WEATHER53

Just now the snow line moves south and east. Looking at current conditions including unexpected snows well to sw and realizing dews and cold are durable for another 24-27 hours from now are likely creeping into NWS product and not just entirely what models say

Just clutch your pearls and wait to be told what weather you can get

At 1pm DCA has risen from 27F to 39F but dew point just from 16 to 19. That’s 4-1 which won’t hold at onset of steady but assures at least a 50/50 meeting between dews and air temp. Here’s how I see things for DCA so it would be better just 20 miles further north and west Friday 5pm. Clear 40 Friday 8pm Mostly clear 34 10pm increasing clouds 32/dew point 22 1am Cloudy 29/ 23 Temps steady thereafter 9am cloudy 35/25 10am steady light to moderate snow, 31/29

Weather wise we are currently seeing unfolding right in front of us the effect of the strong cold high and low dews with unexpected snow to our sw i continue to doubt this low gets further north than Va/NC border or lower than 1000mb until it’s east-ene of OC There is considerable to look forward to

When there is not instigation then there are no responses.

Good points and thank you for identifying the instigator and I will consider being less responsive and more ignoring

And noting due respect, name calling follows personal insults and disrespect

There are lots of experience to be shared here. A few insist that only a few should do that.

Incorrect. We just experienced the coldest, lowest dew point of the season and it got here about 20 hours ago and won’t go away quick

Except further south on low and stronger high thwarts that

Mid to upper teens dew points generally don’t give that away in 24-30 hours. Very stout high of 30.40+ the same. If you watch the center it’s been moving toward a path right along VA/NC border. I think we are good for accumulating snow right around DC but 20 miles to east and south more problematic

Go up to Ole Mink Farm 1600’ and rent a cabin and text us

The high gonna try

Took a nice long break Im liking so many things . I know the dews won’t be nearly like this come crunch time but they will still be around 25 . Temp around 35 Baro above 30.25 now has risen stoutly since the dew point plunge. Sun is about zip now with solid cloud cover. Ground decently cold 48 hours leafing in More later

Fresh surge of cold air this afternoon with few degree temp drop and dews falling 8/9/10 in two hours

Dew point plummet warning in effect From 29 at 10am at DCA to 21 at 3pm

Fresh cold air coming in now and I’ve dropped from 43.5 at 1:45 to 42.2 at 2:45. It will have been established here about 42 hours at onset. I like 36 best and don’t like 60+ . The drop in temp when dew point, temp and precip join together will rule the roost. I’m thinking we get a 50% meeting so if my backyard is 36/25 at 11am just at onset then I’m 31-32F at 85-90%rh

Where is our nice package right now?

So with the 6 hour wobbles and melancholy I am still at the same place I was Monday but now up to 85% probability of an area wide 3-6” from Camp Springs to Frederick I put out my checklist yesterday and will run that down item by item either late tonight or early Friday afternoon Moving from models to temps and dew points is a stable idea from now and forward . Looks like T minus 46 hours to liftoff!

50 miles east of OC would be perfect

Once it gets east of our longitude it will be snow again if it didn’t stay snow

So they will oscillate 20-30 miles rest of the way . I’m hoping by Friday 3pm ish that we can see what’s happening, For now just roll with the 6 hour . is that realistic time to be able to identify on Friday ?

So let’s get this thinking about models with some more responses. It’s being proposed to me that models are not a weather forecast. I disagree. They are a “tool” to help forecasters devise a forecast. I disagree. Their programming and programmers is Not that way and they are Not 4/5/6 different model types all strung together to assist in formulating a forecast each 6 hour period. They are in fact their own prediction of what the weather will be at, for example, 18z Saturday. It’s not a clue nor hint to be strung together with other models to develop a forecast: It Is A Forecast .

See that’s the evasive jibber jabber that helps models stay incompetent You are un successfully trying to parse that each 6 hour presentation is not indicative of upcoming weather but rather a “tool” Tool of what and for what? Why predicting forthcoming weather of course, see tool and Kaos get thrown around during deflections