WEATHER53
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Everything posted by WEATHER53
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Frederick house reporting snow with close to 0.5” on grassy surfaces and 31F. 36 and sleet and rain here in Kemp Mill
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Sleet and rain and 34 Another lousy model outcome. I’ve seen 1-11” in last 5 days for me. The solution:Pour all the money into 72 hours or less. They can do that. Guidance? To what? -Failure !
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Actual at 8 is35 and predicted was 35.
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The reason those temps will be difficult is the clouds are here by 10-11pm and we won’t get the steady 1 degree per hour we did last night with clear skies thru dawn
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Actual at 5pm is 38 vs predicted 40 A good sign also is that most stations dropped 2/3F between 4 to 5pm
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I think we get sufficient clouds by 10pm to slow the temp drop to just 2/3 more degrees the rest of the overnight. I think its the low dews that have a slightly more positive effects
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Just now the snow line moves south and east. Looking at current conditions including unexpected snows well to sw and realizing dews and cold are durable for another 24-27 hours from now are likely creeping into NWS product and not just entirely what models say
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Just clutch your pearls and wait to be told what weather you can get
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At 1pm DCA has risen from 27F to 39F but dew point just from 16 to 19. That’s 4-1 which won’t hold at onset of steady but assures at least a 50/50 meeting between dews and air temp. Here’s how I see things for DCA so it would be better just 20 miles further north and west Friday 5pm. Clear 40 Friday 8pm Mostly clear 34 10pm increasing clouds 32/dew point 22 1am Cloudy 29/ 23 Temps steady thereafter 9am cloudy 35/25 10am steady light to moderate snow, 31/29
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Weather wise we are currently seeing unfolding right in front of us the effect of the strong cold high and low dews with unexpected snow to our sw i continue to doubt this low gets further north than Va/NC border or lower than 1000mb until it’s east-ene of OC There is considerable to look forward to
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When there is not instigation then there are no responses.
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Good points and thank you for identifying the instigator and I will consider being less responsive and more ignoring
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And noting due respect, name calling follows personal insults and disrespect
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There are lots of experience to be shared here. A few insist that only a few should do that.
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Incorrect. We just experienced the coldest, lowest dew point of the season and it got here about 20 hours ago and won’t go away quick
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Except further south on low and stronger high thwarts that
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Mid to upper teens dew points generally don’t give that away in 24-30 hours. Very stout high of 30.40+ the same. If you watch the center it’s been moving toward a path right along VA/NC border. I think we are good for accumulating snow right around DC but 20 miles to east and south more problematic
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Go up to Ole Mink Farm 1600’ and rent a cabin and text us
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The high gonna try
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Took a nice long break Im liking so many things . I know the dews won’t be nearly like this come crunch time but they will still be around 25 . Temp around 35 Baro above 30.25 now has risen stoutly since the dew point plunge. Sun is about zip now with solid cloud cover. Ground decently cold 48 hours leafing in More later
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Fresh surge of cold air this afternoon with few degree temp drop and dews falling 8/9/10 in two hours
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Dew point plummet warning in effect From 29 at 10am at DCA to 21 at 3pm
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Fresh cold air coming in now and I’ve dropped from 43.5 at 1:45 to 42.2 at 2:45. It will have been established here about 42 hours at onset. I like 36 best and don’t like 60+ . The drop in temp when dew point, temp and precip join together will rule the roost. I’m thinking we get a 50% meeting so if my backyard is 36/25 at 11am just at onset then I’m 31-32F at 85-90%rh
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Where is our nice package right now?
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So with the 6 hour wobbles and melancholy I am still at the same place I was Monday but now up to 85% probability of an area wide 3-6” from Camp Springs to Frederick I put out my checklist yesterday and will run that down item by item either late tonight or early Friday afternoon Moving from models to temps and dew points is a stable idea from now and forward . Looks like T minus 46 hours to liftoff!
