER53
    Past prime sun time and I’ve dropped from 36.8 to 35.5. where is low centered? Maybe when it gets east of our longitude something better might happen.
  16. WEATHER53
    We have a forecasting technique which has undergone very little improvement in 20 years. Imagine if all other sciences had done same
  17. WEATHER53
    Frederick house reporting snow with close to 0.5” on grassy surfaces and 31F. 36 and sleet and rain here in Kemp Mill
  18. WEATHER53
    Sleet and rain and 34 Another lousy model outcome. I’ve seen 1-11” in last 5 days for me. The solution:Pour all the money into 72 hours or less. They can do that. Guidance? To what? -Failure !
  19. WEATHER53
    Actual at 8 is35 and predicted was 35.
  20. WEATHER53
    The reason those temps will be difficult is the clouds are here by 10-11pm and we won’t get the steady 1 degree per hour we did last night with clear skies thru dawn
  21. WEATHER53
    Actual at 5pm is 38 vs predicted 40 A good sign also is that most stations dropped 2/3F between 4 to 5pm
  22. WEATHER53
    I think we get sufficient clouds by 10pm to slow the temp drop to just 2/3 more degrees the rest of the overnight. I think its the low dews that have a slightly more positive effects
  23. WEATHER53
    Just now the snow line moves south and east. Looking at current conditions including unexpected snows well to sw and realizing dews and cold are durable for another 24-27 hours from now are likely creeping into NWS product and not just entirely what models say
  24. WEATHER53
    Just clutch your pearls and wait to be told what weather you can get
  25. WEATHER53
    At 1pm DCA has risen from 27F to 39F but dew point just from 16 to 19. That’s 4-1 which won’t hold at onset of steady but assures at least a 50/50 meeting between dews and air temp. Here’s how I see things for DCA so it would be better just 20 miles further north and west Friday 5pm. Clear 40 Friday 8pm Mostly clear 34 10pm increasing clouds 32/dew point 22 1am Cloudy 29/ 23 Temps steady thereafter 9am cloudy 35/25 10am steady light to moderate snow, 31/29
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